Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[Wow]

With nearly 20 years of GFS (AVN/MRF) running out to 384 hrs, the Euro is finally ready to pull the trigger.  This will be fun to watch.

[Upstate Tiger]

Now that's the kind of Hazard Map from the CPC that I like to see (11/22-11/28)

[Wow]

The 360 hr Euro doesn't disappoint!  That's an active STJ with arctic air diving south.

[PackGrad05]

Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze.  November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU.
The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that.

[Wow]

First fantasy storm of the season !

[strongwxnc]

2 hours ago, Wow said:

First fantasy storm of the season !

 

Start the thread

 

 

 

 

(Its only a joke folks)

[StantonParkHoya]

On 11/16/2024 at 12:23 PM, PackGrad05 said:

Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze.  November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU.
The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that.

While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days.

[KChuck]

3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days.

30 just north of Kernersville

[PackGrad05]

16 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days.

I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32.  39 is the lowest I've hit so far.  Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet?  

[olafminesaw]

15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32.  39 is the lowest I've hit so far.  Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet?  

Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing.

[Upstate Tiger]

Pattern is certainly more interesting to close the month.  Could we see some snow in NYC for the parade?

 

[wncsnow]

Pattern looks interesting the first week of December. 

[Wow]

That's it?  Man the last few years have really ripped your spirits to shreds.

The pattern looks f'ing AWESOME!!

Where are my weenies at?  

[BooneWX]

Cross polar flow, +PNA, Greenland block…. I’m cautious but the vibes are improving for me 

[BullCityWx]

In a general sense, I feel like winters that fire off like we may fire off usually end well 

[olafminesaw]

I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of  threats.

[BooneWX]

May head to the Dec 2018 storm thread just to feel tingly again

[wncsnow]

Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay

[BooneWX]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay

While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. 

[wncsnow]

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. 

It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of  threats.

 I’ve been posting in the main La Niña forecasting thread. However, these posts have been addressing changes from run to run of overall US temperatures/heating degree days (especially E US) on EPS but also some GEFS runs as opposed to narrowed to SE US temperatures or winter storm threats. As a part of that I’ve been following natural gas mkt prices, which are often a good gauge of E US ensemble HDD forecasts in week 2. Example: today’s NG high was the highest since Jan!  I also in there post about various indices and ENSO SSTa’s. Looking forward to the cooldowns!

[Wow]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. 

I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it!

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, Wow said:

I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it!

My "negativity" has been right unfortunately for the past 3 years. 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS has FIVE Canadian highs bring cold air down into the SE US! That’s a relative rarity even for the GFS. The NC mtns get 4 different NW flow accumulating events!