Wow Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Over the last 50 years, the latest first freeze for RDU is November 28. I don't see anything remotely close to freezing in the next 10-15 days. If the pattern doesn't shift, we could get close to that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 I’m hopeful we save our small window of below normal temps for sometime during the last 10 days of December through the end of January. Below normal Novembers almost never turn out well TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 I've been changing the soft top to the hard top on my Jeep in late October for the past 5 years. I don't see me putting the hard top on anytime soon this year. Yes.... but... no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Unless we have a big pattern change, I don't see a frost or freeze happening to us on the coastal plain this month. We have gone thru November before without a frost and freeze. I really hope we don't this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 14 hours ago, yotaman said: Unless we have a big pattern change, I don't see a frost or freeze happening to us on the coastal plain this month. We have gone thru November before without a frost and freeze. I really hope we don't this year. Don’t see it happening here either before thanksgiving week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Seeing a PRE setting up associated with Rafael. Thankfully not currently much reason to believe heavier rainfall will set up over the mountains. Both the Euro and GFS agree central Georgia is the area to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Looks like there could a decent cold shot around the middle of the month. Question is.. how far SE will it get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Latest GFS brings Central NC almost no rain at all from the tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 In the last 36 days we have recorded measurable rainfall just once. That is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Euro with some pretty good rains for central NC Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 On 11/5/2024 at 5:18 PM, StantonParkHoya said: Euro with some pretty good rains for central NC Thursday morning We need it. One measurable rainfall in last 37 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 The La Nina blast furnace rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 2 hours ago, eyewall said: The La Nina blast furnace rolls on. The -PDO is the big Dog right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: The -PDO is the big Dog right now. Yep. Until this changes, no bueno for SE winter lovers... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Interesting latter part of GFS run. Looks like a pattern flip. Super cold third week of Nov. usual caveat of it being an Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Interesting latter part of GFS run. Looks like a pattern flip. Super cold third week of Nov. usual caveat of it being an Op It's possible. If the EPO is able to extend over the Top and dislodge the Cold and if timed right can drop into the Eastern States. Models are hinting at a -NAO to a degree as well. Odds are low because of the strongly negative PDO and +QBO however ,if you look at it historically. Of course, last Winter went against what would be expected much of the time so, who knows. Sadly, imo, the -PDO is what fouled it up. We need strong cooling of those western PAC SST'S first and foremost and warming in the GOA. In the Atlantic we need cooling of the SST'S off Newfoundland to help support a 50-50 and -NAO. Just this Antique Forecasters Opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:53 PM RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze. Record is November 28, set in 2009. I don't see it happening before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:57 PM 2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze. Record is November 28, set in 2009. I don't see it happening before then. I would agree. Another warm winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM 6 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze. Record is November 28, set in 2009. I don't see it happening before then. ‘09-‘10 winter turned out pretty good though… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below: Average snowfall : 8.23 Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49 Mid 20 Nov : 9.42 Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79 Top 20 Oct : 6.71 Mid 29 Oct : 9.93 Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06 October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below: Average snowfall : 8.23 Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49 Mid 20 Nov : 9.42 Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79 Top 20 Oct : 6.71 Mid 29 Oct : 9.93 Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06 October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year This appears to be the new normal, snow is just getting to be a less frequent event over time. I have stopped thinking about it and have just moved on. Being in Columbia SC this seems like the best way to preserve my sanity. I wish all of you snow people luck and maybe a miracle will happen and I get flurries this year while y'all get 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObiWanKarlNobi Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Maybe one year we'll have a volcano erupt at a VEI level of 7 and it will snow again in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Tuesday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:18 PM Euro finally kicks it east like the GFS.. finally going to a cold(er) pattern late Nov. I'm ready! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM 13 minutes ago, Wow said: Euro finally kicks it east like the GFS.. finally going to a cold(er) pattern late Nov. I'm ready! Fun to have something to watch for at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted Wednesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:19 PM Euro could really flip the script and erase major amounts of our + departures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Fun seeing some cold air showing up on models in addition to an active storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM Dang entire 12z EPS suite out by 2PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM https://x.com/PivotalWeather/status/1856751025610203429 Weenies rejoice! The Euro now goes out to 360 hrs on Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Wednesday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:21 PM 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: https://x.com/PivotalWeather/status/1856751025610203429 Weenies rejoice! The Euro now goes out to 360 hrs on Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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