Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[LakeNormanStormin]

@GaWx

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, marsman said:

Too bad you missed Feb 2003 in DC. Was some severe Milk, Bread, and TP going on. I remember having to shovel out my clothes dryer exhaust from a 4' drift next to the house. It was the first time I teleworked. Also remember a sleet storm in either 06 or 07. It was like walking through beach sand.

I know, I missed the 2003 storm and “snowmaggedon” both by a year! That sleet storm was one of the wildest winter storms I’ve ever seen though. I think it was 6-7” of pure sleet and turned into a glacier that stuck around through March 

There was another storm, can’t remember the year, but we were supposed to get rain, then they issued an advisory for 1-3” but it was still supposed to switch to rain early, then the day of it just kept snowing aggregates and they upped us to a warning after we had probably 6” otg. Idk what the final tally was but it was super exciting and unexpected 

[btownheel]

Appreciate the updates all winter guys. Sorry for all we busted so hard (again). One of these years, maybe…


.

[Tullioz]

20 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. 

I agree. My area averages around an inch of snow in March, and as recently as 2018, there was a dusting of snow as late as April 7th. There were also three separate snow events in March of that year, totaling close to 10" for the month, with 3" of that coming on March 24 and 25th. Today is only February 15th, and we still have six weeks to work with. I know the ensambles and other long-range guidance do not look good at the moment, but just a couple of weeks ago, these same forecast tools were showing a great pattern for the period we are in now, and look how that turned out. I'm with you; I think many areas outside the mountains will see some winter weather before this season is over. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

I agree. My area averages around an inch of snow in March, and as recently as 2018, there was a dusting of snow as late as April 7th. There were also three separate snow events in March of that year, totaling close to 10" for the month, with 3" of that coming on March 24 and 25th. Today is only February 15th, and we still have six weeks to work with. I know the ensambles and other long-range guidance do not look good at the moment, but just a couple of weeks ago, these same forecast tools were showing a great pattern for the period we are in now, and look how that turned out. I'm with you; I think many areas outside the mountains will see some winter weather before this season is over. 

I don’t know the ages of members on this site but I would venture to say many were not around in 1993.I remember it as we didn’t receive any snow that winter before March.We had warm temperatures in February too. 
My wife and I went to Maryland valentines weekend that year. 
40’s and rain at home but major snowstorm on 81 in Va.   

 

[Tullioz]

45 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I don’t know the ages of members on this site but I would venture to say many were not around in 1993.I remember it as we didn’t receive any snow that winter before March.We had warm temperatures in February too. 

Yeah, anyone under the age of 35 either wasn't born yet or doesn't remember the winter of 1993 and the years leading up to that winter. I did measure an inch of snow on February 26, 1993, but prior to that, I had gone more than three years without seeing accumulating snow in Rockingham County. As bad as this current streak of snowless winters has been, the early 1990s were worse in this part of NC. 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

Yeah, anyone under the age of 35 either wasn't born yet or doesn't remember the winter of 1993 and the years leading up to that winter. I did measure an inch of snow on February 26, 1993, but prior to that, I had gone more than three years without seeing accumulating snow in Rockingham County. As bad as this current streak of snowless winters has been, the early 1990s were worse in this part of NC. 

I member when we had to walk uphill both ways to school in the snow! Darn millennials. 

[CaryWx]

2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I don’t know the ages of members on this site but I would venture to say many were not around in 1993.I remember it as we didn’t receive any snow that winter before March.We had warm temperatures in February too. 
My wife and I went to Maryland valentines weekend that year. 
40’s and rain at home but major snowstorm on 81 in Va.   

 

I go back to the carolina crusher of '73.  Was in the southeastern part of the state. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

I go back to the carolina crusher of '73.  Was in the southeastern part of the state. 

I was 9 years old in Wilmington ( out sick that day) when we got 12.8” February 8th or so 1973.  Jim Burns said that it was going to go from sleet to rain at noon on a Friday then it sleeted harder and started to snow about 4 pm.  Snowed all night, sleeted the next day then ended as snow on a Saturday night.   

[Coach McGuirk]

Early January 2018 was the greatest snowstorm I have experienced.  It was frozen before the storm so everything stuck. Straight up blizzard in the Hampton Roads. I got 12-14 inches of snow. The low pressure system was equivelant to a cat 3.  I feel we will never see that again.

[wncsnow]

March 93 was epic here but l was only 5. I do remember it, mostly the power being out for a week or more and the thundersnow (which I haven't seen since). The Christmas snow of 2010 has a special place in my heart even though it was only 8 inches here. It was the first and last time I have seen a legitimate snowstorm on Christmas Day and one of the few times I was home for the holidays back in those days. Of course it was so poorly modeled and was nothing 2 days out. Plus it was one of the last Christmases with my mom. It was a special day. 

[Upstate Tiger]

I hate you youngons missed some of the monsters from the 70s and 80s. 93 is in a category of its own though. 

[CaryWx]

32 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I hate you youngons missed some of the monsters from the 70s and 80s. 93 is in a category of its own though. 

I didn't miss the '93 storm.  It missed me. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It depends where you were in 93.  We only got about 4 -5 inches of snow here just north of RDU after it rained all day.

We got 21” of snow in one night in 2000.

 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

It depends where you were in 93.  We only got about 4 -5 inches of snow here just north of RDU after it rained all day.

We got 21” of snow in one night in 2000.

 

Yeah that storm had an inland track. I was on Long Island and we had 8 inches of snow followed by heavy rain. There was a flash freeze behind it which turned any remaining snow into a block of ice. Birmingham Alabama had twice the amount of snow we did from that one.

[NorthHillsWx]

Jan 2000 will never be topped in central NC. From the blown forecast of almost no snow when we went to bed to waking up to nearly 2 ft, plus just the ridiculous rates that continued into daylight. There were several storms that year too. That’s what made me a weenie, that and hurricane Fran 4 years earlier. The top two weather events of my life in a 4 year span. The Christmas snow is on up there, as is the near foot of snow we got in 2002. The 2002 snow was memorable as I was at a hurricane’s game when it started and I remember Greg Fischel coming on the Jumbotron doing a weather update saying snow had arrived earlier and forecast amounts had increased. We left after the game and walked out to a winter wonderland, whereas it was bare outside when we went in.

[NorthHillsWx]

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

That was one of the worst heartbreakers for sure.

[GaWx]

 I know I “Kevined” out on the 2/18-9 threat the night before last. But for the record the GFS (12Z) won’t stop its teasing and it has been trending back this way (the semi-reliable NW trend) the last few runs with sharper H5 near Miss. River along with a more organized sfc low. In addition, the GEFS, which had been having ~1/3 of its members with similar, has increased to 60% of its members (the most yet) with similar on the 12Z. Like it or not, going to have to watch this being that it’s back to showing snow falling on the back end and now this is at only hour 48 (actually hour 42 is showing snow falling over S AL).

 

 

Textbook split flow:

 

And then the 12Z CMC is doing its own kind of teasing.

[Awesomesauce81]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I know I “Kevined” out on the 2/18-9 threat the night before last. But for the record the GFS (12Z) won’t stop its teasing and it has been trending back this way (the semi-reliable NW trend) the last few runs with sharper H5 near Miss. River along with a more organized sfc low. In addition, the GEFS, which had been having ~1/3 of its members with similar, has increased to 60% of its members (the most yet) with similar on the 12Z. Like it or not, going to have to watch this being that it’s back to showing snow falling on the back end and now this is at only hour 48 (actually hour 42 is showing snow falling over S AL).

 

 

Textbook split flow:

 

And then the 12Z CMC is doing its own kind of teasing.

You've done a wonderful job all winter Larry. It's almost like Mother Nature wants you to keep going lol

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

28 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

You've done a wonderful job all winter Larry. It's almost like Mother Nature wants you to keep going lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=cpc

You almost have to laugh at this map. Florida is cooler than most of the US 

2/21-2/25

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

That was one of the worst heartbreakers for sure.

The worst heartbreaker here(among many) was March 1, 2009 Upper Level Low. We got a dusting and literally 15 miles west and 20 miles east had 4 inches or more. It was too warm for the first part of the storm then the ULL went just too far south and we missed the deform band. That led to downsloping wind and flurries while Shelby-Hickory got hammered. 

 

Another reason this was painful was because the previous 2 winters were bad. Not as bad as these last 2 though. 

[GaWx]

Although one can see a similar but more subtle NW trend on the Euro, it still is showing no SE snow from this Gulf low. And the EPS still has nada like all runs before. All 50 members are still too far south to show snow. The GEPS also still has no members with snow. This vs 60% of GEFS members with back edge snow falling (most probably have none sticking), mainly light. The main reason GEFS has so many with snow is that its mean sfc low is further N and slightly stronger. Whether or not it’s also too cold I can’t say. But a more wound up low with heavier precip will bring down colder air.

Summary: Euro/UK/ICON all remain too far SE though with subtle NW trends that we’ll see weather will continue. GFS/CMC are further NW and are at least close to producing some snow falling on the NW edge of the precip. Same camps as two days ago. 
 Key is whether or not the NW trend will continue.

[NorthHillsWx]

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

JB says rocking coast to coast til Easter after early March warm. 

[Blizzard22]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

March is looking very chilly across much of the south according to the CPC. 

[Blizzard22]

Just now, Blizzard22 said:

March is looking very chilly across much of the south according to the CPC. 

 

[BooneWX]

4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The worst heartbreaker here(among many) was March 1, 2009 Upper Level Low. We got a dusting and literally 15 miles west and 20 miles east had 4 inches or more. It was too warm for the first part of the storm then the ULL went just too far south and we missed the deform band. That led to downsloping wind and flurries while Shelby-Hickory got hammered. 

 

Another reason this was painful was because the previous 2 winters were bad. Not as bad as these last 2 though. 

This storm and its gradient were absolutely wild. Lenoir barely getting a coating but granite falls getting half a foot is quite amazing since thats just a few miles as the crow flies.

[NorthHillsWx]

For what it’s worth, 18z GFS inched closer again 

[CaryWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For what it’s worth, 18z GFS inched closer again 

closer to what exactly?