GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12Z GEFS for Feb 16 is by a good margin coldest in at least the last 16 runs. Now let's see how well the ST jet/moisture interacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12Z GEFS big picture in more ways than one: classic split flow has been showing for this period for weeks. This is about as good a look as I’ve seen in recent years this far out. Ingredients are there. But will they mix right? That’s always the tough part for the SE, especially. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Day 7-9 Euro looks just like a repeat of January. Snow in Oklahoma and Arkansas and plenty of rain here. Then it gets cooler with no moisture in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, GaWx said: 12Z GEFS for Feb 16 is by a good margin coldest in at least the last 16 runs. Now let's see how well the ST jet/moisture interacts. It's dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 44 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's dry Nope, especially 2/17-20. From 12Z GEFS outside of the mountains 2/15-20: -21 of 30 members have wintry precip in NC. -13 have it in GA including 8 central and/or south -11 have it in SC including 7 in south -3 have it in N FL -6 have ZR and/or IP included, including part or all of the 2 of the 3 in N FL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Nope, especially 2/17-20. From 12Z GEFS outside of the mountains 2/15-20: -21 of 30 members have wintry precip in NC. -13 have it in GA including 8 cent and/or south -11 have it in SC including 7 in south -3 have it in N FL -6 have ZR and/or IP included, including 2 of the 3 in N FL Other ENS are dry including the Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Man. This is rough to see because I respect Brad a ton. He’s throwing in the towel too. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 33 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Other ENS are dry including the Canadian -The Canadian ens map you’re showing has near normal precip (white area) for that 5 day period. Near normal is neither wet nor dry in NC in mid Feb. -1/2 of the members have snow in NC outside of the mtns -4 of the 20 (20%) have widespread 3”+ snowfall, all including heaviest of 6”+, in NC. -A good number of the wet members in NC have no wintry outside of the mountains. -2 of the 20 (10%) have wintry as far south as N FL. I haven’t yet had a chance to look at the EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Man. This is rough to see because I respect Brad a ton. He’s throwing in the towel too. Everyone threw in the towel after that January bust 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12Z EPS: -Unlike the GEFS/GEPS and although there are some wet members, there are many dry members and thus the mean is dry/BN in the SE. But keep in mind that it ends 24 hours earlier though it is drier through 2/19 for sure. -Although there are a good number of very cold members, they are balanced by a good number of mild members late in the period. Thus, the mean is warmer than both of the GEFS and GEPS late in the period with the cold temps warming to mainly near normal temperatures by the end of the period. -Unlike the GEFS/GEPS means of above average snowfall in NC, the EPS has BN/little snow. So to summarize my posts regarding the 12Z ensembles for SE wintry precip potential Feb 15-19/20, the GEFS and GEPS means have AN snowfall and cold whereas the EPS mean is drier with BN snow and less cold temps late. Going to be lots of fun to see how this plays out. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS: -Unlike the GEFS/GEPS and although there are some wet members, there are many dry members and thus the mean is dry/BN in the SE. But keep in mind that it ends 24 hours earlier though it is drier through 2/19 for sure. -Although there are a good number of very cold members, they are balanced by a good number of mild members late in the period. Thus, the mean is warmer than both of the GEFS and GEPS late in the period with the cold temps warming to mainly near normal temperatures by the end of the period. -Unlike the GEFS/GEPS means of above average snowfall in NC, the EPS has BN/little snow. So to summarize my posts regarding the 12Z ensembles for SE wintry precip potential Feb 15-19/20, the GEFS and GEPS means have AN snowfall and cold whereas the EPS mean has BN snow and less cold temps. Going to be lots of fun to see how this plays out. It's not going to be fun lol 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's not going to be fun lol You need to move to Aspen Colorado. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You need to move to Aspen Colorado. I have a good friend in Steamboat. Even DT is saying there is no reason to be excited. Add him to the list of experts saying we are screwed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You need to move to Aspen Colorado. People act like the foothills should be happy to see snow every 3 years like we don't average 8-12 inches of snow a year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 31 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You need to move to Aspen Colorado. All of us outside of the mountains need to fund a trip to Lake Tahoe or the Tug Hill Plateau next winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 DT is an expert?!? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: DT is an expert?!? He has a degree in what I'm not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I've reached the acceptance phase. Bring on the severe weather storm chasing! Mother Nature owes me a waterspout that just hovers over Lake Norman and harms no one and destroys nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Y’all aren’t excited to see a few sleet pellets or ZR at hour 348? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: I've reached the acceptance phase. Bring on the severe weather storm chasing! Mother Nature owes me a waterspout that just hovers over Lake Norman and harms no one and destroys nothing. Honestly the stages of winter grief chart has been the most accurate thing posted on the forum this year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Y’all are excited to see a few sleet pellets or ZR at hour 372? Even our fantasy storms suck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: He has a degree in what I'm not sure Yelling 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 We won't be denied. No stopping the greatness of Februa....I mean Mid-February....I mean....March! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, westmc9th said: We won't be denied. No stopping the greatness of Februa....I mean Mid-February....I mean....March! In layman’s terms: it’s gonna rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’m willing to wait a bit myself. Operationals are all over the place while the Ensembles and weeklies have been consistent with the pattern turning more conducive towards wintry possibilities. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I’m willing to wait a bit myself. Operationals are all over the place while the Ensembles and weeklies have been consistent with the pattern turning more conducive towards wintry possibilities. Our area has another window coming up after that it's a crap shoot for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Wake up LarryGfs historic ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: In layman’s terms: it’s gonna rain Ollie the weather man: It gonna rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Apparantly this massive SE crippler is just going to keep showing up on the end of the GFS run for some reason… maybe we did wish winter into existance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Runs are really starting to pick up on the displacement. Somebody may want to get their seatbelts clipped in the next couple weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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