Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Euro not even close Yeah, holding energy back in the SW like it always has. That apparently wasn't worked on during recent upgrade from the way it looks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 INCOMING (12z CMC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Almost times up the northern piece of energy and the southern, but not quite. Ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Trough east of HI = ridge over the SW. The baja low will kick east. We'll see some waffling with all models on this one for a little while but it's legit possibility. Way too slow and won't make in time with the cold and a complete dud. A little slow and more ice than snow as the mid level cold pulls out and all we have left is in-situ low level cold air. Just fast enough and could be a classic I-85 snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Welp That's a "too slow" option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 12z Canadian looks ripe. I'll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I’ll be curious to see what all of the ensembles say. We have a signal, and that’s good for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I’ll be curious to see what all of the ensembles say. We have a signal, and that’s good for now. Good compared to the last 2 winters but highly unlikely to produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 In ATL for the week and about to go walking with friends in beautiful upper 40s/light winds/sunny. This wx is fantastic. I hope it lasts for awhile. If not, I’m still glad we’re getting this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Best we can do is: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Latest model consensus continues suggesting BN temperatures dominating much of the 1st half of December in the SE US. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 All I see is 4 or 5 more days of at or below average then warm up and rain. What happens after that TBD. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 The models keep showing the trough axis moving west to the lakes around that 10-12th timeframe. A Miller A before Christmas would feed families. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Eric Webb: Ironically, 2 things that are normally associated with milder winters in the eastern US & were cited by some as reasons for a milder winter again this year (westerly QBO & a strong stratosphere polar vortex/NAM) are actually going to be working to try & keep it colder this winter via enhancing the -EPO/+TNH pattern. Every situation is different & interactions between most teleconnections are non-linear. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1863196442069754159?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 There’s a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 NWS Raleigh- “While model consensus favors generally just a couple or four tenths of an inch liquid equivalent, a combination of cold ground temperatures and high snow ratios may allow for a light coating of measurable snow favored over the srn Piedmont and wrn Sandhills.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Is anyone else not able to pull up a current potential snowfall map for RAH? The dates I keep getting are from April 2024: https://www.weather.gov/rah/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Model consensus is actually very high of snow showers making it east of the mountains Tuesday morning. Obviously not much but it could wreck the snowless streaks at several reporting sites and I’m sure anyone would take a pre Christmas dusting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 9 hours ago, marsman said: Is anyone else not able to pull up a current potential snowfall map for RAH? The dates I keep getting are from April 2024: https://www.weather.gov/rah/winter I wasn't able to pull up any updated maps on that page either, but I was able to find the map below in the statewide maps section. https://www.weather.gov/rah/nc#snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern Yeah, mid to long range is looking like crap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 HRRR is pretty aggressive with the snow band tonight. Definitely could be interesting with extremely cold temps even with light amounts! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: HRRR is pretty aggressive with the snow band tonight. Definitely could be interesting with extremely cold temps even with light amounts! Part of me doesn't want our streak to end on a dusting. The Triad and Raleigh should be too dry to have any accumulation, but possibly a dusting for the East side of Charlotte and areas to the north and East (Albemarle, Rockingham, Salisbury) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Allan Huffman: I think the area with the best chance to see flakes tonight will be bounded by I I-77 to the W, HWY 421 to the E, I-40 to the N and Hwy 74 to the S. So from CLT to say Pinehurst to Pittsboro to Yadkinville A dusting is possible. Best time for a flurry in Triangle probably 1-5 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: NAM and HRRR pretty much agree with it being centered on Albermarle or so. I am debating if it is worthwhile to head that way for such a minor event. The intriguing thing is a meso low could form to the south of that region which could enhance things a bit if that is true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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