Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:05 AM 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. We need the CPF to setup in a way to pull the air from Siberia instead of Russia. Siberian Express ftw !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:55 AM Nice looking redeveloping +PNA on the Euro ens late! Is it real or is it Memorex? That along with the cold 0Z 12/16 extended GEFS tells me that tomorrow’s Euro Weeklies, which run off the 0Z Euro ens, may be colder in weeks 3-4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM 9 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted Tuesday at 12:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:49 PM 53 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat. Climate Change has happened before and will happen again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617693898?journalCode=hola https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum#:~:text=The Maunder Minimum occurred within,believed to be volcanic activity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM 58 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat. Yes, that may be a factor adding instability to the current climate and changing things so previous analog years are less predictive. The effect is likely small over time currently but it is not well understood so it's effects are hard to pin down. General consensus is it makes things more extreme, droughts a bit more intense etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:09 PM 24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing And the bad thing is, it will take a while to break this pattern down. I can already see us here in Mid- January posting about February weeklies looking cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: And the bad thing is, it will take a while to break this pattern down. I can already see us here in Mid- January posting about February weeklies looking cold. We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years. Wall to wall cold almost never happens down here even in good years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: Wall to wall cold almost never happens down here even in good years. Agreed. Snowstorms around here are usually during that short cold period that is surrounded by above normal temperatures... The problem is, we aren't able to cash in on these cold streaks when they come. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:54 PM A helpful diagram I pulled from Twitter. Pacific jet is keeping any Canadian air from migrating down (surprised surprise) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:02 PM 2 hours ago, eyewall said: Wall to wall cold almost never happens down here even in good years. Really, never happens anymore. Many moons ago it occasionally did . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM https://x.com/ferragamowx/status/1869056213197152290?s=46 off topic but this is amazing work that many in this crew will appreciate 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM This is just.. sad. No cold to be found at the end of December. Above freezing all the way to the Hudson Bay in Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM 12Z Euro ensemble has a very pretty +PNA at the end. Canadian ens does, too, but not the GFS ens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro ensemble has a very pretty +PNA at the end. Canadian ens does, too, but not the GFS ens. Came here to say the same about the 12z suite. in hindsight, absolutely zero has changed from previous thoughts over the past week. The only change is that the well predicted and overly advertised post-Christmas warm up went from fantasy land to the mid range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:01 PM It is still such a frustrating near miss on the 20th/21st. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM 19 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. Where in the heck do you see that? I just checked for several places there and none are expecting anywhere near that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Don’t worry folks! We will get a warm Jan Feb and frozen ponds in March. We’re very good at cold springs for the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted Tuesday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:41 PM 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Don’t worry folks! We will get a warm Jan Feb and frozen ponds in March. We’re very good at cold springs for the past several years. More like cold January, warm February, cold March. Like every year lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Tuesday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:57 PM On 12/16/2024 at 7:48 AM, Met1985 said: We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out. Five years!! Five years with crappy winters!! Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!! Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024 Met1985 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out. Yesterday at 07:48 AM 2,538 replies 1 2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload. 2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight. 2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all. December 19, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own. January 14, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good 2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread Met1985 replied to Met1985's topic in Southeastern States Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here. January 7, 2021 3,504 replies 2 2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread. Met1985 replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States February 27, 2020 1Yeah the 32km. Im not worried though just like last night. The signal was there and it delivered. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM 5 hours ago, wncsnow said: This is just.. sad. No cold to be found at the end of December. Above freezing all the way to the Hudson Bay in Canada. Yeah, sickening really. Other side of Pole below Average. CPF will bring that over if it sets back up but, by the time it mixes with all the warmth it'll probably just bring Temps down to Average wherever it does go. Hopefully, it does set back up and hang before upstream blocking set's up. Some indication the Strat may initiate that so, we definitely don't want blocking set up before cold gets reestablished as it would just lock in the mild air in Canada and the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 01:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:45 AM 1 hour ago, jburns said: Five years!! Five years with crappy winters!! Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!! Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024 Met1985 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out. Yesterday at 07:48 AM 2,538 replies 1 2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload. 2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight. 2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all. December 19, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own. January 14, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good 2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread Met1985 replied to Met1985's topic in Southeastern States Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here. January 7, 2021 3,504 replies 2 2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread. Met1985 replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States February 27, 2020 1Yeah the 32km. Im not worried though just like last night. The signal was there and it delivered. Lol maybe IV put a hex on everyone east of here! Ok ok. I'm going to start worrying for yall now. Some reverse psychology. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 02:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:01 AM 18Z GEFS end: like 12Z GEFS still not pretty (actually kind of ugly) unlike beautiful EPS/CDN ens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z GEFS end: like 12Z GEFS still not pretty (actually kind of ugly) unlike beautiful EPS/CDN ens Hopefully, it's wrong but, I don't know. The GFS/GEFS schooled the other's with the pattern before and through Christmas. They caved to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted yesterday at 02:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:12 AM BAM Wx says not so fast. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 06:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:01 AM End of runs (0Z): time for rate the models GFS: kind of ugly (3) Euro: decent (6) Cdn ens: pretty (7) GFS ens: still ugly (2) Euro ens: still very pretty but tiny bit less pretty than 12Z (8) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM 13 hours ago, jburns said: Five years!! Five years with crappy winters!! Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!! Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024 Met1985 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out. Yesterday at 07:48 AM 2,538 replies 1 2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload. 2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Met1985 replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight. 2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all. December 19, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own. January 14, 2022 2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good 2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread Met1985 replied to Met1985's topic in Southeastern States Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here. January 7, 2021 3,504 replies 2 2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread. Met1985 replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States February 27, 2020 1Yeah the 32km. Im not worried though just like last night. The signal was there and it delivered. To be fair to Met, the mountains have had a few decent snow events during those years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Graupel watch! (Because it's all we've got) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago End of Euro: not as pretty as prior 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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