Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Overnight eps looks great in my opinion. GFS is out to lunch.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The cmc and it's ensembles look fine.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: You can tell it hasn't snowed in 2 years in here Seriously though, there's a good signal as we head into spring. Will we get what we want? I sure hope so because ya'll will be fighting each other to be the first one over the cliff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 hours ago, BooneWX said: One thing is clear. The PNA is going to cooperate. There’s probably no single teleconnection more important than that. I love how tall that ridge becomes too. It should at least give the northern energy more opportunities to dig and mingle with the pieces of energy coming out of the Baja area. I would like to see these diving in towards Texas and not Arizona/New Mexico. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This is normally an amazing winter weather pattern for NC, climo wise. It's the best pattern printed up by the models in many years from a snow and ice standpoint. Hopefully we don't screw it up. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It is also pretty amazing how well it's been forecasted by the weekly cfs for the past month or so. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z GEFS is significantly warmer than recent runs. Also, mean low track further north. Will that reduce mean snowfall in especially the deep south? Warmest GEFS run in 7 runs. Not what I wanted to see. Still easily far out enough to reverse on near future runs, of course. The 6Z GEFS went back colder with an increase in suppressed members and thus an increase again in deep S wintry members, especially from Macon SW to just N of Mobile. Those areas get hit pretty hard by 5 of 30 members. Also, 30% (9) of the 30 have significant and rather widespread IP/ZR in some of the SE. Two of these have a mix in far N FL. A good portion of the deep south wintry is IP/ZR, which doesn’t show up well in snow accumulations. Main period of wintry is within 2/17-21. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 6Z GEFS went back colder with an increase in suppressed members and thus an increase again in deep S wintry members, especially from Macon SW to just N of Mobile. Those areas get hit pretty hard by 5 of 30 members. Also, 30% (9) of the 30 have significant and rather widespread IP/ZR in some of the SE. Two of these have a mix in far N FL. A good portion of the deep south wintry is IP/ZR. I'm looking at the College of DuPage GEFS individual members and I'm not seeing the same results that you mention. Really not much showing up for the deep south at all. What source are you using for the GEFS member outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, weatherfide said: I'm looking at the College of DuPage GEFS individual members and I'm not seeing the same results that you mention. Really not much showing up for the deep south at all. What source are you using for the GEFS member outputs? I’ll need to delete this very shortly because it is a screenshot taking up way too much of my attachment space: note that much of S AL gets 0.75-1” of snowfall in the mean. *Image deleted* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, weatherfide said: I'm looking at the College of DuPage GEFS individual members and I'm not seeing the same results that you mention. Really not much showing up for the deep south at all. What source are you using for the GEFS member outputs? College of dupage doesn't have all the members. I think it's just one member skewing the mean. There's one that drops 2 feet of snow on Montgomery Alabama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, GaWx said: I’ll need to delete this very shortly because it is a screenshot taking up way too much of my attachment space: Interesting. I have pivotal access, too, and saw that image, but I'm not sure how it's deriving it. It might be all sleet and freezing rain in southern AL and SW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: College of dupage doesn't have all the members. I think it's just one member skewing the mean. There's one that drops 2 feet of snow on Montgomery Alabama. Where can you go to get all of them? WeatherBell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, weatherfide said: Where can you go to get all of them? WeatherBell? Yeah not really a great place that's free. Weather.us has limited individual member maps as well as plume graphs for a specified location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 These MJO forecasts are conducive 2/17+ for a cold SE with low amp 8 followed by going into the left side of the circle: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: These MJO forecasts are conducive 2/17+ for a cold SE with low amp 8 followed by going into the left side of the circle: Not gonna lie. I selfishly loved the Euro depiction: a sustained trip through the cold phases for one last crack at winter weather but then progressing firmly to the warm side of things as spring creeps in. As much as I love snow odds, I’ll always die on the hill that cold springs suck. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The 2/13-20 averaged 0Z 2/8 GEFS predicted AO dropped back some to -3.2 (see image below) vs -3.0 in the 2/7 run and -3.5 in the 2/6 run. Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952: 1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1) 2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7) 1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8) 1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1) 1970: -2.4 (-4.0) 1964: -2.4 (-3.4) 1987: -2.4 (-3.3) 1966: -2.2 (-3.5) 1952: -2.1 (-2.5) 1983: -2.0 (-2.7) 1977: -1.2 (-2.1) 2007: -1.2 (-1.9) 2005: -1.1 (-1.7) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD storm is a major snowstorm for NC and Southern VA FWIWSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 days out. Taken verbatim, this has the storm coming in sooner than previous runs Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z GFS has the first initial storm and then another burst right behind it. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z GFS - HR 246Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 For kicks and gigglesSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 verbatim run right? Nice for NC. Just outside the 10day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: For kicks and giggles Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I’ll shut up for years if I net almost 20 inches 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 KucheraSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If that phase could happen just a bit quicker/further west it would've been all snow from the beginning, instead of the rain to snow look. All unimportant details at this range though. Now I'd like to see a significant number of ensemble members start to solidify around a single threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I’d take that storm here. Would probably be enough to cover the pavement assuming sun angle wasn’t too much 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Very little support from the 12z GEFS. Will continue to watch. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Interesting how the ensembles have consistently much more suppressed than the OP. Thankfully the Euro is nearly in range and can hopefully give us a somewhat clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The way the MJO is looking I’d be weary about anything wintery in late Feb.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 There is a lot of support for a storm system in that time period it's just right now there's a mixed bag between wintry members, missed phases, and suppression. With the latter being the most favored at the moment. Given the likely need for at least partial phasing for this to work, unlikely to see stable solutions at this long of a lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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