Wow Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 With nearly 20 years of GFS (AVN/MRF) running out to 384 hrs, the Euro is finally ready to pull the trigger. This will be fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Now that's the kind of Hazard Map from the CPC that I like to see (11/22-11/28) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 The 360 hr Euro doesn't disappoint! That's an active STJ with arctic air diving south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:23 PM Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM First fantasy storm of the season ! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Sunday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:03 PM 2 hours ago, Wow said: First fantasy storm of the season ! Start the thread (Its only a joke folks) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:00 AM On 11/16/2024 at 12:23 PM, PackGrad05 said: Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that. While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted Monday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 AM 3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. 30 just north of Kernersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:09 PM 16 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:24 PM 15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet? Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Monday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:03 PM Pattern is certainly more interesting to close the month. Could we see some snow in NYC for the parade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Pattern looks interesting the first week of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Tuesday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:09 PM That's it? Man the last few years have really ripped your spirits to shreds. The pattern looks f'ing AWESOME!! Where are my weenies at? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Cross polar flow, +PNA, Greenland block…. I’m cautious but the vibes are improving for me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM In a general sense, I feel like winters that fire off like we may fire off usually end well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago May head to the Dec 2018 storm thread just to feel tingly again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 25 minutes ago, BooneWX said: While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats. I’ve been posting in the main La Niña forecasting thread. However, these posts have been addressing changes from run to run of overall US temperatures/heating degree days (especially E US) on EPS but also some GEFS runs as opposed to narrowed to SE US temperatures or winter storm threats. As a part of that I’ve been following natural gas mkt prices, which are often a good gauge of E US ensemble HDD forecasts in week 2. Example: today’s NG high was the highest since Jan! I also in there post about various indices and ENSO SSTa’s. Looking forward to the cooldowns! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, Wow said: I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it! My "negativity" has been right unfortunately for the past 3 years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 0Z GFS has FIVE Canadian highs bring cold air down into the SE US! That’s a relative rarity even for the GFS. The NC mtns get 4 different NW flow accumulating events! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 29 minutes ago Share Posted 29 minutes ago Ensembles look pretty good first week of December. Ops are showing SER and delayed cold over the mountains. Not a terrible pattern at least. STJ looks active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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