StantonParkHoya Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Here are today’s CPC days 8-14 analogs. Note the bolded, 19891221. That as many in this region know was when there was a very rare/historic SE coastal heavy snowstorm along with extreme cold for a deep SE snow (temperatures in the lower 20s with lots of wind): 19561129 19851221 19881208 20081130 19581212 20021128 19891221 19561124 19761124 19881213 It was below zero along the NC coast during that outbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Northern stream seems really dominant in the first week of Dec. Not saying we can’t score but we may ironically be waiting for the cold to relax a bit in week 2 for a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 35 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Northern stream seems really dominant in the first week of Dec. Not saying we can’t score but we may ironically be waiting for the cold to relax a bit in week 2 for a shot. I send this and 12z GFS says don’t sleep on Sunday’s potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Winters with measurable snowfall in December at GSO average 2.5 degrees below average for the month with a good deal of variance from -8.4 i ln 1989 to +4.0 in 1998. Not sure what to make of this statistic as it includes a few extreme outliers and mostly slightly below normal months. Obviously cold air is a good thing but our usual 1 in three chance of measurable snowfall is not necessarily a significantly increased probability based on the pattern ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Close https://x.com/tropicalsaiel/status/1861093130361012595?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Winters with measurable snowfall in December at GSO average 2.5 degrees below average for the month with a good deal of variance from -8.4 i ln 1989 to +4.0 in 1998. Not sure what to make of this statistic as it includes a few extreme outliers and mostly slightly below normal months. Obviously cold air is a good thing but our usual 1 in three chance of measurable snowfall is not necessarily a significantly increased probability based on the pattern ahead. The further we are from a December 2015 pattern, in general the happier I am. So far we're looking good in that realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Operational runs are starting to show the relaxation period being extended and the trough being centered too far NE. Cold temperatures have backed off some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Operational runs are starting to show the relaxation period being extended and the trough being centered too far NE. Cold temperatures have backed off some too. Hopefully, they're underestimating the Southern Stream. Since the Nina is extremely weak there's going to be some STJ Action. Also, blocking subsiding will cause models to lift the Trough NE. Thing is, those SST'S around Nova Scotia should help keep LP wanting to setup around there which should act to keep troughiness over the Eastern US. Finger's crossed on that but, those SST'S are favorable for a Ssw based 50-50 Low(60-45). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Ultimately it gets squashed, but this is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 12z icon is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Most exciting pattern in years and this website is July dead. These past few winters have truly broken all of us 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 I'm no expert, but I don't think people see anything on the horizon except a bit of colder than average air. Nothing I see is predicting any precipitation. I guess things can change, but no one wants to get their hopes up for nothing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Most exciting pattern in years and this website is July dead. These past few winters have truly broken all of us It just takes one legit system or time period to draw us back. As we continue to monitor … . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 18 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: I'm no expert, but I don't think people see anything on the horizon except a bit of colder than average air. Nothing I see is predicting any precipitation. I guess things can change, but no one wants to get their hopes up for nothing. Absolutely fair. I might be too excited about the blast of cold itself. We haven’t even sniffed a pattern in years that led to more than 3/4 days of transient cold so I’m jumping the gun a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 3 hours ago, BooneWX said: Absolutely fair. I might be too excited about the blast of cold itself. We haven’t even sniffed a pattern in years that led to more than 3/4 days of transient cold so I’m jumping the gun a bit. This is just a plumber's special. Catch a few souls off guard and break some pipes, then back into the new norms. I am very much digging my crunchy leaves. I was thinking we were going to completely miss fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 5 hours ago, stormwatcherJ said: I'm no expert, but I don't think people see anything on the horizon except a bit of colder than average air. Nothing I see is predicting any precipitation. I guess things can change, but no one wants to get their hopes up for nothing. I’m just happy to have the cold for late Nov and a good portion of the first half of Dec. Besides, wintry precip down here is rare and actually doesn’t occur most winters. Dry cold is so refreshing and is great for walking! So, I’m always happy with cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 hours ago, BooneWX said: Most exciting pattern in years and this website is July dead. These past few winters have truly broken all of us Real ones know this pattern isn't supportive of snow down here unfortunately. Then once this cold shot relaxes, we'll all be looking for fool's gold again the rest of our warm, dry winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 7 hours ago, BooneWX said: Most exciting pattern in years and this website is July dead. These past few winters have truly broken all of us That's what I said the other day. This is something we haven't seen in years. Wake up wx weenies! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 7 hours ago, BooneWX said: Most exciting pattern in years and this website is July dead. These past few winters have truly broken all of us Set up is just displaced too far east and any shortwaves get squashed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Set up is just displaced too far east and any shortwaves get squashed I don’t disagree but I’m mildly more optimistic that we aren’t dealing with a ridge that goes to Hudson Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Totally aside, but if you’re in this thread and snow starved (everybody), this is the year to book a trip or just take a day trip to the mountains for a northwest flow event. Many of the communities are welcoming back tourists, they lost massive amounts of money in October and the businesses wont survive if winter doesn’t deliver some revenue. Parts of the parkway are opening back up and idk if everyone is aware but when the parkway is closed for driving in these events, it’s open for recreation by foot or skis. It’s a good time and a great reason to head to the High Country. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: idk if everyone is aware but when the parkway is closed for driving in these events, it’s open for recreation by foot or skis. So for some reason they've decided this isn't the case for the time being. Park Service announced the other day that it is closed to all recreation when the gates are shut due to potential for downed trees and unstable ground. I think its a bit of an overreaction but that's what they've decided to do for now. Honestly a little tired of how easily public lands are getting closed since the pandemic. But yeah, most businesses saw at least a 70-80% drop in sales in October. We would love the tourism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 5 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: So for some reason they've decided this isn't the case for the time being. Park Service announced the other day that it is closed to all recreation when the gates are shut due to potential for downed trees and unstable ground. I think its a bit of an overreaction but that's what they've decided to do for now. Honestly a little tired of how easily public lands are getting closed since the pandemic. But yeah, most businesses saw at least a 70-80% drop in sales in October. We would love the tourism. That’s disappointing to hear but nonetheless, tons of good places to take the family sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I hope we can get the southern stream going a little this winter. It has been a pretty dry pattern after Helene for WNC. Next 2 weeks look very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Pacific is breaking down quicker on recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Until the PAC is a complete 180 from the last 3 years, I'm not leaning into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Gerald Mengel: Right now it looks like the best shot of snow in the south from this pattern will be from a couple of clippers that move through. The southern branch of the jet stream isn't looking like it will do us any favors over the next week. This setup favors places like Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and the mountains of NC, VA. If we get a strong clipper then snow could make it into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, but its a big ask. https://x.com/gmengel/status/1861762191424123334?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Beyond 7 days looks like a great pattern for interior New England upcoming. Which is to say, not a great pattern for us. Maybe some CAD potential,but the southern stream interaction is too far NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 13 hours ago, wncsnow said: Pacific is breaking down quicker on recent runs. Yeah, not a good sign. Hopefully things revert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Canadian ensembles get our trough axis over the Great Lakes. Something to monitor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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