wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You just did on the 06z! WTF are you smoking? It's easy to get under your skin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That pesky low in the lakes look we've seen a million times in the last two years. Need that northern stream energy to either dig a lot more SW and phase with our system, or just not be there at all and allow the highs to bridge over the top and give us more of a CAD look out front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 You cannot sugarcoat the lack of ensemble support for snow with the PD storm. There’s definitely a storm signal but I still believe this is the mid Atlantic’s storm. SW Virginia in the game too. We’ll see but as others have said, lots of energy flying around. I’m skeptical still given recency bias and lack of ensemble support Mountains/foothills/virginia I believe are firmly in the game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's easy to get under your skin There's just been a ton of shit posting. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: There's just been a ton of shit posting. I understand but come on man I thought we were beyond that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: That pesky low in the lakes look we've seen a million times in the last two years. Need that northern stream energy to either dig a lot more SW and phase with our system, or just not be there at all and allow the highs to bridge over the top and give us more of a CAD look out front. We won in Chapel Hill last night for the second time in 62 years. At this point, I believe anything is possible. 2 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This is a good look at day 10 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Things look fine. Get the cold in here and something will hit. Too much energy flying around. The cold air is coming. The awesome setup at 240 on both the 12Z Euro and 12Z/0Z CMC would imply lots of potential for the SE for 2/18-19. Those are both screaming widespread major winter storm potential with the classic split flow working in tandem with high latitude blocking. Fwiw of course since this is out 240 on operationals and thus will keep changing for awhile as no operational gets set on a solution that far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Comparing the Day 10 Euro with the Day 10 GFS , both have the gulf moisture but the Euro is much colder. Will be interesting to see what the Euro shows getting closerSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I understand but come on man I thought we were beyond that. I can't be certain for everyone's take, but from my view, it gets old having to go through everyone's shit posts to read the good ones from folks like GAWX, etc. I love snow too, but don't see the purpose in spewing negativity all over this board when it doesn't come to fruition.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 11 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The major theme from the ensembles is suppression for the storm around the 19th. Seems to be plenty of cold air though, which would yield a very good result with a few ticks more amped, as the GFS lends credence to. Now is the time for patience, can't control what happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The new (2/7) Euro Weeklies 10 mb stratospheric 60N wind run’s mean hangs around -5 for a week and then never rises back above +5 (through Mar 23)! Most of the wind reversal dates (major SSW) are within Feb 15-17 and the members imply a good chance for a dip to sub -10. This is even more support favoring a cold SE US along with more winter storm opportunities well into March. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: When you say cold in March you mean relative to normal right ? In March it could be below normal but still not very cold. I mean relative to normal/solid BN temperatures. In the first half of March, especially, solid BN can still be quite cold and last awhile in much of the SE US. See history for examples. That doesn’t at all mean anywhere near record lows for DJF, of course, but you don’t need that to be very cold. I don’t know what your definition of “very cold” is though and don’t know where you’re located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: I mean relative to normal/solid BN temperatures. In the first half of March, especially, solid BN can still be quite cold and last awhile in much of the SE US. See history for examples. That doesn’t at all mean anywhere near record lows for DJF, of course, but you don’t need that to be very cold. I don’t know what your definition of “very cold” is and where you’re located. I am in Georgia. In Atlanta, for instance, average highs are in the mid 60s the second week of March so I guess mid 50s would be considered solidly BN. Hopefully we can have temps 30-40 BN so we can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: I am in Georgia. In Atlanta, for instance, average highs are in the mid 60s the second week of March so I guess mid 50s would be considered solidly BN. Hopefully we can have temps 30-40 BN so we can get some snow. In ATL, record low maximums are in the 30s and 20s through March 18th. Plus you can get significant snow with a high in the 40s. You don’t need mean temps 30-40 BN even in mid March to get a snowstorm. For example, KATL’s heaviest snowfall since 1940, 3/24/1983, was 7.9” and the mean temp was only 18 BN. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new (2/7) Euro Weeklies 10 mb stratospheric 60N wind run’s mean hangs around -5 for a week and then never rises back above +5 (through Mar 23)! Most of the wind reversal dates (major SSW) are within Feb 15-17 and the members imply a good chance for a dip to sub -10. This is even more support favoring a cold SE US along with more winter storm opportunities well into March. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 34 minutes ago, GaWx said: In ATL, record low maximums are in the 30s and 20s through March 18th. Plus you can get significant snow with a high in the 40s. You don’t need mean temps 30-40 BN even in mid March to get a snowstorm. For example, KATL’s heaviest snowfall since 1940, 3/24/1983, was 7.9” and the mean temp was only 18 BN. I really want to see the snowfall mean start to improve in GA, SC and NC on the EPS. We are entering the target zone and outside of a few big hitters, there aren't many members with snowfall outside of the mountains. The 12Z 2/7/2024 CMCE and GEFS were even worse than the EPS. II r 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I'm no GaWx but I did some research on late season snowstorms during El Nino's since 2005. There were a few other small events but these are the main ones. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxslug Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: There's just been a ton of shit posting. Y’know…I literally only post about once per year, usually during winter because I like reading the very informative posts. It’s become rather discouraging to see not only childish posting but also the absolute banality of those whining because it’s another winter with little/no snow. Either way, it’s weather and worth tracking. We don’t always get what we want. So what? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I cannot stress this enough, if you are rooting for a cold, dreary March, you should seek help. Spring should not be wasted on those suffering from snow withdrawals. 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If we can pull out a 2 week stretch like February 2015 I think a lot of us 40 north folks would be happy. That winter was pretty boring until late and was an El Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: If we can pull out a 2 week stretch like February 2015 I think a lot of us 40 north folks would be happy. That winter was pretty boring until late and was an El Nino. More maps from that period 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I believe someone in this forum will score with this upcoming period. Whether it's the mountains/foothills, here in Southern VA, or GA/SC... somebody gonna get it! I believe!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 25 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If we can pull out a 2 week stretch like February 2015 I think a lot of us 40 north folks would be happy. That winter was pretty boring until late and was an El Nino. Still one of my favorite winter weather periods in the last 10 years. Heavy Sleet/ZR storm on the 16th. Then back to back snows less than 10 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 36 minutes ago, wxslug said: Y’know…I literally only post about once per year, usually during winter because I like reading the very informative posts. It’s become rather discouraging to see not only childish posting but also the absolute banality of those whining because it’s another winter with little/no snow. Either way, it’s weather and worth tracking. We don’t always get what we want. So what? This is the last “childish post” I’ll make but I’ll explain what’s happened and why the forum has devolved: 1) Obvious- it hasn’t snowed in 2+ years 2) Since January 20, there hasn’t been a single thing to track, not even cold or a rainstorm. It’s been completely dead to the point the only thing worth talking about has been weeklies and teleconnections (outside range of ops and ensembles) 3) When/if a threat materializes, I expect this board to move back to a sense on normalcy. Talking 25+ day pattern changes is best left to a select few posters and other than their insight, yea there just hasn’t been a dang thing to talk about. Now I’ll retreat back to my hole in the sanitarium, it’s not going to snow, I’ve accepted it, onto severe season, see yall next year! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z GFS OP has dropped the idea of cold air in mid February. 40 to 50 degree rain on this run, board wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Happy hour lately is driving me to drink. What a catch 22! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This GFS run is an utter disaster for everyone on the east coast, and in fact turns the PD storm into a severe threat with 70’s here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If anyone’s wondering how we fail to this level with the PD storm, thank that strong GL low preceding the system that nukes thermals all the way to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If anyone’s wondering how we fail to this level with the PD storm, thank that strong GL low preceding the system that nukes thermals all the way to Maine That and a whole lot more. Big changes all over the map by like hour 120. Run to run variability is nothing new though. Stick with the ensembles past 5 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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