GaWx Posted Monday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:40 PM 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I by no means am wishing for an ice storm but that has been an interesting drought to follow as well. I’d be curious as to when everyone’s neck of the woods last saw a significant (greater than 1/4 inch) ice event. I couldn’t tell you for me, no clue. The southside of Atlanta/airport E to Augusta and into SC had a bad ZR in Feb of 2014. That one took down the Eisenhower Tree at Augusta National. In my area, where ZR events are typically few and very far between, we had a rare 1/4” of ice accretion from 1/2” of ZR in the great SE coastal winter storm of early Jan of 2018. It stopped just shy of causing widespread, major problems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 PM 15 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: I Assume this would be most for this area. . Unless Im missing one. I had just had a first real job a few months before this after college. Jan 16, 2022 was our last 0.25” of ice. So not that long ago but it’s been exceedingly rare. We used to specialize in ice, maybe not full blown ice storms, but most systems following a cold snap would at least start as an hour or two of ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:12 PM 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: It’s pretty stinkin apparent to me as to why we’re in the situation we’ll be in. Looking at the GEFS 850s and it’s clear our Pacific jet is absolutely raging just after Christmas and at least through new years. You have the most modest PNA going on but it really doesn’t matter because the jet fuel is aimed right at the top of the ridge, flooding all of Canada and the lower 48 with mild air. I guess if there’s any optimism, that’s what it is, mild air, but I know we’re starting to approach prime climo and this isn’t what anyone wants to see. idk what’s going on with the Pacific, I’d say it’s likely tied to a higher amplitude phase 6 MJO but we’ve seen the Pacific jet torch defy all odds for years. I’m hanging on to optimism, not necessarily because I’m ok with the lack of snow, I want it as bad as anyone, but eventually we’re going to crack the drought and I’m just at the point where I’ve been let down enough to not let it phase me anymore. Yeah, Pac Jet ruining things again. I remember in the mild Winter of 01-02 of being in what should have been a perfect pattern for a cold and snowy Eastern US but, Canada was flooded with mild air so, it was too warm. The best we can hope for is CPF sets up and last awhile to cool everywhere back down or a cold core storm system that can still produce Snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:01 PM The 12Z GFS is significantly less cold than prior runs in the SE for the period centered on Dec 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:19 PM 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z GFS is significantly less cold than prior runs in the SE for the period centered on Dec 22. December is cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM 20 minutes ago, eyewall said: December is cooked. We now have Columbias climate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:10 PM At RDU: Yesterday’s 12Z Euro had a very cold mid 30s at 1PM on 12/25. Today’s 0Z had mid 40s. Today’s 12Z Euro has low 50s (close to normal). This strong warmup is not the least bit surprising because yesterday’s Euro was a huge cold outlier/head-fake that I wasn’t buying (as per my post). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:17 PM Hopefully the folks over at BamWx are as right as they were last year. I think the worry about a warm canada is overblown, IF and only if the pattern is truly PV driven in January. If not, then yeah it'll take a while to slowly build cold air back in. But a north south stretched lobe of the PV parking itself in the Hudson Bay, funneling air straight off the pole, is not a slow building scenario. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1868717494594089454?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:29 PM 14 minutes ago, GaWx said: At RDU: Yesterday’s 12Z Euro had a very cold mid 30s at 1PM on 12/25. Today’s 0Z had mid 40s. Today’s 12Z Euro has low 50s (close to normal). This strong warmup is not the least bit surprising because yesterday’s Euro was a huge cold outlier/head-fake that I wasn’t buying (as per my post). Yeah, other Suite's were right. We were all hoping the Euro would score a Coup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:35 PM 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Hopefully the folks over at BamWx are as right as they were last year. I think the worry about a warm canada is overblown, IF and only if the pattern is truly PV driven in January. If not, then yeah it'll take a while to slowly build cold air back in. But a north south stretched lobe of the PV parking itself in the Hudson Bay, funneling air straight off the pole, is not a slow building scenario. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1868717494594089454?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ What did they predict last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:58 PM 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: What did they predict last year? I generally just remember them constantly shutting down any hopes that last winters cutter parade would turnaround. I'd say the same For Eric Webb last year. No hype, just straight brutal honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:58 PM 1 hour ago, eyewall said: December is cooked. Is December not going to finish negative departure for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:15 PM The MJO is headed toward phase 6 for the days preceding Christmas. Phase 6 is the warmest on average for NDJ: I’m looking forward to what the non-GFS model consensus is suggesting for early Jan, weak to moderate left side of MJO diagram. If this verifies, it would be conducive to a return to cold in the SE US then. Now the latest bc GEFS has other ideas with it stalling in moderate amp 7 and turning back into 6. Hoping it is off its rocker! That would not be good. Unfortunately the GEFS sometimes comes through on its own. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:38 PM 31 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Is December not going to finish negative departure for RDU? Probably going to be close. I’d think slightly below is likely still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: The MJO is headed toward phase 6 for the days preceding Christmas. Phase 6 is the warmest on average for NDJ: I’m looking forward to what the non-GFS model consensus is suggesting for early Jan, weak to moderate left side of MJO diagram. If this verifies, it would be conducive to a return to cold in the SE US then. Now the latest bc GEFS has other ideas with it stalling in moderate amp 7 and turning back into 6. Hoping it is off its rocker! That would not be good. Unfortunately the GEFS sometimes comes through on its own. Yeah, hopefully we go low amp 8 and COD . Research shows, as I think you even showed results and findings awhile back that showed that a the best for the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:28 PM 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Is December not going to finish negative departure for RDU? I mean for snow. It may still end up below normal for the month. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Monday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:47 PM Is it hurricane season yet? This is depressing. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:17 PM 29 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Is it hurricane season yet? This is depressing. When you are closing in on 1100 days since the last measurable snow things are not going to be pretty lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Monday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:20 PM Keep the faith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:35 PM 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Keep the faith That’s been lost in year a long, long time ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:38 PM 17 minutes ago, eyewall said: When you are closing in on 1100 days since the last measurable snow things are not going to be pretty lol. It’s absolutely pathetic. 18z GFS barely gets it below freezing for a night into SC. Just a day ago there were low 20’s pre Christmas into the Florida panhandle on some models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Anyone still believe that climate change is not real? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:34 PM 39 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone still believe that climate change is not real? Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Monday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:50 PM 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving Yes, I am here and I am reporting our certain doom! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:01 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:01 AM 15 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Yes, I am here and I am reporting our certain doom! You don’t have money to spend on sleds anyway. All of it better be headed to Belichick’s NIL fund. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Tuesday at 12:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:03 AM 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Yes, I am here and I am reporting our certain doom! Agree. I’m beginning to think the Tarheels have a better chance at hiring Bill Belichick than we do of seeing a class Miller A snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:17 AM 3 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone still believe that climate change is not real? Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Tuesday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 AM 20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. Yeah it seems Siberia and China has experienced some extreme winters in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Tuesday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 AM 26 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet. Too much hot air on this side blowing it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Tuesday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:17 AM My sentiments exactly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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