JoshM Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:22 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Just wait until the next run, it will be 40 degree rain. GFS has been the only model showing winter storms this winter, for the most part. Just needs a few runs to adjust to reality for that range. Expand Hey, I'm like a dog. I go for the fake throw every time! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 10:57 PM, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Expand Folks in Raleigh would literally bury themselves under the cliff with a 4’ thick lead barrier above so they could never come back up and hope again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:09 PM, eyewall said: 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. Expand How common is ZR this late in the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:09 AM, StantonParkHoya said: How common is ZR this late in the season? Expand I have seen ice storms in March here. Not sure about Triangle but it's not THAT late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:55 AM, wncsnow said: I have seen ice storms in March here. Not sure about Triangle but it's not THAT late in the season Expand Feb 21st has a sun elevation equivalent to October. The sun is just strong, and lower elevations like the triangle have a tough time accruing ice by then unless it is anomalously cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:09 AM, StantonParkHoya said: Feb 21st has a sun elevation equivalent to October. The sun is just strong, and lower elevations like the triangle have a tough time accruing ice by then unless it is anomalously cold. Expand One of the worst ice storms I ever experienced occurred February 27, 2003. I had around 1" of ice accumulation from freezing rain at my location; some other parts of Rockingham County had even more. High temperatures were in the low to mid-60s in the days leading up to the storm, and the lowest temperature I recorded on the 27th was 28.4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:09 AM, StantonParkHoya said: How common is ZR this late in the season? Expand This one was bad in my neck of the woods. in-situ CAD storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 March 6-7 2014 was really bad near and south of Greensboro. I was on storm duty for the power company doing damage assessment and that area around 85 was torn up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 I have never in my life seen ice in Georgia after Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 2:14 AM, Blizzard22 said: I have never in my life seen ice in Georgia after Valentine's Day. Expand Even though you’ve never seen it, it has occurred a number of times in GA even in Mar including 3/2-3/1962 in a good portion of inland SOUTH GA (major storm), light icing to the coast on 3/2/1980 (El Nino) and a major one as late as 3/25/1971 in the Atlanta-Athens areas! There was also major icing even to the coast as late as 2/25/1914 (one of their worst ever)(another El Niño)! So, I wouldn’t at all discount the possibility of ice in GA with this next potential threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 There's been many late Feb and March Ice events. It's a non issue, at least in NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 I wish the JMA were a credible model at 192. Edit: 0Z ICON at 162 looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 GFS looks like it might be warmer and amped this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 If only the CMC at 222 were remotely credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 And…. Its gone.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 GFS is proof this doesn't work without the phase. If we can't just get rid of that northern piece alltogther, then we have to get at least a partial phase. Otherwise it hanging out overtop leads to that disjointed look, with one low in the gulf and another in the lakes/Ohio valley wrecking our thermals. As we already knew from the GEFS this was in the range of possible outcomes. Key will be seeing which scenario the ensembles start to converge around over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Once again the GEFS mean and GFS are on different planets. The 0Z GEFS is pretty impressive from NE GA through much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:06 AM, GaWx said: Once again the GEFS mean and GFS are on different planets. The 0Z GEFS is pretty impressive from NE GA through much of NC. Expand It's been many moons since I've seen a storm stick around from fantasy land this long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Euro op looks suppressed with the storm, but the setup would be favorable for a CAD event if precip trended further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/share/a8RRaMixT1S6MipA/?mibextid=WC7FNe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 7:26 AM, NorthHillsWx said: https://www.facebook.com/share/a8RRaMixT1S6MipA/?mibextid=WC7FNe Expand Looking at hour 240 dewpoints and 850s along with the control, it appears that had the Euro gone further that this would likely have resulted in a significant winter storm from a mix for especially NE GA into the W half of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 If I had to pick a preferred solution it'd definitely be the Euro. It removes the phase from the equation, let's that northern stream energy clear the playing field for a perfectly timed CAD high. A much simpler solution with less bust potential. Too bad there's still so long to go lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 All Ensembles still have the PD storm and in fact, improved over night even though the OPs were suppressed or missed the phase.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 The 6z GFS just shows rain with temps way to warm. The CMC and Euro look suppressed and the Euro Control shows a Mountain and Foothills Snowstom.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 10:37 AM, BornAgain13 said: The 6z GFS just shows rain with temps way to warm. The CMC and Euro look suppressed and the Euro Control shows a Mountain and Foothills Snowstom. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Expand You know what's new, everyday I wake up thinking okay this storm will be the one and it just doesn't work out, this was suppose to be one great winter for a lot of the southeast, just frustrating. Just about to give up, been so disappointed this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 6z GFS loses +PNA and is working on wc trough at end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:05 PM, StantonParkHoya said: 6z GFS loses +PNA and is working on wc trough at end. Expand Literally says “what pattern change?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:05 PM, StantonParkHoya said: 6z GFS loses +PNA and is working on wc trough at end. Expand Pulling out the golf clubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:23 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Literally says “what pattern change?” Expand it's too fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work. A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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