wncsnow Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Chapel Bill is coming 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 I love the optimism...really I do. But if you're willing to jump head first into models right now given the last 3 years...well, you are more brave than me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 DT with a new video. Really hope the EURO is on to something Christmas week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Overnight modeling remains consistent for Christmas week. Cold signal remains strong as does a storm signal. Talk of cross polar flow with a Rocky Mountain ridge is why folks are optimistic. That’s the setup we want. Nothing guarantees winter weather here but the players are on the field and it’s not a merry torchmas year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Overnight modeling remains consistent for Christmas week. Cold signal remains strong as does a storm signal. Talk of cross polar flow with a Rocky Mountain ridge is why folks are optimistic. That’s the setup we want. Nothing guarantees winter weather here but the players are on the field and it’s not a merry torchmas year We will take it! Closer than we have been for 3 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 48 minutes ago, eyewall said: We will take it! Closer than we have been for 3 years lol. Yup As stated models really hinting on 12/20 ish for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acc fan Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 14 hours ago, wncsnow said: Chapel Bill is coming Was a great coach with Brady. Terrible without him with a record of 85-102. Good luck with him. Hope don’t become Cheater Hill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 I haven’t commented too often on individual operational runs, but has anyone seen the 12Z GFS? Not only is it very cold 12/19-23++, check this out: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 288 hours is closer than you think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 288 hours is closer than you think Also, the 12Z GFS snow starts in W TN in just 168 hours. That’s why I posted about it. If it were just another storm relegated to the 11-15 day period, I doubt I would have posted about it as those are a dime a dozen/fantasyland storms. But this run actually starts the snow a bit pre fantasyland. And the cold signal for 12/19+ has been repeatedly showing up and intensifying in recent days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 That's what I'm here for. Christmas blizzard of '24 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 12z GFS would feed families… That’s the potential this upcoming pattern has 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Love the potential, need to start seeing some ensemble support. If we could just get that started in the Gulf instead of off the coast this whole board would be slammed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Love the 0 degree readings over 1-2 foot deep snowpack in eastern NC Christmas Eve morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 12Z GEFS coldest run yet for E US 12/20-3+ with stronger mean Arctic high. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 I knew this place would be rockin' after that run. Now sit and wait for the despair when it turns into a 65° rain in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm I was actually just in the MidAtlantic forum. There is some discussion of potential similarity to the Boxing Day 2010 storm. Funny how we have such good memories of that here but for them it was a nightmare. So needless to say they are not overly enthused. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I was actually just in the MidAtlantic forum. There is some discussion of potential similarity to the Boxing Day 2010 storm. Funny how we have such good memories of that here but for them it was a nightmare. So needless to say they are not overly enthused. Yeah, I lived in northern VA at the time and remember coming back from Christmas in Western PA, expecting to see several inches of snow, only to find a dusting. It was crazy because they really ramped up the forecast totals just a day or two before the storm. I think model accuracy has really improved since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 12Z GEFS, which suggests that the 12Z GFS major snowstorm is a huge outlier (no surprise of course), also suggests that the intense cold is very real. You’ve got to have the cold to have much of a chance. It suggests a cold Christmas! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 A reminder that big storms in this region tend to honk loudly and honk early on the models. Idk if I’d consider the last few days honking, but the signal has been consistently there time and time again. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 hours ago, GaWx said: I haven’t commented too often on individual operational runs, but has anyone seen the 12Z GFS? Not only is it very cold 12/19-23++, check this out: I'm not really a cold fan but appreciate the novelty of snow. But of course that's right in the middle of our trip to Atlanta. It needs to wait a day or two, or shift a little west... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 18 minutes ago, gtg947h said: I'm not really a cold fan but appreciate the novelty of snow. But of course that's right in the middle of our trip to Atlanta. It needs to wait a day or two... The good for you/bad for me news is that as we all know the chance of this verifying closely with it currently being a huge outlier, a very highly unusual solution, and most importantly still out over a week is quite small. But with that being said, wintry precip in our area is always a huge outlier vs history. We haven’t even had a T of any kind of wintry precip in nearly 7 years, the longest wintry precip drought since at least the 1880s. One of these days we’re going to finally get the next wintry event. It could be this winter or it could still be several winters away. Because they’re so rare, it’s going to be difficult to predict more than a few days out and may be a surprise to the models. The first thing we obviously need is a good supply of Canadian air. Then we of course need moisture. The best combo for us is a split flow of cold from N jet/+PNA and WSW moist flow overrunning it from the ST jet. With us being in La Nina, a well placed ST jet may be a challenge though we’ve had wintry precip a number of times in La Niña. So far, it appears we’re likely going to have the Aleutian Low/+PNA that’s often characteristic of El Niño. But I’d also like a moist ST/WSW 500 mb flow overrunning it giving us ample Gulf moisture/deep into Gulf Miller A. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 The 12Z Euro is actually (fwiw) not that far off from a SE winter storm with a Miller A that forms just S of the NW Gulf coast on 12/20 between Canadian highs and scoots ENE along the Gulf coast to offshore GA on 12/21-2. It actually has light snow that falls in parts of SE LA, S MS, E SC, and E NC during 12/21-2. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 50 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro is actually (fwiw) not that far off from a SE winter storm with a Miller A that forms just S of the NW Gulf coast on 12/20 between Canadian highs and scoots ENE along the Gulf coast to offshore GA on 12/21-2. It actually has light snow that falls in SE LA, S MS, E SC, and E NC during 12/21-2. Fact the Euro is that close is good. All options with the storm are on the table but cold seems to be available regardless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Fact the Euro is that close is good. All options with the storm are on the table but cold seems to be available regardless high shear low cape for the Coastal Plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Eric Webb: Why have long range model forecasts been trending consistently colder the last week or so in the Eastern US? Imho, it has a lot to do with the Pacific Jet stream. Namely, the shift/trend in model forecasts away from a poleward shift to more of a jet extension in later forecasts. Contrary to some of the popular #S2S takes I’ve seen out there, pacific jet extensions don’t actually favor warmth in the eastern us. In fact, a pacific jet extension on its own actually favors colder temps in the eastern US. Where it often goes sideways is when this jet extension is coupled with El Niño and a poleward shift in the jet stream. The real driver of the milder look seen previously in model forecasts was actually more related the poleward shift in the pacific jet, which the models have trended away from. See Winters et al (2019) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Just a lil run to run variability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Just a lil run to run variability Regardless, I’ll rejoice in not having to wear shorts this Christmas. It’s sad that a seasonable to cold Christmas feels like you’re scoring an absolute coup of a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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