NorthHillsWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: That and a whole lot more. Big changes all over the map by like hour 120. Run to run variability is nothing new though. Stick with the ensembles past 5 days. We also lost the NAO that run. Just a totally different map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 You can tell it hasn't snowed in 2 years in here Seriously though, there's a good signal as we head into spring. Will we get what we want? I sure hope so because ya'll will be fighting each other to be the first one over the cliff 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If anyone buys the OP GFS outside of 72 hrs, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Murphy I could sell ya 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: If anyone buys the OP GFS outside of 72 hrs, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Murphy I could sell ya It couldn't even agree with its own ensemble, bless its heart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Think of it -- An 18z gfs ops run will lead the way! Just doesn't have a ring to it does it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 GEFS Euro ens 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If anyone buys the OP GFS outside of 72 hrs, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Murphy I could sell ya You can bet some weather outlets go with it as well as some Mets. It's beyond anything I can figure. Even on the boards they're raving over it. Used to they'd at least say " it's just happy hour," or it's the GooFuS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I would suggest people look at the models verification scores recently also. The OP GFS has been horrible. Just putting that data out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Been seeing more and more talk about a major SSW on the way. This by no means is a unicorn but would greatly enhance blocking towards the first of March.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z gfs ens looks good. Remember the longer in time the smoother the composites are. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Been seeing more and more talk about a major SSW on the way. This by no means is a unicorn but would greatly enhance blocking towards the first of March. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I’m always torn on hoping for this or not hoping for this. Too much of a push encourages suppression but perhaps it could work out well as we move away from prime climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 One thing is clear. The PNA is going to cooperate. There’s probably no single teleconnection more important than that. I love how tall that ridge becomes too. It should at least give the northern energy more opportunities to dig and mingle with the pieces of energy coming out of the Baja area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: 18z gfs ens looks good. Remember the longer in time the smoother the composites are. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The 18Z GEFS is easily the best run yet for the SE as a whole. Not only NC does well, but Florence to CAE to Augusta to MCN to Columbus to, believe it or not, far S AL and the FL Panhandle has by far the most snow of any run. Before this run, the largest # of members with FL wintry was 5 (two runs). This run has a whopping 10 in N FL (1/3)! There’s a near 1” mean in the FL Panhandle! This suggests how clueless is the 18Z GFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 FWIW, the 12Z EURO Control showed suppressed PD solution with a Snowstorm for NW SC and SW NCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: I would suggest people look at the models verification scores recently also. The OP GFS has been horrible. Just putting that data out there. The GFS is awful. When you are behind the Canadian it's a real shame. Idk why our supercomputers can't come up with better data/modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 So are the ops ever going to show anything? Everyone living and dying by the ens until April hits? 18z GFS shows plenty of 60s for highs for the SE in that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 and 12z GFS ops were not too far off but the storm has been in the southeast on the Euro and Canadian ops as well. Details far from clear yet but that along with the synoptic outlook is basically the epitome of what this forum is about. My guess is that something more definitive will appear in the coming days regarding the 18-20th. Let’s see, it may ot may not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: 6 and 12z GFS ops were not too far off but the storm has been in the southeast on the Euro and Canadian ops as well. Details far from clear yet but that along with the synoptic outlook is basically the epitome of what this forum is about. My guess is that something more definitive will appear in the coming days regarding the 18-20th. Let’s see, it may ot may not work out. Can we acknowledge that just a few days ago we were talking 13th-15th and now we’re to 18-20th? Can kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I never thought VDay was viable here in northern N or other parts of the sub forum-too warm. I’m interested in the following storm and beyond as the pac ridge builds back with a good west based -NAO. If nothing by March 3rd, I will start to really have doubts. Hopefully this next one will give at least a taste even if snow geese are not fed in parts/ most of sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Is it my imagination or is the 0Z GFS really looking like dog poop again? Edit: Actually dog poop looks way better! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If I'm wrong, I will admit it. We are tracking fringe fantasy storms 10-14 days out. We are desperate and I get it. But, it has always turned into rain the last 2 years. We need really cold air to make it down to these parts and I just don't see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: The GFS is awful. When you are behind the Canadian it's a real shame. Idk why our supercomputers can't come up with better data/modeling. Seems like with each "update" the model just gets worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Seems like with each "update" the model just gets worse. OTOH, the 0Z CMC is 25-30 F colder just about everywhere from the SE to the Midwest. What the? The CMC at 240 looks to me like it is set up for a big winter storm to affect at least part of the SE soon after! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS is world's different than ICON and GDPS. It looks like late March for most of the country. No cold, no ridge out west. If it's right, winter was indeed over last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The 0Z GEFS is significantly warmer than recent runs. Also, mean low track further north. Will that reduce mean snowfall in especially the deep south? Warmest GEFS run in 7 runs. Not what I wanted to see. Still easily far out enough to reverse on near future runs, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 0Z GEFS is significantly warmer than recent runs. Also, mean low track further north. Will that reduce mean snowfall in especially the deep south? I want snow too but I hate to say I was right. But, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 28 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I want snow too but I hate to say I was right. But, we shall see. Yeah, don’t count your chickens too early. My suspicion that the warmer with further N mean low track would mean less SN in the deep S turned out to be confirmed. Way less there and even less up in ATL-AHN corridor. Whereas N FL had a whopping 10 with wintry on the 18Z, the 0Z has only one! But NE GA to NW SC (to CAE) to the NW 3/5 of NC had an increase due to less suppression. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD storm is back on the 6z GFS for the Mountains/Foothills/N NC/S VA. Big snow taken verbatim. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Still liking the look over next 7-14 days. I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD. Just need a little suppression and we are in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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