Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[SnowDawg]

Much better ridge trough alignment on the euro for extremely efficient cold air transport. Instead of being fed moderated Midwest air off the broad western ridge on the GFS, we have cold air dumping essentially due south out of eastern Canada.
Quite the cold air source to pull from if we can just tap it. Hopefully the Euro is on to something with shifting that ridge back west a bit.

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well even on pivotal it's much colder. Not just the maps on wxbell. The EUROAI has been showing this shot from time to time and even the gfs has also. 

I just looked at TT 2m and they also agree with WxBell. So, the temps aren’t a WxBell issue here.

 So, now the question is whether or not to expect this to closely verify being that Christmas is still ~10 days out (fantasyland for an operational) and that the Euro is so much colder than the 6Z Euro AI, the 12Z GFS, and the 12Z CMC. So, this is a huge outlier. When looking at possibilities, I look at this as the extreme of numerous possibilities.
 
 So, at this point I say the odds are very low and to not be surprised if Christmas is way warmer than this. Buying into runs like this often leads to unnecessary disappointment. There’s often way too much significance placed on operationals past day 7. Ensemble means are way more credible day 7+.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro ens mean is very cold for 12/22-5, especially 12/22-4. It’s about the coldest run yet in our area for 12/22-5. Of course, it isn’t as cold as the operational.

Edit: ~25% of the 50 runs look interesting for wintry precip potential even outside of the mountains

[Daniel Boone]

Hopefully, the GFS in particular, is out to lunch as the entire run is a wreck. It's probably estimating more forcing from the western systems and possibly the MJO. 

[BooneWX]

17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, the GFS in particular, is out to lunch as the entire run is a wreck. It's probably estimating more forcing from the western systems and possibly the MJO. 

It’s also been warm at 5+ days the entire month of December 

[GaWx]

 Now for some much later periods of speculation for the SE temps **fwiw**:

-The new Euro Weeklies mean (100 member ensemble) has no strong signal for another long period of torch after the upcoming week.

-After next week’s chilly week, they have near normal/no strong signal 12/30-1/5.

-They are showing quite a strong cold signal for being out at week 4 (for 1/6-12). This may be the next period to watch for potential excitement. I’m pretty interested myself based on the persistence of these weeklies runs.

-They have a weak cool signal for 1/13-19.

-They have no signal either way for 1/20-6.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I just looked at TT 2m and they also agree with WxBell. So, the temps aren’t a WxBell issue here.

 So, now the question is whether or not to expect this to closely verify being that Christmas is still ~10 days out (fantasyland for an operational) and that the Euro is so much colder than the 6Z Euro AI, the 12Z GFS, and the 12Z CMC. So, this is a huge outlier. When looking at possibilities, I look at this as the extreme of numerous possibilities.
 
 So, at this point I say the odds are very low and to not be surprised if Christmas is way warmer than this. Buying into runs like this often leads to unnecessary disappointment. There’s often way too much significance placed on operationals past day 7. Ensemble means are way more credible day 7+.

Oh yeah obviously the usual cavates apply but it seems like we may see a lot of volatility in the models the rest of the month which we could very well see just a huge spike in temps buy I just don't seem that in the models.  

[Daniel Boone]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Now for some much later periods of speculation for the SE temps **fwiw**:

-The new Euro Weeklies mean (100 member ensemble) has no strong signal for another long period of torch after the upcoming week.

-After next week’s chilly week, they have near normal/no strong signal 12/30-1/5.

-They are showing quite a strong cold signal for being out at week 4 (for 1/6-12). This may be the next period to watch for potential excitement. I’m pretty interested myself based on the persistence of these weeklies runs.

-They have a weak cool signal for 1/13-19.

-They have no signal either way for 1/20-6.

Yeah, actually makes sense irt to the MJO projection for that timeframe. If we can get the tall PNA Ridge in conjunction with Ph 8 into COD then we could be in business. 

[SnowDawg]

GFS remains insistent on just dumping the cold out into the Atlantic. It and the GEFS want to center the ridge over the plains while the Euro and EPS are more over the Rockies.

[GaWx]

18Z Euro ensemble means at 144 are similar to the cold 12Z EE at 150 and continue to suggest much colder than GEFS (18Z) and similar cold to the GEPS (12Z). So, the prospects for strong cold suggested by the 12Z Euro have survived at least through the 18Z as far as it goes out. 0Z will be much more telling.

[GaWx]

 Predictably, the 0Z Euro isn’t as cold as the very cold 12Z run on 12/23-7 and doesn’t have that Christmas snow. The 0Z GFS cooled since 12Z but is still not as cold as the 0Z Euro.

[olafminesaw]

I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking  in canada

[wncsnow]

38 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking  in canada

All the cold air is gone from our side of the globe. 

[Met1985]

We will continue to see swings and adjustments.  Not worried at all at this point.  We've just got to watch things shake out.

[olafminesaw]

45 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We will continue to see swings and adjustments.  Not worried at all at this point.  We've just got to watch things shake out.

Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m 100% confident the torch will verify after our 2-3 day cold snap. We’re in a climate now where warmth wins out 8-9 times out of 10 and models struggle to figure out the type of warmth that exists now. This is a frustration post but I am at a loss. People are like it’s only midway through December but it’ll be January by the time this torch passes. Just a couple days ago we’d trended away from the post Christmas torch to repeated cold shots now it’s legitimately just a few post front cold days then the oven 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected. 

Agreed, the first half of December was better than expected. Guess that got my hopes up when models appeared to be building on something

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking  in canada

When the air in our source region is running +20 we are effectively screwed

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected. 

Yeah I mean I'm basically already at my season total from last year already.  Several places saw there first show in 3 years and we've already had some cold temps for the season.  I mean we can doom and gloom all day and feel like shit about the weather or let things play out since it's only December 16th...But hey just my opinion. 

[Snow dog]

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I mean I'm basically already at my season total from last year already.  Several places saw there first show in 3 years and we've already had some cold temps for the season.  I mean we can doom and gloom all day and feel like shit about the weather or let things play out since it's only December 16th...But hey just my opinion. 

Agree.  People 'writing off' winter in mid-December are crazy!  The weather is going to do what its going to do, and if you are hoping for wall-to-wall cold weather, you picked the wrong region to live in.  I'd love to see snow, but if its not going to, give me mid-60s all day long!

[WNC_Fort]

It's funny how everyone always falls back into the same camps. Folks in the highest elevations get at least some snow every year, so they're a bit more optimistic. Foothill folks are now in a longer snow drought than the piedmont and are antsy/pessimistic...realists? Everyone south of NC just praying for a snowflake but resigned to the fact that we just don't win anymore. 

Last year, we had @wncsnowalways getting downvoted for providing a realist view of how things are shaking out. Rinse and repeat. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

It's funny how everyone always falls back into the same camps. Folks in the highest elevations get at least some snow every year, so they're a bit more optimistic. Foothill folks are now in a longer snow drought than the piedmont and are antsy/pessimistic...realists? Everyone south of NC just praying for a snowflake but resigned to the fact that we just don't win anymore. 

Last year, we had @wncsnowalways getting downvoted for providing a realist view of how things are shaking out. Rinse and repeat. 

Yall just east of the mountains really need a synoptic storm. Yall get shadowed horribly coming from the west or worst the NW flow. That drop off is brutal for yall. I know it is extremely frustrating.  Hopefully yall can score this season. 

[strongwxnc]

Meanwhile, I have enjoyed the gloom and doom weather the past few days.  Us just east of the mountains always have the thread the needle.  But not to get to high or low with any prognostication is the plan. I mean something has to happen at some point....Right.... 

 

[BooneWX]

It’s pretty stinkin apparent to me as to why we’re in the situation we’ll be in. Looking at the GEFS 850s and it’s clear our Pacific jet is absolutely raging just after Christmas and at least through new years. You have the most modest PNA going on but it really doesn’t matter because the jet fuel is aimed right at the top of the ridge, flooding all of Canada and the lower 48 with mild air. I guess if there’s any optimism, that’s what it is, mild air, but I know we’re starting to approach prime climo and this isn’t what anyone wants to see. 
 

idk what’s going on with the Pacific, I’d say it’s likely tied to a higher amplitude phase 6 MJO but we’ve seen the Pacific jet torch defy all odds for years. I’m hanging on to optimism, not necessarily because I’m ok with the lack of snow, I want it as bad as anyone, but eventually we’re going to crack the drought and I’m just at the point where I’ve been let down enough to not let it phase me anymore. 

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’s pretty stinkin apparent to me as to why we’re in the situation we’ll be in. Looking at the GEFS 850s and it’s clear our Pacific jet is absolutely raging just after Christmas and at least through new years. You have the most modest PNA going on but it really doesn’t matter because the jet fuel is aimed right at the top of the ridge, flooding all of Canada and the lower 48 with mild air. I guess if there’s any optimism, that’s what it is, mild air, but I know we’re starting to approach prime climo and this isn’t what anyone wants to see. 
 

idk what’s going on with the Pacific, I’d say it’s likely tied to a higher amplitude phase 6 MJO but we’ve seen the Pacific jet torch defy all odds for years. I’m hanging on to optimism, not necessarily because I’m ok with the lack of snow, I want it as bad as anyone, but eventually we’re going to crack the drought and I’m just at the point where I’ve been let down enough to not let it phase me anymore. 

The Pacific is the main reason we have been screwed the past 3 winters in a row. 

[wncsnow]

I just want my kids to be able to see snow at the house and go out and play in it. Build a snowman, etc. My oldest is almost 5 and can't even remember snow at the house. That's sad. We live in WNC not Myrtle Beach. Somethings wrong with the climate. 

[BooneWX]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I just want my kids to be able to see snow at the house and go out and play in it. Build a snowman, etc. My oldest is almost 5 and can't even remember snow at the house. That's sad. We live in WNC not Myrtle Beach. Somethings wrong with the climate. 

Don’t disagree a bit. The oceans are boiling hot. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD

[BooneWX]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD

I by no means am wishing for an ice storm but that has been an interesting drought to follow as well. I’d be curious as to when everyone’s neck of the woods last saw a significant (greater than 1/4 inch) ice event. I couldn’t tell you for me, no clue.

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I by no means am wishing for an ice storm but that has been an interesting drought to follow as well. I’d be curious as to when everyone’s neck of the woods last saw a significant (greater than 1/4 inch) ice event. I couldn’t tell you for me, no clue.

I Assume this would be most for this area. . Unless Im missing one. I had just had a first real job a few months before this after college.