kvegas-wx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Just a lil run to run variability So somewhere between skiing and golf. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 44 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: So somewhere between skiing and golf. Got it. Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Unfortunately the most likely scenario is cutters and lots of rain followed by a few days of cold then rinse and repeat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Yeah, that's exactly what I'm preparing myself for. I refuse to get excited about any potential wintry weather anymore until I see it falling from the sky above me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Yeah, that's exactly what I'm preparing myself for. I refuse to get excited about any potential wintry weather anymore until I see it falling from the sky above me. Years ago I had a 24 hour rule of what models show vs excitement level. That has moved to zero hour and now time casting . . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 10 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass. Lol. I will point out GEFS ensembles do not have the storm at all. Snow mean hasn’t ticked up at all even with a few Op runs showing it. Still seems like a pipe dream at this point but there’s a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Much better, sharper 500mb look on the 12/21-22 system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on) Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston. The great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was like that.. that's what negative tilted Troughs can feature. Enough blocking upstream can cause it to tilt so much that it will be cold on the south side of a System and snowing while mild and rainy north side. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston. That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 hour ago, GaWx said: That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks. From a cold air transport perspective that run was a thing of beauty. That would be a crazy north wind with temps crashing. Reminds me of that system a couple years ago around Christmas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 The PNA is very positive,AO is negative let's see what happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Euro isn't particularly close to any winter weather through 15 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 From FFC: WILL BRING FLOW AT 850MB FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A MASS RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW. HOWEVER, SIMULTANEOUS TO THIS, STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHICH THE WEATHER WEENIES WILL KNOW BRINGS COLD AIR DAMMING (THE WEDGE) TO OUR CWA. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 This is interesting. GFS now wants to close off a piece of energy in the southwest. Big, longitudinally co-located surface high incoming from Canada. Squashes it into the Gulf, but, hey still a ways out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 And… it’s gone. Onto January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: And… it’s gone. Onto January Yep the long range looks like dog$#!+. December is pretty much toast. The odds of another snowless winter are increasing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 36 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yep the long range looks like dog$#!+. December is pretty much toast. The odds of another snowless winter are increasing. This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing We were close with that clipper but the irony is I had to drive south to catch that lol. Might as well go for the RDU futility record at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 I think Jan is going to have to be our shot. That’s when the -EPO should be working in our favor the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 21 hours ago, GaWx said: That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks. And what has that gotten us? The same thing we get when the phases are flipped. We got punk'd by the models yet again. December was our shot and we flopped. Christmas week is now warming up on the models then we absolutely BAKE after Christmas. So then, in mid December we're now chasing phantom cold for mid January after this post-Christmas "thaw" (more like bbq) BUT by then, the Nina will have strengthened and taken hold so it's ultimately too late at that point. It's warm and dry from here on out with these little 1-2 day cold spurts. But once the SE ridge takes hold in the next week or two we won't even have to worry about those little 2-day cold shots anymore. It's ok though, I'm sure winter 25-26 will be rockin'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 December isn't over yet... Can't remember the last time we tracked a storm from 10 days out. I think something will pop up and be a "within 5 day score" if we end up getting anything. Don't need wall to wall cold... just the cold and moisture to link up at the right time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 We’re getting ready to traverse through a reasonably high amplitude phase 6. All is going as planned. Phase 7 isn’t all sunshine and roses either for the upper and mid south. Patience as we propagate into high amplitude 8 and 1. It’s still autumn on the calendar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now