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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week 
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system 
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

 12Z/18Z GFS/Euro, 12Z UKMET, and 18Z ICON all show something threatening a portion of the coast between FL and SC Thu/Fri. There is moderate support for a WNW moving TD to TS moving ashore among the GFS/EPS members. Go to Tropical thread for more info.

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At least most of y’all had two months worth of rain last month. This is going to be pushing the lowest precip month ever (0.79”) since I’ve lived at my current house (6 years). We have just 0.31” through 18 days. Add in the heat, it’s a tinder box

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14 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

No you don't, we are getting it up here starting tomorrow

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

True but it doesn't last half the year up there LOL.

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On 6/18/2024 at 2:13 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

At least most of y’all had two months worth of rain last month. This is going to be pushing the lowest precip month ever (0.79”) since I’ve lived at my current house (6 years). We have just 0.31” through 18 days. Add in the heat, it’s a tinder box

I am at 21 days with no rain with no rain forecasted until next Monday.

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 Invest 92L was designated earlier this evening and is headed WNW/NW toward the SE coast early Fri. I’m extra interested in following this despite pretty low odds of it becoming a TD because it is headed toward (near) my area and may bring some rain late week, regardless. It would be nice if it could bring decent rains to the very dry areas but that’s not looking likely as of now.

 Here’s the thread for anyone interested:

 

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Not surprisingly, the abnormally dry area in NC has EXPLODED from 4% of the state to 66% of the state just in the last week according this weeks drought monitor! That’s a massive change and I can say that given the infrequent nature of the rains of last month, many areas were already seeing very dry conditions despite not being classified as such. I expect drought conditions to overtake the eastern half of the state by next week and worsen unless we get a tropical system. Pop up showers aren’t going to get it done at this point, and obviously we haven’t even had any of those in 2+ weeks 

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Light W winds found by recon and newest convection appears to be just N of the LLC of Invest 92L.

I’ve got my fingers crossed that the dry air and front coming doesn’t completely destroy it. Any rain is good rain and I want to stay in denial of drought for as long as possible B) 

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On 6/23/2024 at 9:53 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s during weather like this that I question why I choose to live here

Agreed.

 

Although technically not in a drought yet here, it's amazing how bone dry the grass has become the last two weeks.  La Nina doing La Nina things now after a decently wet spring.

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

End of week trending drier again. Really looking likely we’ll end the month under 1/2” rain

Does not look good for at least the next 10-14 days. Areas near the coast might get a little more. 

qpf_acc-imp.us_ma (7).png

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16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Does not look good for at least the next 10-14 days. Areas near the coast might get a little more. 

qpf_acc-imp.us_ma (7).png

That would be 0.00 inches IMBY in Cornelius. We are that rain void right on the lake.

No rain here in over 3 weeks now.

Crunchy grass vibes.

My garden does not oblige.

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