BooneWX Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Just now, BooneWX said: Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast. Also the days leading up to Christmas look interesting to say the least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: December 81 was a part of a ENSO neutral winter as we transitioned back to Nino in fall of 82. It was a December of wild swings with a nice little winter storm on the 21st. Reminds me a lot of this December so far. Then in Janaury the arctic hounds were released. Brutal cold and back to back Gulf winter storms. Warmed up after mid Janaury and eseentially winter was over. Yeah, very cold January that Year. Several Arctic fronts as well as Miller A Snowfalls as you alluded to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, very cold January that Year. Several Arctic fronts as well as Miller A Snowfalls as you alluded to. Monday January 11 we had a low of 4 at GSP. By lunch time on Tuesday it was snowing. On Thursday had a second gulf system dumping more snow. Missed school nearly a month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Monday January 11 we had a low of 4 at GSP. By lunch time on Tuesday it was snowing. On Thursday had a second gulf system dumping more snow. Missed school nearly a month. I crave a Miller A like I crave a winning franchise in the city of Charlotte. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Today's Euro was umm.. interesting 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Having seen the MJO projections yesterday, I’m sort of surprised the ops aren’t showing more warmth in the mid-long range. I’d cash out on the 21st for the rest of winter with what the Euro is showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Having seen the MJO projections yesterday, I’m sort of surprised the ops aren’t showing more warmth in the mid-long range. I’d cash out on the 21st for the rest of winter with what the Euro is showing. MJO effects are overblown sometimes. Hopefully that's the case here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: MJO effects are overblown sometimes. Hopefully that's the case here I do think these past few weeks have been weird and I’m not sure any normal thinking for the LR is completely in play. Optimistic we’ll get some help in the eastern Pacific and maybe for once the background state isn’t so hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 40 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I do think these past few weeks have been weird and I’m not sure any normal thinking for the LR is completely in play. Optimistic we’ll get some help in the eastern Pacific and maybe for once the background state isn’t so hostile. Are we still thinking cold early Jan? I have been focused on mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Are we still thinking cold early Jan? I have been focused on mid range Per an analysis of cold ENSO cold first half of Dec analogs that I did today: -If current ensemble consensus of the lack of a cold dominated 2nd half of Dec. ends up verifying, analogs suggest strong likelihood of no return to cold domination in the first half of Jan although there’d still be a good chance for cold to dominate at some point later, favoring a portion of Feb. though last half of Jan would still have a shot. -However, if the current ensemble guidance is wrong and the 2nd half of Dec ends up cold dominated in the E US, then the analogs would suggest the chance for a cold dominated 1st half of Jan would rise substantially. -Fwiw since way out in fantasy range, weeks 5-6 of the Euro Weeklies (Jan 6-19) have neither a warm signal nor a cold signal. -The Euro op day 9-14 is quite cold but that is in low credibility fantasy range for an operational. It will very likely be warmer on upcoming runs since prior runs were significantly warmer and this run is a cold outlier amongst the models as a whole right now. However, it does show that a non-cold 2nd half of Dec is still too far out to be set in stone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Are we still thinking cold early Jan? I have been focused on mid range Yes, the post Christmas timeframe closer to New Years has the most promise since the PNA looks like it’ll build and the MJO likely heads into phase 7. I think anything before then is gravy we should appreciate . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per an analysis of cold ENSO cold first half of Dec analogs that I did today: -If current ensemble consensus of the lack of a cold dominated 2nd half of Dec. ends up verifying, analogs suggest strong likelihood of no return to cold domination in the first half of Jan although there’d still be a good chance for cold to dominate at some point later, favoring a portion of Feb. though last half of Jan would still have a shot. -However, if the current ensemble guidance is wrong and the 2nd half of Dec ends up cold dominated in the E US, then the analogs would suggest the chance for a cold dominated 1st half of Jan would rise substantially. -Fwiw since way out in fantasy range, weeks 5-6 of the Euro Weeklies (Jan 6-19) have neither a warm signal nor a cold signal. -The Euro op day 9-14 is quite cold but that is in low credibility fantasy range for an operational. It will very likely be warmer on upcoming runs since prior runs were significantly warmer and this run is a cold outlier amongst the models as a whole right now. However, it does show that a non-cold 2nd half of Dec is still too far out to be set in stone. Doesn't sound great and doesn't sound awful. Guess it's wait and see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 So, there’s a chance…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol. That would break me: a good snow at my house in Wilson while I am at my in-laws in Old Fort, NC. Luckily for me, the GFS is just playing that cruel game the models do when they give you hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol. Last 2 runs of Euro have hinted at a storm around the 21st. Would like to see another pre Christmas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 hours ago, wncsnow said: MJO effects are overblown sometimes. Hopefully that's the case here Lol something we finally agree on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: So, there’s a chance…. The 3K NAM, is showing the possibility of a few flakes as the precipitation moves out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Are we ever going to figure out how to have normal rain again? Over 3 inches today alone here after a bone dry stretch. I swear it’s either drought or flooding rains. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 GFS is legitimately all over the place. This time it chose cold and a coastal bomb. What will GFS roulette reveal next time? I’ve been saying for awhile but I’ll say it again: Christmas week is interesting. Hints of southern stream energy and a cold push with NAO trending neutral to negative. A storm is brewing in the 20-23rd timeframe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 57 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Are we ever going to figure out how to have normal rain again? Over 3 inches today alone here after a bone dry stretch. I swear it’s either drought or flooding rains. Yeah, it has been a strange Year ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 12z GFS looks great 20-25th. All the ingredients are there. Pattern is good, wish there was more southern jet energy but miller B or a clipper bombing out with enough blocking to work seems to me what our storm mode would be. Fast paced pattern is an understatement but blocking seems to set up with a ridge over the Rockies at least giving us a 3-5 day window to score 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 23 hours ago, GaWx said: Per an analysis of cold ENSO cold first half of Dec analogs that I did today: -If current ensemble consensus of the lack of a cold dominated 2nd half of Dec. ends up verifying, analogs suggest strong likelihood of no return to cold domination in the first half of Jan although there’d still be a good chance for cold to dominate at some point later, favoring a portion of Feb. though last half of Jan would still have a shot. -However, if the current ensemble guidance is wrong and the 2nd half of Dec ends up cold dominated in the E US, then the analogs would suggest the chance for a cold dominated 1st half of Jan would rise substantially. -Fwiw since way out in fantasy range, weeks 5-6 of the Euro Weeklies (Jan 6-19) have neither a warm signal nor a cold signal. -The Euro op day 9-14 is quite cold but that is in low credibility fantasy range for an operational. It will very likely be warmer on upcoming runs since prior runs were significantly warmer and this run is a cold outlier amongst the models as a whole right now. However, it does show that a non-cold 2nd half of Dec is still too far out to be set in stone. Air model of the Euro is showing cold dominating through the second half of December as well as there has been hints of it on some of the GFS op models and Euro ensembles. Especially the perioa bid of 20-23 december at least. With that type of pattern setting up I can see it establishing itself as a long stable pattern persisting into a good part of January. Then I think we will get a break, the polar vortex will have taken a significant blow to itself allowing a big displacement of the vortex in early February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 12z GFS looks great 20-25th. All the ingredients are there. Pattern is good, wish there was more southern jet energy but miller B or a clipper bombing out with enough blocking to work seems to me what our storm mode would be. Fast paced pattern is an understatement but blocking seems to set up with a ridge over the Rockies at least giving us a 3-5 day window to score And the signal has been there for not only days but borderline a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: And the signal has been there for not only days but borderline a week now. Euro too. Canadian to a similar extent. Nice to see some level of consistency 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Predicting the polar vortex and where the lobes of energy head is always a crapshoot but man does it look stretched and warped on LR guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 18z GFS looking like the earlier Euro AI run with a huge PNA ridge spiking up to the pole. That AI run ended with a what looked like a sustained long wave pattern with a split jet and PV over SE Canada heading to the new year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 I’m hoping for 2 Christmas miracles on the 21st. A pre Christmas snow and we beat Texas. At this point, unsure which is more improbable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 15 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I’m hoping for 2 Christmas miracles on the 21st. A pre Christmas snow and we beat Texas. At this point, unsure which is more improbable. Go Tigers! After winning on a 56 yard FG the way our special teams have performed, a double digit snowfall no longer seems impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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