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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NAM and HRRR pretty much agree with it being centered on Albermarle or so. I am debating if it is worthwhile to head that way for such a minor event. The intriguing thing is a meso low could form to the south of that region which could enhance things a bit if that is true.

With it being close you can probably follow radar trends but it occurring at night with bitter cold air moving in gives this a chance to stick if rates materialize. Also, HRRR shows the meso low you’re talking about and that could conceivably cause some heavier rates than otherwise would be expected with such dry air in play. These systems are tricky but can cause a pretty heavy burst of high ratio snow if it gets convective in nature. We’re talking 1/2” ceiling but the potential is there

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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With it being close you can probably follow radar trends but it occurring at night with bitter cold air moving in gives this a chance to stick if rates materialize. Also, HRRR shows the meso low you’re talking about and that could conceivably cause some heavier rates than otherwise would be expected with such dry air in play. These systems are tricky but can cause a pretty heavy burst of high ratio snow if it gets convective in nature. We’re talking 1/2” ceiling but the potential is there

Yeah I think I am going to head off for Albermarle tonight

 

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Mitch West:  

Looks like more than a few flakes to me. I know all about the dry air and all that, but expect some very light snowfall accumulations across the Piedmont tonight. A dusting to a half inch for some areas. 

(A half inch is enough to make the ground white by the way)

Now if it had been warm the days leading up to this event like we've seen many times in the past, then my tune would be different. But we've had multiple nights in the 20s with daytime highs only in the 50s at most. 

I am going for the over here, if I am burned then I'm cool with it.

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1863678810593329200?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

 

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20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Mitch West:  

Looks like more than a few flakes to me. I know all about the dry air and all that, but expect some very light snowfall accumulations across the Piedmont tonight. A dusting to a half inch for some areas. 

(A half inch is enough to make the ground white by the way)

Now if it had been warm the days leading up to this event like we've seen many times in the past, then my tune would be different. But we've had multiple nights in the 20s with daytime highs only in the 50s at most. 

I am going for the over here, if I am burned then I'm cool with it.

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1863678810593329200?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

 

This weather bell run gets the southern foothills into the action also. 

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1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That’s shocking. I would thought CLT has had snow in the period at least once per decade. 

Charlotte has barely seen snow this decade period. It rarely snows the first week of December anywhere outside the mountains. There are a few examples, especially in WNC, but it's more likely to snow in mid March. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Some the hi res guidance is trending north with the snow, getting Greensboro and the triangle into it later tonight. Interesting 

some of the radar trends I am seeing may support this as well.

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Snowing in the triad in Kernersville!!  About dang time.

Update - ground is already covered!!  Wake up people!  Just let the dogs out to play.

Second update - did the alien invasion scheduled for tomorrow come early and take the forum??  This is an epic overproducer for anyone with a snow craving.  I'm shocked this forum is not wide awake!!

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4 miles north of Kernersville in Pine Knolls just now. 1000037739_edited.thumb.jpeg.816d36b92551fdc37c1e5c68f6213e15.jpeg

Posting here as the Dec obs are buried under multiple pinned threads. Do all of these threads still need to be pinned? Some mod needs to unpin the Nov obs and pin the Dec obs instead. Thank you! 

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