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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love for us go start seeing better trends with this storm... DT apparently still thinks it's happening. He said it's game on lol. Don't know what he's seeing..

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Storm track, HP to the North and Upslope Easterly flow. Heavy Rates are a give with that Setup if realized. 

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This storm is very close to being very big for many. It’s easy to get caught up in the windshield wiper effect but the bottom line is that we’re watching very subtle changes that can influence a big nothing burger or a paste bomb. Too early to tap out. 

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This storm is very close to being very big for many. It’s easy to get caught up in the windshield wiper effect but the bottom line is that we’re watching very subtle changes that can influence a big nothing burger or a paste bomb. Too early to tap out. 
Enjoy your posts! Thanks for bringing the positivity!

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 During the extended period of the 0Z Jan 29 GEFS, it fwiw suggests two periods with a heightened vs climo chance for a Miller A GOM SE winter storm: ~Feb 18-9 and ~Feb 24-5. During these periods, the run has a number of members with GOM lows that cross the FL pen. while in some cases underneath a Canadian high to the north centered near the Ohio Valley providing a good cold air connection while allowing for moisture to overrun the low level cold air. There have been several runs with similar dates though of course still fwiw.

 The Euro Weeklies of today suggested to me the best shot to be during the week of Feb 19-26 like it has in other runs. In addition, the mean of the last 12 runs of the CFS ensemble has the wettest week in the SE/GOM also during Feb 19-26. So, these three extended ensembles are together suggesting to me a heightened chance for a widespread SE significant winter storm within Feb 17-26 fwiw. We’ll see what happens! It could end up mild for all I know due to the unreliability of the extended models and there appears to be a couple of days of delay in the pattern change ~Feb 14, but I still like the prospects as of now starting just after the hoped for pattern change.

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