StantonParkHoya Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It cannot be understated how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of the Atlantic and La Niña forecast to come back. Well our Nino just acted like a Nina, so not sure we can plan for anything in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Well our Nino just acted like a Nina, so not sure we can plan for anything in that regard. The fact we had the numbers we had last year in spite of an Nino was impressive. I wouldn’t say it acted like a Nina, shear was in places you’d expect towards the end of the season in a Nino and storm tracks were very Nino like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 56 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It cannot be understated understood how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of if the Atlantic and La Niña forecast is to come back. ftfy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12Z GFS has a short period of snow 2/18 on the radar depiction fwiw for the 4th of the last 5 runs in a portion of coastal NC due to very dry air aloft. But with temps in the low 40s, there's no accumulation. A good number (8) of the 30 GEFS ensemble members show similar. So, though not at all likely, it is also far from impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date. What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date. What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date. What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. Considering NWS RAH is more concerned with fire weather during this time I am not impressed. It seems like this may end up more of a Virginia event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again Well I accidentally ran over a squirrel today so maybe we just need Eyewall to do a ritualistic dance at Carter Finley Stadium and we will be good? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Well I accidentally ran over a squirrel today so maybe we just need Eyewall to do a ritualistic dance at Carter Finley Stadium and we will be good? I would do that on the 50 yard line right now if it would work. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, GaWx said: What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. Are you serious??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Remember the advertised pattern shift? Well this is where we are at instead: Thursday Sunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Friday Night A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 55. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: Remember the advertised pattern shift? Well this is where we are at instead: Thursday Sunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Friday Night A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 55. It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago? The models are obviously horrible any more. just look at the storm the they just went north. I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago? The models are obviously horrible any more. just look at the storm the they just went north. I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. Yeah at this point Raleigh has the climate of far southern Georgia so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago? The models are obviously horrible any more. just look at the storm the they just went north. I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. Never know, it's entirely possible, but it's gonna have to be a miracle in march as Feb seems to be cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Yeah at this point Raleigh has the climate of far southern Georgia so who knows. It’s funny, when I was in DC in 2008, the phrase was DC now has the climate of Raleigh. Then 2009/10 happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s funny, when I was in DC in 2008, the phrase was DC now has the climate of Raleigh. Then 2009/10 happened. I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9. Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. 12 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, GaWx said: Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9. Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. You've done a wonderful job Larry. Very much appreciated. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, Met1985 said: You've done a wonderful job Larry. Very much appreciated. Very disappointing winter for sure. Thought we’d get at least 1 event. Hopefully this summer is not a dry scorcher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Appreciate all the play by plays this winter @GaWx! Shout out to @wncsnowfor keeping it real all winter and getting a lot of hate along the way. Wasn't what any of us wanted, but sometimes that's how it shakes out. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, GaWx said: Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9. Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, WNC_Fort said: Appreciate all the play by plays this winter @GaWx! Shout out to @wncsnowfor keeping it real all winter and getting a lot of hate along the way. Wasn't what any of us wanted, but sometimes that's how it shakes out. Getting blanked 2 years in a row is just freaking awful. Raleigh will reach the 1000 day mark sometime in October and I believe 1044 days by the time the next meteorological winter begins. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, GaWx said: Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9. Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. @GaWxThanks for all your insightful posts this winter, despite our lack of real winter weather around here lately your efforts are always helpful and give context. If anyone on here deserves to get a load of snow it is you. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Agree with all. Thanks for all your work this winter GaWx. I enjoyed your posts. I 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm. Too bad you missed Feb 2003 in DC. Was some severe Milk, Bread, and TP going on. I remember having to shovel out my clothes dryer exhaust from a 4' drift next to the house. It was the first time I teleworked. Also remember a sleet storm in either 06 or 07. It was like walking through beach sand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We all appreciated your work GaWx!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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