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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Runs are really starting to pick up on the displacement.  Somebody may want to get their seatbelts clipped in the next couple weeks

I’ve been hoping my negativity would will it into existence. That 1055 high on the 0z GFS would definitely work, lol. 1037 from 6z is weak sauce :lol:

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 The potential for significant SE wintry precip 2/15-20, especially 2/17-20, is not at all going away and is if anything increasing as we get closer while the big picture doesn’t change. At least 75% of the last 3 GEFS runs ending with the 6Z have SE US wintry precip outside of the mountains somewhere within Feb 15-20. About 50% of the 6Z members have it including outside of NC with 4 of the 30 even as far south as N FL.

 It is hard to look better than this 10-15 days out. The big picture is still very much intact with a hard to beat combo of a very strong -AO, moderate +PNA, -EPO, neutral to -NAO, strong subtropical jet/split flow, and the tendency for 50/50 lows (which tend to hold cold in longer). Moderate+ El Niño climo is quite supportive, too. It never hurts to have analogs on your side.

 I hope to post more about the very strong -AO later as far as El Niño analogs are concerned.

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 All models are predicting the AO to drop to -3 or lower at mid month with the likelihood of some days dipping to near -4 being implied. The chance of a sub -2 AO averaged out during 2/15-29 is increasing and is close to becoming likely. (There’s a good chance for a +0.3+ PNA averaged out during the same period.)
 

 Here are the strongest -AOs averaged out during 2/15-28(9) for El Niño:

2010: -4.1 (PNA +0.2)

1969: -3.4 (PNA -0.1)

1958: -2.5 (PNA +0.9)

2005: -2.4 (PNA +0.4)

1952: -2.0 (PNA +0.4)

1977: -1.8 (PNA +1.0)

1987: -1.7 (PNA +0.3)

1970: -1.6 (PNA +0.7)

 

AO lowest daily 2/15-28(9) -3 or lower during El Nino:

1952, 58, 64, 66, 69, 78, 2005, 10

 

AO lowest daily 2/15-28(9) -4 or lower during El Nino:

1958, 69, 2005, 10

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12Z GEFS SE US outside of mountains:

-20% have wintry precip 2/13-14 mainly GA/SC with all including N GA and most including SC

-70% have it 2/16-21 (mainly 2/17-21)

-50% have it 2/13-21 that include states outside of NC

-~40% have IP or ZR

-So, the strong signal for that far out continues with a little bit more of a signal than before for 2/13-14, too.


 The 12Z EPS like for earlier runs has much less snow than the 12Z GEFS and GEPS.

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I can't buy in at 300 hours.

 

That's all we've got ATM.

It's kinda like at the end of the night when you know the bar is going to close soon and the only girl left in the place is one who looks pretty good sitting way down at the other end of the bar.  

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3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

That's all we've got ATM.

It's kinda like at the end of the night when you know the bar is going to close soon and the only girl left in the place is one who looks pretty good sitting way down at the other end of the bar.  

On this run it is a complete miss.

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18Z GEFS (outside of mountains): active again

-Mean wintry amount is impressive, especially in NE GA, upstate SC, and NW 3/5 of NC with 1-2.5” of snow, snowiest run yet for those areas I think

-Three (10%) really big dog snows NC, with two of those extending back into N GA

-70% of members have wintry precip

-50% have wintry not limited to NC

-10% (3) in N FL with one as far S as north-central!

-30% have IP or ZR included

-some early snow 2/12-14, mainly in NC; most activity 2/17-21

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.

It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance.

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8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance.

We have decent blocking in Greenland coming up.  -nao 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Jack Campbell there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. Thats why it's so warm north of the storm track.
 

Michael Berger no signs of that at all, all the cold air in on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range.

When you see crazy maps with departure from average temperatures for late February, you must remember what average is. 10-15° below average in the Feb 15-25 timeframe still puts us in the 40s. It's not cold enough for winter weather. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc
 

Quotes from Brad P on his post

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