Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I thought this was the mid range thread instead a thread to shit all over it? Some of yall in here are unbelievable and mods feel free to move if needed. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z GFS is a huge snowstorm for VA around PD. Upper air pattern supports it.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Yeah big snow for VA. There are signs folks could see some snow outside the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This thread is funny. Lack of snow really brings out the best in people. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If the models show a good look but you just assume everything will be bad 1.)you are most likely right BUT 2.) why are you here? We all commiserate when things don't work out for us (and they haven't been working out) but if "winter is over" then this forum is of no use to you. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 There looks to be potential in the prime of this pattern change. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 06z GEFS looks workable. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 00z EPS looks fine.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Major Winter Storm again from the 06 GFS for PD for Northern NC/VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Major Winter Storm again from the 06 GFS for PD for Northern NC/VA Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Yeah I just posted it. 18 inches for Asheville and several inches for the piedmont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If you are basing your predictions on a each model run of the OP GFS, then you might as well just look at your apple weather app. The overall pattern over the next two weeks is as good as we can hope for. At least 2-4 storms rolling through the south and a chance to hook up with some cold air. The EPS looks the best it has looked this morning. GEFS coming on board as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 In fairness we should wait for Coach McGuirk's counter presentation data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: There looks to be potential in the prime of this pattern change. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk That was admittedly a fun run. One of those classic storms where if it’s coming down hard, it’s paste, if it’s not, it’s drizzle. The pattern change seems to be firm at this point but I do wish we could just see a better signal for an anchoring high over the top. That run had a moderately strong high over the high plains but that’s not typically going to cut it. Of course, too early to parse details about the threat at this point but at least the signal has been there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 31 minutes ago, CaryWx said: In fairness we should wait for Coach McGuirk's counter presentation data. #facts. Its exhausting..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 -0Z EPS much wetter than prior runs and thus the most wintry precip of any EPS in the SE -0Z and 6Z GEFS snowier overall SE largely due to more qpf -Things seem to be falling into place, which makes sense based on how consistent the big picture has been. MJO progs for mid to late month (weak left side possibly going into COD) continue to be supportive among other factors. But regardless, nothing is even close to being certain. -As a bonus the fun may very well carry well into March based on the weakening SPV 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The -AO isn’t quite as strong as it was on yesterday’s GEFS, when it averaged -3.5 for 2/13-20. Today the period averages near -3.0. The chance for a sub -4 daily isn’t as high. Hopefully it won’t trend less negative in the coming days. A -3.0 would still make it the 3rd most negative for the period during El Niño. Also, the PNA prog for the period has risen from yesterday’s +0.5 to today’s +0.8. Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952: 1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1) 2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7) 1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8) 1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1) 1970: -2.4 (-4.0) 1964: -2.4 (-3.4) 1987: -2.4 (-3.3) 1966: -2.2 (-3.5) 1952: -2.1 (-2.5) 1983: -2.0 (-2.7) 1977: -1.2 (-2.1) 2007: -1.2 (-1.9) 2005: -1.1 (-1.7) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 39 minutes ago, GaWx said: The -AO isn’t quite as strong as it was on yesterday’s GEFS, when it averaged -3.5 for 2/13-20. Today the period averages near -3.0. The chance for a sub -4 daily isn’t as high. Hopefully it won’t trend less negative in the coming days. A -3.0 would still make it the 3rd most negative for the period during El Niño. Also, the PNA prog for the period has risen from yesterday’s +0.5 to today’s +0.8. Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952: 1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1) 2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7) 1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8) 1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1) 1970: -2.4 (-4.0) 1964: -2.4 (-3.4) 1987: -2.4 (-3.3) 1966: -2.2 (-3.5) 1952: -2.1 (-2.5) 1983: -2.0 (-2.7) 1977: -1.2 (-2.1) 2007: -1.2 (-1.9) 2005: -1.1 (-1.7) Keep that PNA rising and I'm not as stressed about the AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Latest 12 run averaged CFS ensemble looks quite nippy for early March based on 500 mb heights and actually has lower heights than the 3 weeks preceding it! For example, this shows 554 dm for RDU. That’s actually 6 dm lower than the normal for January! So, the implication based on this forecast is that the first week of March would quite possibly end up BN for January! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: That was admittedly a fun run. One of those classic storms where if it’s coming down hard, it’s paste, if it’s not, it’s drizzle. The pattern change seems to be firm at this point but I do wish we could just see a better signal for an anchoring high over the top. That run had a moderately strong high over the high plains but that’s not typically going to cut it. Of course, too early to parse details about the threat at this point but at least the signal has been there for days. GAWX has been posting some exceptional stuff this winter. I'd follow him and the analogs especially this year considering we are in a NINO and it's facts that NIÑOS are back loaded. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12z GFS still has the PD storm although a little warmer this time with a cold rain... still big snows for SW VA and Northern VA this run. Good news is a storm is looking likely at this time period. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Darn you SE Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Still a long ways out but just going by the 12z GFS , the track of the Low looks good best I can tell but just not enough cold air for a forum wide winter storm. I know that's been the theme.. hopefully this storm will trend colder. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Ouch That potential storm is well out in fantasy land. I'm waiting on the GEFS for some ideas, though the last few runs of the GEFS haven't had many members with much snowfall in the southeast. Usually the means have been skewed by one or two big snow outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, weatherfide said: That potential storm is well out in fantasy land. I'm waiting on the GEFS for some ideas, though the last few runs of the GEFS haven't had many members with much snowfall in the southeast. Usually the means have been skewed by one or two big snow outputs. We can't even win in fantasy land 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 OZ Euro showed much more favorable conditions during this time frame. Waiting to see what it does at 12z. CMC was more favorable too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Out to 240 hours or so on the GEFS. No individual members with snow in the southeast. I'll check in again tomorrow, but this is not encouraging if you want snow in the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GFS has been showing this fantasy land snow way South for several runs now. Shows the potential for the upcoming period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 42 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We can't even win in fantasy land You just did on the 06z! WTF are you smoking? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Things look fine. Get the cold in here and something will hit. Too much energy flying around. The cold air is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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