BooneWX Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM The Torch Town thread is also now live for those who need it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Saturday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:30 PM Long range GFS has falsely turned warm in the long range at least twice this month alone. As for the snow chances, the ensembles never budged, shoulda been a dead giveaway there was nothing much there. For now the ridge axis out west just seems too broad, which in turn is pushing our trough too far east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Long range GFS has falsely turned warm in the long range at least twice this month alone. As for the snow chances, the ensembles never budged, shoulda been a dead giveaway there was nothing much there. For now the ridge axis out west just seems too broad, which in turn is pushing our trough too far east. I’m not worried about long range but that pre Christmas chance has evaporated with most guidance consolidating LP in the MA. Looking more and more like a cold front then warmup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Saturday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:18 PM 36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m not worried about long range but that pre Christmas chance has evaporated with most guidance consolidating LP in the MA. Looking more and more like a cold front then warmup. That's the thing, according to the ensmbles there was never much of a chance to begin with. OP would show a big run and the GEFS would never budge. Gotta remember the true randomness of the op runs and compare them to their ensemble suites before getting worked up. Easier said than done I know, I'm just as guilty as anyone lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing I can't even remember the last time we were under a winter storm watch or warning. Probably January 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM 24 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I can't even remember the last time we were under a winter storm watch or warning. Probably January 2022. That was such an underrated event in our neck of the woods. Saw a little bit of everything and the snow over-performed. Looking back at pictures - roughly 6 ish inches of snow, a nice crust of sleet and a very minimal glaze to top it all off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM I would also say for the pre-christmas days despite the ensembles not being enthused yet, and the op runs backing off a touch, it's certainly still close enough to keep an eye on. Despite this drought making it feel otherwise, I'd say most of our winter events in the past, other than the true big dogs, trend towards us inside the last 120-144 hours or so and we reel them in right up to the end. Small adjustments in the ridge/trough alignment and the different pieces of energy could still make a big difference. I know I'd be happy just to see some token flurries around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM The 12z GFS op run still has a signal there with a disturbance dropping through the coastal plain of NC but comes up short on the full phase. We're not dead yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM I don’t know about yall but I just want it to be seasonal on Christmas Day. I don’t think that’s asking too much. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM 1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said: I don’t know about yall but I just want it to be seasonal on Christmas Day. I don’t think that’s asking too much. Lol Euro shows this on Christmas Day 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM 47 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro shows this on Christmas Day Oh good, another Florida Christmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted Saturday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:10 PM 'It's beginning to look alot like early Spring...' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:02 PM If you like cold weather, the last 24 hours was not the trend you want 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If you like cold weather, the last 24 hours was not the trend you want Yep. Probably picking up on Ph 6 MJO. Data was showing it hanging near circle of Death but then showed it coming into ph 6 at good amplitude. That's when the Model's flipped mild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM Always bet the streak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM The EPS and GEFS probabilities for snow for central NC actually increased over the last run....Still low probability, but increased. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 04:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:33 AM 7 hours ago, wncsnow said: Euro shows this on Christmas Day Kind of interesting to see 61 degrees graded with a light red temperature hue. Seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM 7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: If you like cold weather, the last 24 hours was not the trend you want Indeed, the 0Z GFS is significantly warmer for 12/19-20 than almost all other runs the last few days. But cheer up, today’s Euro Weeklies were the coldest run yet for Jan 6-12. Edit: However, the consensus has also cooled some for 12/22-5/6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 10:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:54 AM It hasn’t snowed here in Greenville for almost three years now. Crazy. Is this a new normal? Guess it’s time to pull out the lawnmower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM We can enjoy warm southerly flow and thunderstorms on Christmas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Chasing week 5+ weeklies already… Hello darkness my old friend… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Chasing week 5+ weeklies already… Hello darkness my old friend… Already chasing that white whale in mid December. The Weeklies were so bad last winter I'm not sure I care what they say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM Rollercoaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:17 PM There is no doubt the 12z GFS says we are indeed cooked for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: There is no doubt the 12z GFS says we are indeed cooked for December. If just the 12z gfs is to be believed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Meanwhile the 12z euro lays down a Christmas Day snow from Alabama to middle Virginia. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM 12Z EURO looks much cooler. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM We will go with the Euro LOL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:25 PM I’m trying to figure out why the 12Z Euro is so much colder in the SE vs the 12Z GFS 12/22-7 on WxBell. Does that look right? Of course this is days 7-12 (much of it in fantasyland for an operational) and thus don’t buy how ridiculously cold it is at 2 meters, especially on these WxBell maps. The 850s are similar to TT’s, regardless. The 2 meters aren’t out there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM 49 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m trying to figure out why the 12Z Euro is so much colder in the SE vs the 12Z GFS 12/22-7 on WxBell. Does that look right? Of course this is days 7-12 (much of it in fantasyland for an operational) and thus don’t buy how ridiculously cold it is at 2 meters, especially on these WxBell maps. The 850s are similar to TT’s, regardless. The 2 meters aren’t out there yet. Well even on pivotal it's much colder. Not just the maps on wxbell. The EUROAI has been showing this shot from time to time and even the gfs has also. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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