StantonParkHoya Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’d take that storm here. Would probably be enough to cover the pavement assuming sun angle wasn’t too much Never challenge the sun angle in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, DocATL said: The way the MJO is looking I’d be weary about anything wintery in late Feb. . Unless trolling. It's going to be in phase 8 albeit low low p8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Well, look at that. There’s finally an ops run showing some wintertime fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Unless trolling. It's going to be in phase 8 albeit low low p8 Low p8 is about as good a place as any. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: So are the ops ever going to show anything? Everyone living and dying by the ens until April hits? 18z GFS shows plenty of 60s for highs for the SE in that run. Does this work for you? It's still not worth relying on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Well, look at that. There’s finally an ops run showing some wintertime fun Just for the record, the 12Z GFS isn’t the first GFS showing significant wintry somewhere in the SE as most runs over the last few days have shown that. Not always in your BY but somewhere in the SE, sometimes deep south. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: Just for the record, the 12Z GFS isn’t the first GFS showing significant wintry somewhere in the SE as most runs over the last few days have shown that. Not always in your BY but somewhere in the SE, sometimes deep south. Indeed! My bad. I should’ve added imby 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Unless trolling. It's going to be in phase 8 albeit low low p8Lol not trolling. The euro loops back to 7 and then low amp phase 8. Don’t love that.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z EURO looked like it was setting up good for the possible PD storm. Cold air sinking south but not to far to suppress it. Hopefully once the Euro is in range it shows a widespread forum winter storm. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 37 minutes ago, DocATL said: Lol not trolling. The euro loops back to 7 and then low amp phase 8. Don’t love that. . The MJO hasn't and isn't the only driver this winter and the lead plots have been horrible this winter. There are MULTIPLE variables in the coming up pattern. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The MJO hasn't and isn't the only driver this winter and the lead plots have been horrible this winter. There are MULTIPLE variables in the coming up pattern. No kidding. Go back and look at some of those projections for late Jan with high amp in phase-6. Never happened as I thought it wouldn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: No kidding. Go back and look at some of those projections for late Jan with high amp in phase-6. Never happened as I thought it wouldn't Also last month the cold on the 19th 20th we were in phase 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, BooneWX said: LOL...I had this copied and ready to paste! Love seeing the purple over the SE... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This is the coldest the Euro Weeklies have been in the SE for the week of 2/19-26: dark blue is ~6-7 F BN. That’s pretty significant for an ensemble mean and it could even trend colder. But even if not, a week of 6-7 BN implies the coldest day would probably easily be in the teens or so BN. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 53 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The Climate Prediction is not perfect in its forecast, but it doesn’t put these outlooks out recklessly 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The Climate Prediction is not perfect in its forecast, but it doesn’t put these outlooks out recklessly Nope! At a minimum it’s a sign that they’re on board for recognizing the ripe potential in front of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is the coldest the Euro Weeklies have been in the SE for the week of 2/19-26: dark blue is ~6-7 F BN. That’s pretty significant for an ensemble mean and it could even trend colder. But even if not, a week of 6-7 BN implies the coldest day would probably easily be in the teens or so BN. How do the other weeks look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 34 minutes ago, wncsnow said: How do the other weeks look? All have BN temps, but none are this cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFS, ANOTHER run another Big Snowstorm for PD storm in NC/Southern VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Well this is the first time this year its actually stayed there more than one run….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFS has 1.5" of ZR at KCLT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 That northern stream piece diving down is what's wrapping the cold air in to the storm. Phased a little later this run, thus less coverage on the snow. Ideally it'd happen even a little quicker than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. I'd take anything at this point. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. Indeed 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I'd take anything at this point. I'd beg to differ... Atlanta 2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. Is it even possible to get that much ZR with a transient high? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol. Just wait until the next run, it will be 40 degree rain. GFS has been the only model showing winter storms this winter, for the most part. Just needs a few runs to adjust to reality for that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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