Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[wncsnow]

I hope some folks who haven't seen accumulating snow in 3 years see some tonight but its sad this is all we have had to track in years (within 24 hours) outside the mountains. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NAM and HRRR pretty much agree with it being centered on Albermarle or so. I am debating if it is worthwhile to head that way for such a minor event. The intriguing thing is a meso low could form to the south of that region which could enhance things a bit if that is true.

With it being close you can probably follow radar trends but it occurring at night with bitter cold air moving in gives this a chance to stick if rates materialize. Also, HRRR shows the meso low you’re talking about and that could conceivably cause some heavier rates than otherwise would be expected with such dry air in play. These systems are tricky but can cause a pretty heavy burst of high ratio snow if it gets convective in nature. We’re talking 1/2” ceiling but the potential is there

[eyewall]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With it being close you can probably follow radar trends but it occurring at night with bitter cold air moving in gives this a chance to stick if rates materialize. Also, HRRR shows the meso low you’re talking about and that could conceivably cause some heavier rates than otherwise would be expected with such dry air in play. These systems are tricky but can cause a pretty heavy burst of high ratio snow if it gets convective in nature. We’re talking 1/2” ceiling but the potential is there

Yeah I think I am going to head off for Albermarle tonight

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mitch West:  

Looks like more than a few flakes to me. I know all about the dry air and all that, but expect some very light snowfall accumulations across the Piedmont tonight. A dusting to a half inch for some areas. 

(A half inch is enough to make the ground white by the way)

Now if it had been warm the days leading up to this event like we've seen many times in the past, then my tune would be different. But we've had multiple nights in the 20s with daytime highs only in the 50s at most. 

I am going for the over here, if I am burned then I'm cool with it.

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1863678810593329200?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

 

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I think I am going to head off for Albermarle tonight

 

Good luck. I think it’s the right call and hopefully we get to see some rare piedmont snow footage 

[strongwxnc]

20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Mitch West:  

Looks like more than a few flakes to me. I know all about the dry air and all that, but expect some very light snowfall accumulations across the Piedmont tonight. A dusting to a half inch for some areas. 

(A half inch is enough to make the ground white by the way)

Now if it had been warm the days leading up to this event like we've seen many times in the past, then my tune would be different. But we've had multiple nights in the 20s with daytime highs only in the 50s at most. 

I am going for the over here, if I am burned then I'm cool with it.

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1863678810593329200?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

 

This weather bell run gets the southern foothills into the action also. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tim Buckley:

https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/1863683617089638574?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[NorthHillsWx]

Would be fun to get a localized heavier band that overperforms for some areas. Seems possible based on afternoon mesoscale model runs 

[NorthHillsWx]

(This topic just turned “hot” for the first time this winter)

[jburns]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

(This topic just turned “hot” for the first time this winter)

Another embarrassment.  Lol

[eyewall]

Honestly I am having second thoughts because it would mean an all nighter lol.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Temperatures are below freezing in the Triad now, so anything that falls will stick 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Unless I missed something, this would be the first measurable snow at Charlotte in the first week of Dec since way back in 1971!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Unless I missed something, this would be the first measurable snow at Charlotte in the first week of Dec since way back in 1971!

That’s shocking. I would thought CLT has had snow in the period at least once per decade. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That’s shocking. I would thought CLT has had snow in the period at least once per decade. 

Charlotte has barely seen snow this decade period. It rarely snows the first week of December anywhere outside the mountains. There are a few examples, especially in WNC, but it's more likely to snow in mid March. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Some the hi res guidance is trending north with the snow, getting Greensboro and the triangle into it later tonight. Interesting 

[wncsnow]

This is the biggest snow in the first week of December the past 50 years. The 2018 storm was technically the 2nd week of December.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Some the hi res guidance is trending north with the snow, getting Greensboro and the triangle into it later tonight. Interesting 

some of the radar trends I am seeing may support this as well.

[kvegas-wx]

I can confirm some very light flakage on the farm cam in Stuart VA.  Virga might be about to give way to flurries.

[eyewall]

The trajectory does look good for the Triangle for now.

[wxdawg10]

radar looking kinda juicy for the triangle. Some narrow heavier bands popping up as well. Someone is going to pick up a quick inch maybe 2.

[kvegas-wx]

Snowing in the triad in Kernersville!!  About dang time.

Update - ground is already covered!!  Wake up people!  Just let the dogs out to play.

Second update - did the alien invasion scheduled for tomorrow come early and take the forum??  This is an epic overproducer for anyone with a snow craving.  I'm shocked this forum is not wide awake!!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Dusting in most of Winston so far 

[kvegas-wx]

Temp is dropping.  Glad they delayed schools in the morning.  Could be an ice rink.

[eyewall]

I am in it near US1 outside of Cameron in Moore County 

[KChuck]

4 miles north of Kernersville in Pine Knolls just now. 

Posting here as the Dec obs are buried under multiple pinned threads. Do all of these threads still need to be pinned? Some mod needs to unpin the Nov obs and pin the Dec obs instead. Thank you! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Congrats to those who saw snow! Seeing amounts to almost 2” in and around Lexington per twitter. So sounds like models were extremely accurate with band placement. We are at 25.3 degrees this morning, no snow here 

[eyewall]

The futility streak keeps rolling at RDU.