olafminesaw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work. A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go... Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South Yep, that's why selfishly I would prefer the Euro solution to avoid the phase problem alltogther. But I know that does little good for anyone outside of CAD areas. Normally I'd feel bad for the lowland crew that regularly go years without snow and pull for a big boardwide monster storm, but after the longest snow drought in my life I'll admit I don't care what happens as long as I see snow lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Going back to the question of can their be an ice storm late in the season, here are a few more examples since 1970 in NC 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 34 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Going back to the question of can their be an ice storm late in the season, here are a few more examples since 1970 in NC That mid-Feb 2003 storm was nuts. I’ve never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life. It was a crust that stuck around for days and it made for the best sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We certainly can and do get ice in NC and even further south in late winter. However, the sweet spot for ice is earlier in the season. Can it happen? Yes. But prime time for ice starts slipping (joke there) away as we move through February and into March. At the same time, prime time for snow runs a bit later. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Going back to the question of can their be an ice storm late in the season, here are a few more examples since 1970 in NC Thanks! That March 6-7 2014 event was the one I was referring to. Areas south of Greensboro looked like a bomb went off in places, very bad tree damage. If I recall that event occurred overnight which mitigated the sun angle issues for ice accrual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 6Z GEFS was less suppressed with the mean low track and was warmer overall with much less snow throughout the SE and very few (only 3/10%) with wintry into the deep SE. Only one member has wintry in N FL 2/17-21 and that one only barely. That compares with one run that had 10/33% with N FL wintry and a good number with 3-5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Let’s see how 12Z runs go. Not starting off well with the ICON, which has more Pacific flow than recent runs through 144. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 2/13-20 averaged 0Z 2/9 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit to -2.7 (see image below) vs -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the PNA is lower while the NAO is higher. So, not good trends at 0Z on the GEFS vs yesterday. Hopefully that trend will reverse as there’s still time. Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952: 1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1) 2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7) 1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8) 1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1) 1970: -2.4 (-4.0) 1964: -2.4 (-3.4) 1987: -2.4 (-3.3) 1966: -2.2 (-3.5) 1952: -2.1 (-2.5) 1983: -2.0 (-2.7) 1977: -1.2 (-2.1) 2007: -1.2 (-1.9) 2005: -1.1 (-1.7) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: Let’s see how 12Z runs go. Not starting off well with the ICON, which has more Pacific flow than recent runs through 144. To me GFS looks much better through 168. Better stream interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: o me GFS looks much better through 168. Better stream interaction. I agree, this should be a good run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ends up squashed but I take squashed over amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Absolutely the 12Z GFS is clearly much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ssssssshhhhhhhhewwwww that was an inch from crashing this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Wintry precip way down in my area on 2/18 on 12Z GFS! These sharp changes from run to run show the level of uncertainty. Not all of this is snow as some is other wintry: 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The GFS looks much more like the EPS than the Euro OP. Sustained source of cold air aloft and multiple opportunities for wave development in the WAA region. Sometimes moisture can over perform in these setups far away from any kind of low pressure development. Knoxville scored big from WAA moisture last month even though they were thought to be on the dry side of the storm. Ideally we need to have the northern stream energy not interfere too much for this to work. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I can’t think of a more deserving person for digital love! Congratulations!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Fwiw that looked like a very strong overrunning signal for a few frames and I wouldn’t anticipate a global to sniff that out at 180 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wintry precip way down in my area on 2/18 on 12Z GFS! These sharp changes from run to run show the level of uncertainty. Not all of this is snow as some is other wintry: Living smack dab in the middle of SC. I am curious about how the gap between potential snow fall locations. This kind of snow event is especially frustrating to those of us in the middle of the gap. Anybody care to enlighten us forever snowless folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, jpbart said: Living smack dab in the middle of SC. I am curious about how the gap between potential snow fall locations. This kind of snow event is especially frustrating to those of us in the middle of the gap. Anybody care to enlighten us forever snowless folks? This is just digital out 9 days on an operational GFS. Here today gone tomorrow happens very often in these unusual locations. Haven’t seen the real thing in 6 years. Not that digital isn’t fun to see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is just digital out 9 days on an operational GFS. Here today gone tomorrow happens very often in these unusual locations. Haven’t seen the real thing in 6 years. Not that digital isn’t fun to see. 6 years seems like a long time without snow. Is that normal for your area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, jpbart said: Living smack dab in the middle of SC. I am curious about how the gap between potential snow fall locations. This kind of snow event is especially frustrating to those of us in the middle of the gap. Anybody care to enlighten us forever snowless folks? It is essentiallly two separate systems, one diving in from the northern stream and one sliding through the gulf. To fill the gap you need the two to phase. If it does it'll go boom, but miss the phase and the northern stream energy simply squashes our gulf wave, thus suppression. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Awwwww!! The GFS is finally starting to fall in line instead of going rogue 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Give me an overrunning event with a sustained cold source over ANY other setup at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 53 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: 6 years seems like a long time without snow. Is that normal for your area ? Going 6 years without even a T of wintry in this area is the longest since at the very least the 1940s and possibly even since the 1870s-80s! There’s missing snow data between the traces of Dec of 1944 and Nov of 1950. So, there’s a slight chance there was none then although that would still be just under 6 years. So, the current drought of 6 years, 1 month is for sure the longest since at the very least the 1880s. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Going 6 years without even a T of wintry in this area is the longest since at the very least the 1940s and possibly even since the 1870s-80s! There’s missing snow data between the traces of Dec of 1944 and Nov of 1950. So, there’s a slight chance there was none then although that would still be just under 6 years. So, the current drought of 6 years, 1 month is for sure the longest since at the very least the 1880s. I was living on Lady’s Island and it was a beautiful 5” snow that lasted for a while 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I was living on Lady’s Island and it was a beautiful 5” snow that lasted for a while You picked the perfect time to live on the coast as Jan of 2018 was the biggest SE coastal winter storm since Dec of 1989 for many! Here, there was ~0.5” of ZR (probably the most in one storm in nearly 100 years…it stopped just before widespread outages were about to start) and 2” of a combo of sleet and snow. A good portion of that 2” hung on in shady areas for 4 days, a very rare feat! There being sleet in it combined with it being several degrees below freezing during most of the storm and very cold to follow allowed it to stick around for so long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, GaWx said: You picked the perfect time to live on the coast as Jan of 2018 was the biggest SE coastal winter storm since Dec of 1989 for many! Here, there was ~0.5” of ZR (probably the most in one storm in nearly 100 years…it stopped just before widespread outages were about to start) and 2” of a combo of sleet and snow. A good portion of that 2” hung on in shady areas for 4 days, a very rare feat! There being sleet in it combined with it being several degrees below freezing during most of the storm and very cold to follow allowed it to stick around for so long. Yep, distinctly remember that one (though my son doesn't; he was 22mo). The next day we drove to Atlanta for wife's first brain surgery and observation... and it proceeded to snow again (up there) the night before we came home! I think we used up our quota for the decade... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 12Z GEFS mean was the coldest run for 2/17-18 in much of the SE in many runs due largely to an increase in the number of suppressed low tracks. As a result, much of the SE has increased qpf and mean wintry precip vs the 6Z (especially ATL-GSO south), and there’s a notable increase in the deep south. N FL is back up to two with wintry. So, at 12Z, the GFS, GEFS, and the not yet mentioned CMC have a similar setup on 2/18 with a suppressed Miller A/slider Gulf low. Also, the 12Z GEPS had a similar change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, gtg947h said: Yep, distinctly remember that one (though my son doesn't; he was 22mo). The next day we drove to Atlanta for wife's first brain surgery and observation... and it proceeded to snow again (up there) the night before we came home! I think we used up our quota for the decade... Yep I'm patiently waiting for Jan/Feb 2028 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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