kvegas-wx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Mama nature is going to run my well dry again this year trying to grow corn. Can't even fill my extra water tanks I added. Our string of luck has been so bad that when the dam finally breaks on our winter weather we might just have a historic snowfall event. (it could also signal the beginning of the ice age) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 GFS now in alignment with other models showing virtually no rain (<.25) over the next 10 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 The models are near unanimous in showing a sub -20 mean 10 mb (strat.) wind at 60N on March 15th. That would be the 2nd most negative 10 mb wind in March since records started in 1959. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS now in alignment with other models showing virtually no rain (<.25) over the next 10 days. Man-sorry you guys have missed the rain. Us update SC folks have been hammered lately. Lake Hartwell currently 2' over full lake level, after being down almost 8' in early December.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 0z GFS even drier. Gets us to 27th with 0.0” of rain for parts of central N.C. For central N.C. these are not positive trends especially in areas that have missed out on some of the heavier rains recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 There are some model hints that the period around 3/23-5 might include interesting wx in a good portion of the SE. Keep in mind that “interesting wx” and “winter storm” are not one and the same even though a winter storm is obviously interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Seems to be a somewhat solid agreement of a decent shot at area wide rain next Friday, maybe weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I think we might have to wait a few weeks after this weekend to see widespread 70s'-80 again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Was just thinking about how the models can't get it right when it comes to snow., they also can't do it with rain. Hell, 24 hours ago we (Piedmont area specifically) weren't supposed to see more than a couple light to moderate passing showers, then last night some mets were saying it may be a bit wetter than they originally thought, then this morning we've got widespread storms and moderate to heavy rain that's supposed to last a majority of the afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 For a 40% chance of rain, there sure was a lot of thunder, lightening, and flooding over the last 4 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Yuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 0.00” rain here. NWS had bumped us up to likely pops but nothing. Completely evaporated moving into central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 We have gone from a 60% chance down to a 40% chance for tonight and Sunday night from 70 to 50 as of today. So much pollen in the air and on the cars and ground. Was really hoping for a good rain to wash it all away. Now looks like we will have to wait until next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Hopefully we get some good rains Friday-Saturday because it looks exceptionally SE-ridgy/dry beyond the weekend and it truly hasn’t rained much here lately. Western areas and South Carolina a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Hopefully we get some good rains Friday-Saturday because it looks exceptionally SE-ridgy/dry beyond the weekend and it truly hasn’t rained much here lately. Western areas and South Carolina a different story Not to mention everything is lemon yellow from the pollen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not to mention everything is lemon yellow from the pollen Pollen is terrible right now and getting worse by the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 On 3/18/2024 at 6:44 AM, NorthHillsWx said: Hopefully we get some good rains Friday-Saturday because it looks exceptionally SE-ridgy/dry beyond the weekend and it truly hasn’t rained much here lately. Western areas and South Carolina a different story Indeed, it looks wet for many areas of the SE late week into the weekend. Also, the latest drought map for the SE overall looks good and way better than it looked 2.5 months ago thanks to El Niño. I know N GA could use a break from recent heavy rains with plentiful creek/river flooding (I saw it) and fortunately it doesn’t look too heavy there. My area (SE GA) has averaged near normal though not too far away in Charleston it has been too wet. This is how bad it was 12/26/23: Fantastic improvement most areas since then with dry area of E NC in line for heavy rain by weekend: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 46 minutes ago, GaWx said: Indeed, it looks wet for many areas of the SE late week into the weekend. Also, the latest drought map for the SE overall looks good and way better than it looked 2.5 months ago thanks to El Niño. I know N GA could use a break from recent heavy rains with plentiful creek/river flooding (I saw it) and fortunately it doesn’t look too heavy there. My area (SE GA) has averaged near normal though not too far away in Charleston it has been too wet. This is how bad it was 12/26/23: Fantastic improvement most areas since then with dry area of E NC in line for heavy rain by weekend: Yep the drought from last fall has been erased but we haven’t had measurable rain since March 9 and it’s quickly dried out during that time. Friday should be wet but we’ve seen a lot of recent systems fall apart for central NC this spring so hopefully that trend is halted. April and May are typically dry months for us so going into them dry can be a bad thing as we start to really warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 12g gfs gives a lot of NC an inch or more this weekend. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 The whole 12z gfs run.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 12z euro is on board also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 OMG all this "weekend rain" can eat a d**k. I realize that a lot of you have been without...but upstate SC does not need more rain right now. That December drought monitor graphic is sus as hell by the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/19/2024 at 1:01 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Yep the drought from last fall has been erased but we haven’t had measurable rain since March 9 and it’s quickly dried out during that time. Friday should be wet but we’ve seen a lot of recent systems fall apart for central NC this spring so hopefully that trend is halted. April and May are typically dry months for us so going into them dry can be a bad thing as we start to really warm up. After the late week/weekend expected good rains in a decent portion of the SE, mid to late next week also looks wet for much of the SE on most runs of the various models, including ensembles. However, the 6Z GFS was a good bit less wet for mid to late next week than most prior runs. Then again, its own ensemble mean says the op is a dry outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/19/2024 at 12:10 PM, GaWx said: Indeed, it looks wet for many areas of the SE late week into the weekend. Also, the latest drought map for the SE overall looks good and way better than it looked 2.5 months ago thanks to El Niño. I know N GA could use a break from recent heavy rains with plentiful creek/river flooding (I saw it) and fortunately it doesn’t look too heavy there. My area (SE GA) has averaged near normal though not too far away in Charleston it has been too wet. This is how bad it was 12/26/23: Fantastic improvement most areas since then with dry area of E NC in line for heavy rain by weekend: Drought monitor map from today (as of 3/19/24): far NW GA dry area gone, but E NC area expanded slightly including in the Fayetteville vicinity. Based on most model runs’ precip progs for the next 10 days (i.e., assuming the 6Z GFS won’t verify), there may be no yellow in NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Drought monitor map from today (as of 3/19/24): far NW GA dry area gone, but E NC area expanded slightly including in the Fayetteville vicinity. Based on most model runs’ precip progs for the next 10 days (i.e., assuming the 6Z GFS won’t verify), there may be no yellow in NC. I'd say the next 10 days look very unsettled for a large portion of the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 GFS looks like it's drying out for most of us after this storm. The only areas picking up anything notable will be along the coast until the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 On 3/22/2024 at 10:14 AM, UnionCountyNCWX said: GFS looks like it's drying out for most of us after this storm. The only areas picking up anything notable will be along the coast until the end of the run. I’m not mad at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I’m not mad at it Now we go into phase 8 of MJO. About a month or so too late. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Is the 12Z GFS on crack? Inquiring minds want to know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Is the 12Z GFS on crack? Inquiring minds want to know.Probably Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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