NorthHillsWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Euro is kinda close to something interesting Day 7/8. If we can get that cold air over the mountains... Christmas week looks interesting on the Euro as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Christmas week looks interesting on the Euro as well Share with the rest of the class. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The front Tommorow should be kinda fun. High temp around mid morning in the triad, that doesn't happen very often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1864668310488666127?s=46 LAWWWD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 19 minutes ago, BooneWX said: https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1864668310488666127?s=46 LAWWWD I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said “The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)” as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The Euro and Icon for the 14th are interesting to say the least. Not likely a winter weather producer here but interesting to see them both trend away from a torch setting cutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, BooneWX said: The Euro and Icon for the 14th are interesting to say the least. Not likely a winter weather producer here but interesting to see them both trend away from a torch setting cutter. The model consensus, especially Euro, seems to be getting colder again for ~Dec 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 This is a very volatile, fast paced upper air flow. Blocks build up as fast as they break away. No sustained cold or warm and the long range forecasts are tough to nail down. Lots of conflicting signals out there. I like it. I think we'll get another shot at a snow threat and serious cold before Christmas. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 I’ll say this. Finally got the grass to stop growing. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 1 hour ago, Wow said: This is a very volatile, fast paced upper air flow. Blocks build up as fast as they break away. No sustained cold or warm and the long range forecasts are tough to nail down. Lots of conflicting signals out there. I like it. I think we'll get another shot at a snow threat and serious cold before Christmas. That’s the bright spot for sure. It doesn’t seem like we’re headed for a torch. At most, transient cold and warm and the stretches that are warm will have pacific origins. It sure as hell beats the past few Decembers. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 It's not quite there but the Euro tries to develop a secondary wave behind the front on Wednesday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Unlike yesterday’s BAMwx tweeted hype showing that extreme record-breaking 6Z CFS way out in mid-Jan, this (along with his Wednesday video) is well presented by Michael Clark with minimal or no outright “hype” showing his ideas of a mainly warming rest of Dec followed by realistic potential for a cold Jan (many models are shown rather than just the CFS and the CFS shown is not a cherry picked extreme WeatherBell map): 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 DT updated his seasonal outlook in his weekly video yesterday and honed in on the same +TNH pattern as above. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but it's nice to see some experts saying the potential is out there to at least have a pattern that puts us in the game in the heart of winter. Certainly more than we've been able to say the past few winters. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 18 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I may be wrong but I recall our best setups typically happen when the west coast ridge sets up over the Rockies too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 7 hours ago, wncsnow said: AN is probably still the higher likelihood solution because the pacific is raging in the medium range but this isn’t your average SER death dome warmth - it’s mild pacific air warm, which will just be a bunch of days in the upper 50s with the occasional 60 sprinkled in. If the pattern isnt super conducive for snow, which it likely wont be with a +EPO, I’m fine with this. It’ll feel seasonal still, especially at night + some time for the youngin’ to get outside and play on her new swing from Santa. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Ensemble trends have been incredible today. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 So the 12z ECMWF attempted a triple phaser today. The leading s/w stole most of the thunder on the sfc reflection (still blasts the NE of course) but the upper air pattern is gold Look at that PNA ridge! 850mb temps.. almost brings -20C down to FL. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I lost the link to the tweet but we’ve had a remarkable amount of snowpack expansion to our north. There’s now a solid pack to transport air from Siberia straight into the CONUS. Euro showing upper Midwest banana highs to boot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 5 minutes ago, Wow said: So the 12z ECMWF attempted a triple phaser today. The leading s/w stole most of the thunder on the sfc reflection but the upper air pattern is gold Look at that PNA ridge! 850mb temps.. almost brings -20C down to FL. There was so much to like not only from that run, but the GFS as well. Ensembles trending colder in the medium and long range too! Haven’t seen the EPO plots but maybe @GaWxcould lend a helping hand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 The Pacific is looking like the best I've seen in years if this pans out. Given how this last cold pattern worked out, I think it's looking more likely. SST trends last 7 days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 21 minutes ago, BooneWX said: There was so much to like not only from that run, but the GFS as well. Ensembles trending colder in the medium and long range too! Haven’t seen the EPO plots but maybe @GaWxcould lend a helping hand. The 12Z EPS is also colder in the E US vs prior runs for 12/20+. As I said elsewhere: with the last few days of trending colder 12/11-14 as well as new colder trends for 12/20-3+, it may become difficult for Dec as a whole to not end up pretty solidly BN in much of the E US. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Everything about this winter is different than the last few. A fast pattern, no real semi permanent SER, better look PAC. Not saying we score but this isn’t going to be without opportunities. Heck, some of us already are on the board. Christmas week continues to have my attention 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 The models are all over the place. Last night's op euro was way warmer than the previous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The models are all over the place. Last night's op euro was way warmer than the previous run And the Euro AI is much different with some impressive cold the week before Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 The models yesterday generally had the MJO in the COD which lended credit to a colder pattern since it avoids the influence of phases 5&6. Last night, the models honed in on it progressing from 5 to 6 and ending Dec in 7 without entering the COD. That’s why we’re in the mode of flip flopping. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 December 81 was a part of a ENSO neutral winter as we transitioned back to Nino in fall of 82. It was a December of wild swings with a nice little winter storm on the 21st. Reminds me a lot of this December so far. Then in Janaury the arctic hounds were released. Brutal cold and back to back Gulf winter storms. Warmed up after mid Janaury and eseentially winter was over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Quite quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Quite quiet Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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