BooneWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yep. Brad has been sounding the horn for some time now. He brings up an important point about teleconnections too. They matter less now that they used to, considering our climate is night and day different from the time we began studying their effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Jack Campbell there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. Thats why it's so warm north of the storm track. Michael Berger no signs of that at all, all the cold air in on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range. When you see crazy maps with departure from average temperatures for late February, you must remember what average is. 10-15° below average in the Feb 15-25 timeframe still puts us in the 40s. It's not cold enough for winter weather. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc Quotes from Brad P on his post That analogy certainly makes sense and I do not get paid to forecast the weather. However, looking beyond the 7-10 range looks like there is plenty of arctic air in Canada, northern tier, and this side of the hemisphere. Guess I am a little puzzled what he is looking at to completely call off winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Does anyone have upper level data for February 2015? This was an El Nino year which could be a good analog for what a good outcome might look like.Started out warm and ended very cold. One big storm for the northern half of NC and a couple smaller storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The storm taking a perfect track for Virginia/MA on the 13th and being nothing but rain is also a terrible sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: That analogy certainly makes sense and I do not get paid to forecast the weather. However, looking beyond the 7-10 range looks like there is plenty of arctic air in Canada, northern tier, and this side of the hemisphere. Guess I am a little puzzled what he is looking at to completely call off winter? "Plenty of artic air in Canada" is a BIG reach, most of the cold during that time frame shifts over towards Asia, there is some cold, but really not all that much, especially what we need for the pattern to really be effective imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The image below of today’s GEFS AO prog implies the likelihood of a few days of sub -4 within 2/13-20 along with a 25% chance for a lowest of sub -5 and 10% chance of lowest of sub -6! Whereas yesterday’s had ~-3.1 for mid-month, today’s has ~-3.5 for 2/13-20! (The PNA forecast is +0.5.) How would a -3.5 AO compare to Nino history back to 1952? Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952: 1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1) 2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7) 1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8) 1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1) 1970: -2.4 (-4.0) 1964: -2.4 (-3.4) 1987: -2.4 (-3.3) 1966: -2.2 (-3.5) 1952: -2.1 (-2.5) 1983: -2.0 (-2.7) 1977: -1.2 (-2.1) 2007: -1.2 (-1.9) 2005: -1.1 (-1.7) So, the prog suggests 2024 has a chance to come in as easily the 3rd most -AO of the 25 Ninos for 2/13-20 and near the average of the lowest 4. It is no wonder why we’ve seen a good number of GEFS members/GFS runs with winter storms so far south. ATL; RDU for strongest 4 -AO: 2/13-20 temps/SN 1969: -13/1.2”; -9/0.8” 2010: -11/T (3.6” on 2/12); -8/1.0” 1978: -6/0.3”; -8/T (5.6” 2/21-2) 1958: -23/2.7”; -21/3.0” AVG: -13/1.4”; -12/1.2” So, these 4 averaged very cold and snowier than avg. for 2/13-20. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/3/2024 at 9:20 AM, NorthHillsWx said: The split flow looks great, blocking looks great, but you know what’s still the problem we’re going to have? There’s no real cold air. Even that fantasy storm last night was a product of rates and not there being a good arctic high in the source region. Until proven otherwise, it looks to me like a mid Atlantic setup where there might be just enough cold air north of us. We might get some storms but I’m doubtful the cold will be enough. We’re reaching the part of our climo where we need anomalous cold for frozen and that isn’t showing up I still stand by this. I get the pattern is right, but where is the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: That analogy certainly makes sense and I do not get paid to forecast the weather. However, looking beyond the 7-10 range looks like there is plenty of arctic air in Canada, northern tier, and this side of the hemisphere. Guess I am a little puzzled what he is looking at to completely call off winter? Sir, beyond 10 days is spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Sir, beyond 10 days is spring Wished you were right. Has been no time fittin for golf on the weekends since November but it looks like plenty of cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So, when are the Ops going to start showing this great pattern? We are starting to get in better range and its looking like more of the same. Get cool for a few days, warm up, rain, get cool for a few days, warm up, rain. This is not exactly arctic air day 9. So are we thinking February 20 or later? April? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 12Z GEFS has a whopping 5 out of 30 (17%) members with wintry precip within 2/18-22 in N FL! That many members doing that is very rarely seen 12-16 days out. It is the most of any run yet this winter beating out 4 of 30 on a recent run. Two of those have a wintry mix that goes just S of @pcbjr! The strongly suppressed track usually required for this is made less improbable by a very strong -AO/extreme high latitude blocking that is being forecasted. I know that @NorthHillsWxasked where the cold air would come from. When you have forecasted for mid-month extreme blocking in the Arctic (-AO), strong blocking near AK (-EPO), moderate blocking in the N Atlantic (-NAO), a moderate +PNA (W coast blocking) to drive cold air into the SE, the most favorable MJO for cold there is (weak left sided possibly going into the COD), a strong subtropical jet (favors extra cooling from upstairs if there’s precip), and with it then still only mid Feb, you’ve got about the most loaded setup to produce cold enough air for significant wintry precip even deep into the SE as exhibited quite well by many GEFS/GFS runs. Why else would just about every GEFS run in recent days be showing members with wintry precip down into N FL? Keep in mind that we don’t need cold anomalies in Canada or even the N Plains/upper MW to get cold in the SE. Will the SE get a winter storm or maybe even two? I don’t know as I don’t have a crystal ball. But I can’t ask for a better big picture pattern consistently showing up every day to give us the chance. The big picture remains about as favorable as it ever gets that far out, especially for the deep SE. I said I was going to have fun following this and I’m having a blast. There could easily not be another period of potential like this for years to come for the deep SE at least. When other subforums are worried about “suppression”, I’m of course loving it. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I know... highly unlikely... but the 12z EURO Control was a moderate Snow event next week for VA/NCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: So, when are the Ops going to start showing this great pattern? We are starting to get in better range and its looking like more of the same. Get cool for a few days, warm up, rain, get cool for a few days, warm up, rain. This is not exactly arctic air day 9. So are we thinking February 20 or later? April? Ensembles much colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The new Euro Weeklies are significantly colder along with more widespread cold vs recent runs for the period Feb 19-Mar 18. There’s now a solid signal for cold for much of the E US thanks to strong blocking at high latitudes as well as moderate blocking along the W coast. This more intense cold lasting well into March is likely being aided by the most bullish run yet for a mid-month major SSW, which on its own increases the chance for a cold E US starting 1-3 weeks later and which often lasts for several weeks after it starts. Along with this forecasted cold, the Weeklies maintain an El Niño induced subtropical feed of moisture in the GOM and up along the SE coast. All of the SE is NN to wetter than normal. So, the SE may very well get more winter storm opportunities into mid March! This winter appears to be a long way from ending. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We're looking right at Mid-February on the models now and just need to come to an agreement on whether it'll be 40° and rainy or.... 50° and rainy. Really exciting developments. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18 minutes ago, westmc9th said: We're looking right at Mid-February on the models now and just need to come to an agreement on whether it'll be 40° and rainy or.... 50° and rainy. Really exciting developments. For Asheville? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Happy hour wasn’t happy at all!!! Rain or suppression, take your pick! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Cold and dry or warm and wet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Happy hour wasn’t happy at all!!! Rain or suppression, take your pick! Hey! I introduced myself in the sanitarium. Recent transplant and fellow weather lover. The pattern looks great! What if the models had blizzard after blizzard hitting NC at 300+ hours? You and I know damn well what would happen, and if we did get winter weather it is more likely than not to be over forecasted and then give us a dusting followed by sleet and frzrain. It doesn't look like a torch (and don't go all in that a torch won't happen) but it isn't time to throw in the towel. I have been back and forth from NC for 20 yrs and I have seen more winter weather here than NOVA (Minus the BIG ONE) and before climate change lol. My dates might be a little scratchy but Im not looking that shit up. 1999?- 20 in in of cold smoke in f'ing Central NC!?! 2002?- Snow & Ice (Severe- no power for a week) maybe 4 in. snow in durham and followed by 1" plus frz rain, 2002ish- several inches of sleet that was forecasted to be rain lasted for like 12 hours. 2005?- 1 in snow snarls traffic for 8+ hrs and kids slept at school ( I had to pee in public on Falls of Nuese the with car running). 2009? -SNOW ON XMAS- it was Xmas night I believe and it was like 6 or more inches if I remember. 2014-9+ inches *I was in Greensboro and built a snowman. 2016 was at one point forecasted to drop 18 in. in Greensboro at a 36 hr lead time and we got less than a half in. of snow. Yes we got sleet and frz. rain and it was still a big storm but not what we were wetting our pants about while we saw the DC burbs in up to 36 in. of snow. 2018- southern slider that pissed me off bad bc I saw a flurry and NC racked up plowable snow. I am sure you might have experienced many of those storms and I hope that it gives you hope that the big one is coming! Cheers! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18Z OP GFS looked nice to me. Plenty of chances to reel something in. EPS and ensembles still have noise, too. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 hours ago, GaWx said: The new Euro Weeklies are significantly colder along with more widespread cold vs recent runs for the period Feb 19-Mar 18. There’s now a solid signal for cold for much of the E US thanks to strong blocking at high latitudes as well as moderate blocking along the W coast. This more intense cold lasting well into March is likely being aided by the most bullish run yet for a mid-month major SSW, which on its own increases the chance for a cold E US starting 1-3 weeks later and which often lasts for several weeks after it starts. Along with this forecasted cold, the Weeklies maintain an El Niño induced subtropical feed of moisture in the GOM and up along the SE coast. All of the SE is NN to wetter than normal. So, the SE may very well get more winter storm opportunities into mid March! This winter appears to be a long way from ending. Don't worry it will change next run, it always does. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Here's a good research/study regarding February and March of 1960 in the Southern Appalachian Region. Click Visit Site for Article in PDF Format. https://images.app.goo.gl/yVE87S6UhpbiYWUe6 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Cold and dry or warm and wet.This year has been cold and raining. Where you been?Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Weeklies look great. This is the 25th which is right around the corner.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Weeklies into March.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Eps looks great today. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 We are grasping at straws. It's over, folks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If I had a dollar every time the Weeklies were wrong I could have a great time at the local strip club 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If I had a dollar every time the Weeklies were wrong I could have a great time at the local strip club They have been decent this season as well. Sure they didn't get the cold right for this time period but they have been pretty good this season. As you should know cold doesn't always equat to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: We are grasping at straws. It's over, folks. Then go to the sanitarium thread. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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