GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Major snowfall 2/18 E NC to the coast on 12Z Euro! Edit: There’s also followup light precip breaking out deep S on 2/19 within a strong wedge associated with a second weak GOM low. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Doesn't get much closer than that for most of NC for an area wide snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Also of note, the models are trending towards a quick reload after the system to not really deviate from a favorable pattern. Of course we will be fighting an uphill battle with climo at that stage but it's also not necessarily do or die for the PD storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Major snowfall 2/18 E NC to the coast on 12Z Euro! Edit: There’s also followup light precip breaking out deep S on 2/19 within a strong wedge associated with a second weak GOM low. That sort of evolution has worked on many times before. Christmas 2009 or was it 2010? Comes to mind. Two separate waves delivering the goods to different areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just need that to amplify sooner and that's a proper region wide slider. You can see how when it finally strengthens off the coast it pulls cold air into the system. Timing moved a bit towards the GFS, still think a slower southern wave is better for us but I'm sure it's gonna bounce around a bit for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If that dang pacific trough would back off and quit nudging into the west coast we'd be in business big time and not have so many sticking points in the forecast that could go wrong. Seems a proper PNA ridge continues to just be impossible to come by like it has been for years now. Lack of snow has not been surprising given that fact. To me it's the most important factor because it encourages the northern stream to dig hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Some of you might want to invest in a trampoline to help get you up from the bottom of the cliff after each model run 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12Z EPS has a good number of suppressed low tracks, not too unlike prior runs. Suppressed would obviously give a good portion of the SE more opportunities. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 FWIW, the 12z EURO Control is similar to Euro, except a little further North. This storm signal is still there. Hoping the GFS comes back aroundSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Dare I say that happy hour might be interesting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Dare I say that happy hour might be interesting? Done went ahead and jinxed the whole run lol. (may bite my words after 204, but ain't looking good until that point) 216 heavy snow in the NC northern mountains, maybe some foothills. I40 North/west of Greensboro essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Thank you 18z GFS!! A step in the right direction! Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: 216 heavy snow in the NC northern mountains, maybe some foothills. I40 North/west of Greensboro essentially. It would be a nice event for the foothills and NW Piedmont of NC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It's not Perfect, but better than previous runs!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Taken verbatim, solid 8-10" between Asheville and Hickory Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Average out the 12z and 18z and you get great storm for many. Good run considering suppression from the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Tullioz said: It would be a nice event for the foothills and NW Piedmont of NC. Maybe it's progged differently between the run hours, but that snow outside of the mountains/foothills is falling into 35-38 degree weather if not really close to 40. with 60's the day before. Taken verbatim with the modeling, I honestly don't really buy it showing those high of totals of snow falling outside the mountains based on the surface maps. But it is something to keep an eye on. (looking at TT for maps) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Honestly, the only thing we really needed to score BIG on the 18Z is a HP a couple of ticks stronger, and either anchored in place longer, or evolve a little more NE instead of shooting E out to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Taken verbatim, solid 8-10" between Asheville and Hickory Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk That's me. I do think areas outlined this run are favored(climo) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Maybe it's progged differently between the run hours, but that snow outside of the mountains/foothills is falling into 35-38 degree weather if not really close to 40. WB maps are showing surface temperatures near freezing during the heaviest precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Tullioz said: WB maps are showing surface temperatures near freezing during the heaviest precipitation. Actually that goes right along with what I said earlier, as TT won't show the 21z frame and looked slight warmer before/after this frame, so that does help a lot for sure, thanks for posting that frame! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Verbatim I got blanked there, but I'd take that look and bet on CAD being a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Verbatim if that track doesn’t produce snow in central NC it will never snow from a coastal here again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z GEFS is solid again for the possible PDSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: It's not Perfect, but better than previous runs! Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Wild how the GFS knows exactly where I-85 is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Wild how the GFS knows exactly where I-85 is Ya, back in my day, before the interstate the storms didn’t know where to go 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 hours ago, GaWx said: Wintry precip way down in my area on 2/18 on 12Z GFS! These sharp changes from run to run show the level of uncertainty. Not all of this is snow as some is other wintry: Kind of reminds me of the 73 bowling ball. I've been reading about the year without a summer, and they were complaining about the warm winters, and how it used to get cold, etc. and it was warm right until about a year after Tambora blew...then suddenly heavy snows in May and off they went, lol. Of course we don't have a historic volcano going off, but other things can make anomalous weather. Of course they had a huge sun spot that looked like a spider on the sun, and people were watching it without fear because of all the dust...so watch out for spiders on the sun. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: Wild how the GFS knows exactly where I-85 is Normally it's I40, so this is a step better than compared to the past few years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time: ”If the model output were to come to fruition…” ”If the model output were to become reality…” ”Taken literally…” ”If the model output were to be unembellished…” ”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…” Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with: ”Taken punctiliously…” Carry on and let it snow. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time: ”If the model output were to come to fruition…” ”If the model output were to become reality…” ”Taken literally…” ”If the model output were to be unembellished…” ”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…” Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with: ”Taken punctiliously…” Carry on and let it snow. Spoken like a true calculus teacher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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