yotaman Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 On 7/1/2024 at 12:34 PM, cbmclean said: No July Obs thread yet, so I'll say it here: it's delightful out there. Too bad it's just a brief respite. It was up about 1 hour before you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 July 1st was indeed delightful in Eastern North Carolina. And then came the real July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 On 7/8/2024 at 8:35 PM, Silver Meteor said: July 1st was indeed delightful in Eastern North Carolina. And then came the real July. Hell on earth type of summer unfolding for everyone - even us foothill folks to your west. Glad yall will get some much needed rain this week, just don’t hog it all and be sure to share with the rest of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Regarding the NHC TWO disturbance in C MDR: 1. The Euro/EPS and CMC have had a TC on a good number of runs in a row with the CMC hitting the NE Gulf and the Euro having a couple of hundred miles offshore NC TC. But the GFS, ICON, and UKMET have mainly been quiet. 2. Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 On 7/28/2024 at 10:18 AM, GaWx said: Regarding the NHC TWO disturbance in C MDR: 1. The Euro/EPS and CMC have had a TC on a good number of runs in a row with the CMC hitting the NE Gulf and the Euro having a couple of hundred miles offshore NC TC. But the GFS, ICON, and UKMET have mainly been quiet. 2. Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC. The wave train is looking quite healthy as we head into August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Great discussion in the main tropical thread but it looks like the SE coast could be in for some very rough weather this next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Watching for a very rare potential widespread flooding rain disaster much of this area from Debby. The good news is that the last two Euros (6Z and 0Z of 8/4) are progressive to the N/NE instead of the very highly anomalous loop back NW to the coast that the prior runs back to the 8/2 12Z run had been having. However, the 0Z/6Z GFS maintained a loop back inland through GA. Going back to 1851, I haven’t been able to find even just one storm on record that went inland into NW FL from the Gulf and that after going offshore the SE also curved back NW into N FL, GA, or SC. I’ll recheck when I have time. The closest I could find was Easy of 1950. So, hopefully this means the crazy stall and NW turn back into the coast down here won’t occur. If not, the most extreme progged rainfall amounts wouldn’t materialize. Go to Debby thread in tropical forum for more details. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 18 minutes ago, GaWx said: Watching for a very rare potential widespread flooding rain disaster much of this area from Debby. The good news is that the last two Euros (6Z and 0Z of 8/4) are progressive to the N/NE instead of the very highly anomalous loop back NW to the coast that the prior runs back to the 8/2 12Z run had been having. However, the 0Z/6Z GFS maintained a loop back inland through GA. Going back to 1851, I haven’t been able to find even just one storm on record that went inland into NW FL from the Gulf and that after going offshore the SE also curved back NW into N FL, GA, or SC. I’ll recheck when I have time. The closest I could find was Easy of 1950. So, hopefully this means the crazy stall and NW turn back into the coast down here won’t occur. If not, the most extreme progged rainfall amounts wouldn’t materialize. Go to Debby thread in tropical forum for more details. Great post! This is going to be the biggest forum wide weather maker we’ve had in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Crazy the differences between the GFS and Euro 3 days out! Big differences in rain totals for the Piedmont. Coastal areas especially in South Carolina of course should get soaked regardless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I was asked about how it looks for Fort Liberty (formerly Ft. Brag) near Fayetteville. I told her that the heaviest rain would likely be Wed night and Thu with only mainly light rain prior to that. I also told her that Fri didn’t look too bad with it the storm mainly done by then. She said someone who lived there was visiting their mom in FL and had planned to return on Thu. I told her to tell him to come home on Fri instead. Does this sound about right? Any opinions would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, GaWx said: I was asked about how it looks for Fort Liberty (formerly Ft. Brag) near Fayetteville. I told her that the heaviest rain would likely be Wed night and Thu with only mainly light rain prior to that. I also told her that Fri didn’t look too bad with it the storm mainly done by then. She said someone who lived there was visiting their mom in FL and had planned to return on Thu. I told her to tell him to come home on Fri instead. Does this sound about right? Any opinions would be appreciated. Sounds like good advice to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 It appears that the ENSO neautral phase is lingering and the move to La Nina is slower than forecast. Would love to have one neutral winter or at least remain neutral until early winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 I am just looking for a stretch where the dewpoint isn't 75F plus lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 23 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: It appears that the ENSO neautral phase is lingering and the move to La Nina is slower than forecast. Would love to have one neutral winter or at least remain neutral until early winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow As a Wolfpack alum that had many a snowball fight in the quad, I find this stunning. I can see a year, or maybe two, but three full years?? I think we had heavy snow every year I was in Raleigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow Hard to believe! Growing up in the 70s in SC I was always jealous because it seemed Hickory, Winston, Greensboro, and Raleigh got more snow than us in Greenville. And we got a lot by today’s standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 On 7/10/2024 at 1:35 PM, BooneWX said: Hell on earth type of summer unfolding for everyone - even us foothill folks to your west. Glad yall will get some much needed rain this week, just don’t hog it all and be sure to share with the rest of the forum. Watch what you ask for! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 On 8/10/2024 at 10:05 AM, NorthHillsWx said: It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow Yep once last season was blown we were guaranteed the 1000 day threshold. With another La Nina we could be closing in on 1400 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 12 hours ago, KChuck said: Watch what you ask for! lol. Debby dumped 4.33 at my place. My comment aged like Greg Oden. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 This upcoming week looks spectacular in NC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 16 hours ago, cbmclean said: This upcoming week looks spectacular in NC. It does but the heat is coming back big time and possibly for weeks. Next week should be in the 90s for most of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 59 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It does but the heat is coming back big time and possibly for weeks. Next week should be in the 90s for most of NC. Enjoy this freaking week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Enjoy this freaking week This is the mid-long range thread, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This is the mid-long range thread, no? You know that will and can change but we are still in August too. Heck Ashevilles average highs are still in the mid 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You know that will and can change but we are still in August too. Heck Ashevilles average highs are still in the mid 80s. I know, but I don't like what I am seeing long range. Persistent SE riding could lead to the heart dome over the southern plains to move this way and it could be hot and dry for weeks into September. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 7 hours ago, wncsnow said: I know, but I don't like what I am seeing long range. Persistent SE riding could lead to the heart dome over the southern plains to move this way and it could be hot and dry for weeks into September. Hope I'm wrong. I suspect you're not wrong. After experiencing the last 10+ falls I am just taking it for granted that the SER will be the default state this fall (and probably this winter too). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 8 hours ago, Met1985 said: You know that will and can change but we are still in August too. Heck Ashevilles average highs are still in the mid 80s. Yeah, hopefully EC is wrong. It does have a warm bias so, may not be quite as hot as depicted if that Pattern is realized. The worry is that Ridge locking in for an extended period if it gets in that position. The extended hot/dry period in June and early July may be the similar outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Could be close to triple digits next week in piedmont/coastal plain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Could be close to triple digits next week in piedmont/coastal plain Hopefully this will be the last heat wave of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 4 hours ago, wncsnow said: Could be close to triple digits next week in piedmont/coastal plain Always just in time for week 1 of college football 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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