NorthHillsWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 All I can say is at least the start of December is not a punt like we’re so used to doing here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 wow the 18z GFS just put us in the freezer for the foreseeable future.. looks like 76-77 type of pattern. Snow almost to the gulf coast. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Regardless of what transpires, I think we can all agree it’ll be nice to just have some weather that feels seasonal for once. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 18z GFS is probably the coldest early December look I can remember in last 7-8 years. Freezer is accurate. Moisture running underneath too. Wow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS is probably the coldest early December look I can remember in last 7-8 years. Freezer is accurate. Moisture running underneath too. Wow. I always like seeing snow cover in Wilmington/MYR on the LR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Watching this November blizzard NFL game seems like a good sign 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 12z GFS still trying for around December 5th but definitely still fantasy range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 38 minutes ago, eyewall said: 12z GFS still trying for around December 5th but definitely still fantasy range. Notably, variability up until Thanksgiving and then stays below average temps all the way to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Last night's Euro was very close about day 10. Gave some east of the mountains an inch or 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Last night's Euro was very close about day 10. Gave some east of the mountains an inch or 2. I think the one after is the one to watch. At least outside the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 That December 2-5 timeframe has potential. #1 ingredient is involved: cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 If we got 1-2” 3 weeks before Christmas I’d be happy as a clam. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 12z GFS coming in very cold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If we got 1-2” 3 weeks before Christmas I’d be happy as a clam. Makes sense: -Last time RDU got measurable Dec 1-15: 2018. -Only times since 2000 with 1”+ Dec 1-15: 2018, 2002 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Models look cold and dry. Maybe a system can sneak in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 I have been watching the forecast for the 1st week of December and our temps have been going lower and lower. Hope the trend keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Canadian has a perfect snowstorm setup incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Canadian has a perfect snowstorm setup incoming A Dec 2018 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 32 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A Dec 2018 redux Just hopefully not afterward as rest of Winter stunk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Good Lord! That is freaking cold for the first of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 This is day 10 on 12Z Euro with a weak Miller A Gulf low: so still in fantasyland/low statistical credibility period on an operational and thus mainly for entertainment showing a near best case scenario kind of thing (next run very likely won’t look similar): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is day 10 on 12Z Euro with a weak Miller A Gulf low: so still in fantasyland/low statistical credibility period on an operational and thus mainly for entertainment showing a near best case scenario kind of thing (next run very likely won’t look similar): Hooray, our first fantasy snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 within 10 days on the setup.. we'll call it a plausible solution. The cold air will definitely be there. Won't sniff out a possible low until we're within a few days with the number of weak short waves moving underneath the PV. There will be a healthy upper low off the CA coast by 144 hrs that'll be pumping out these waves in pieces as it presses in toward the PV. Most will be sheared out but after the PV spins out and gives some breathing room, that'll be perfect time to pop a low in the GOM if one of these waves can phase in enough energy on the back side of the PJ/AJ. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, yotaman said: Hooray, our first fantasy snow storm. Per 12Z EPS fwiw, this (Gulf Miller A coming across over FL pen. and then offshore SE US with it cold enough to north) on the Euro op. is as one would expect currently only a very low probability scenario: I not surprisingly count only 3 of 50 members with something fairly close in track during a similar timeframe (members 16 and 34 have sig snow like op while member 32 has only very light snow): so only 6% of members. Member 43 track is inland and produces sig snow but further NW. If I count that it’s 4/8% of members. Also, member 34 actually has a second further SE tracking Miller A two days later that gives heavy snow to the SE coast similar to the very rare pre-Christmas Dec 1989 and early Jan 2018 historic heavy coastal snowstorms. As this period gets closer we’ll see how the various ensembles trend. I think this type of analysis is what was requested by @olafminesaw 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Per 12Z EPS fwiw, this (Gulf Miller A coming across over FL pen. and then offshore SE US with it cold enough to north) on the Euro op. is as one would expect currently only a very low probability scenario: I not surprisingly count only 3 of 50 members with something fairly close in track during a similar timeframe (members 16 and 34 have sig snow like op while member 32 has only very light snow): so only 6% of members. Member 43 track is inland and produces sig snow but further NW. If I count that it’s 4/8% of members. Also, member 34 actually has a second further SE tracking Miller A two days later that gives heavy snow to the SE coast similar to the very rare pre-Christmas Dec 1989 and early Jan 2018 historic heavy coastal snowstorms. As this period gets closer we’ll see how the various ensembles trend. I think this type of analysis is what was requested by @olafminesaw Thanks as always. Good to see at least a few digital snowstorms showing during the window. Very cold air available which has been a rarity last few years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Teens are coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Teens are coming Well then it will be snowing from Birmingham to Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 GEFS suggests the cold pattern continues in the long range after a short relaxation 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Here are today’s CPC days 8-14 analogs. Note the bolded, 19891221. That as many in this region know was when there was a very rare/historic SE coastal heavy snowstorm along with extreme cold for a deep SE snow (temperatures in the lower 20s with lots of wind): 19561129 19851221 19881208 20081130 19581212 20021128 19891221 19561124 19761124 19881213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now