NorthHillsWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Runs are really starting to pick up on the displacement. Somebody may want to get their seatbelts clipped in the next couple weeks I’ve been hoping my negativity would will it into existence. That 1055 high on the 0z GFS would definitely work, lol. 1037 from 6z is weak sauce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This winter really blows. Can't believe we are going to be shut out again. It's never going to snow in the SE again. There, that should help. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS shows one last gasp around the 20th, then rolling forward looks like west coast trough, big east coast ridge. I think that’ll do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It ain't gonna happen, but that's about as perfect placement as you can get for snow for the LP/HP. It's only hour 384 on the GFS, what could go wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The potential for significant SE wintry precip 2/15-20, especially 2/17-20, is not at all going away and is if anything increasing as we get closer while the big picture doesn’t change. At least 75% of the last 3 GEFS runs ending with the 6Z have SE US wintry precip outside of the mountains somewhere within Feb 15-20. About 50% of the 6Z members have it including outside of NC with 4 of the 30 even as far south as N FL. It is hard to look better than this 10-15 days out. The big picture is still very much intact with a hard to beat combo of a very strong -AO, moderate +PNA, -EPO, neutral to -NAO, strong subtropical jet/split flow, and the tendency for 50/50 lows (which tend to hold cold in longer). Moderate+ El Niño climo is quite supportive, too. It never hurts to have analogs on your side. I hope to post more about the very strong -AO later as far as El Niño analogs are concerned. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 All models are predicting the AO to drop to -3 or lower at mid month with the likelihood of some days dipping to near -4 being implied. The chance of a sub -2 AO averaged out during 2/15-29 is increasing and is close to becoming likely. (There’s a good chance for a +0.3+ PNA averaged out during the same period.) Here are the strongest -AOs averaged out during 2/15-28(9) for El Niño: 2010: -4.1 (PNA +0.2) 1969: -3.4 (PNA -0.1) 1958: -2.5 (PNA +0.9) 2005: -2.4 (PNA +0.4) 1952: -2.0 (PNA +0.4) 1977: -1.8 (PNA +1.0) 1987: -1.7 (PNA +0.3) 1970: -1.6 (PNA +0.7) AO lowest daily 2/15-28(9) -3 or lower during El Nino: 1952, 58, 64, 66, 69, 78, 2005, 10 AO lowest daily 2/15-28(9) -4 or lower during El Nino: 1958, 69, 2005, 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period. EPS on board with noise around that time as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: 12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period. EPS on board with noise around that time as well. I can't buy in at 300 hours. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: I can't buy in at 300 hours. Give it a few days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12Z GEFS SE US outside of mountains: -20% have wintry precip 2/13-14 mainly GA/SC with all including N GA and most including SC -70% have it 2/16-21 (mainly 2/17-21) -50% have it 2/13-21 that include states outside of NC -~40% have IP or ZR -So, the strong signal for that far out continues with a little bit more of a signal than before for 2/13-14, too. The 12Z EPS like for earlier runs has much less snow than the 12Z GEFS and GEPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, eyewall said: I can't buy in at 300 hours. That's all we've got ATM. It's kinda like at the end of the night when you know the bar is going to close soon and the only girl left in the place is one who looks pretty good sitting way down at the other end of the bar. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Congrats VA anyway: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Congrats VA anyway: Middle son lives in Leesburg. Might be time to go see the kids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: That's all we've got ATM. It's kinda like at the end of the night when you know the bar is going to close soon and the only girl left in the place is one who looks pretty good sitting way down at the other end of the bar. On this run it is a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Not a bad run for us in Southern VA. Even the 18Z GEFS has the signal at least for now.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, CaryWx said: Give it a few days yeah, it will go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 18Z GFS really looked nice. 3 storms with some cold air from February 14 onward. Suppressed for now for the last two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18Z GEFS (outside of mountains): active again -Mean wintry amount is impressive, especially in NE GA, upstate SC, and NW 3/5 of NC with 1-2.5” of snow, snowiest run yet for those areas I think -Three (10%) really big dog snows NC, with two of those extending back into N GA -70% of members have wintry precip -50% have wintry not limited to NC -10% (3) in N FL with one as far S as north-central! -30% have IP or ZR included -some early snow 2/12-14, mainly in NC; most activity 2/17-21 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ill give the GFS credit, it won't let go of this fantasy storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Snow for Larry. And, where's Metallic now? Snow in Waycross. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, JoshM said: Ill give the GFS credit, it won't let go of this fantasy storm. Anddddd…. it’s gone. Killed by the GLL it previously had digging into Arkansas behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice. It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance. We have decent blocking in Greenland coming up. -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The EPS continues to be much drier and thus have much less wintry precip (mean is very unimpressive) than the GEFS/GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The MJO ensemble mean forecasts, especially GEFS, look favorable for cold at mid-month with weak left side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Brad P ain’t having it, at all. Saying this period, and thus this winter, has no chance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Brad P ain’t having it, at all. Saying this period, and thus this winter, has no chance Source? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Source? Link? His Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/swyyDz4sp3ZLEgJm/?mibextid=WC7FNe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: His Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/swyyDz4sp3ZLEgJm/?mibextid=WC7FNe Jack Campbell there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. Thats why it's so warm north of the storm track. Michael Berger no signs of that at all, all the cold air in on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range. When you see crazy maps with departure from average temperatures for late February, you must remember what average is. 10-15° below average in the Feb 15-25 timeframe still puts us in the 40s. It's not cold enough for winter weather. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc Quotes from Brad P on his post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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