Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[wncsnow]

GFS is even warmer this run for the 4th-5th for piedmont areas

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is even warmer this run for the 4th-5th. 

The mountains do switch to snow this run. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is even warmer this run for the 4th-5th. 

It certainly is. If there were more cold air in Canada this run would be a major ice storm. It seems to have evacuated the building however.

[wncsnow]

Higher elevations get crushed with that slow moving low. Soo close to a big snow for foothills too..

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Higher elevations get crushed with that slow moving low. Soo close to a big snow for foothills too..

Wackiest run of the year. Easily.snowing in the piedmont at 189. Maybe the only way we can win is something like this where it gets delayed so much the cold can work back in.

[olafminesaw]

Still seeing some big chances in the overall look. 

[wncsnow]

Canadian is warmer but shows a massive low too

[eyewall]

If that run is on to something I better book a room in western NC.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Dr. Jonathan Wall

@_jwall

What does NC need for this storm to work out? Example: 1) A low track from TX/OK border thru the SE. 2) A Low anchored in the NE, aka 50/50 low, that helps drive in our cold air given we don’t have a banana High or large HP cold source.

 

[Divine]

51 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICONic 

reach to cash that out now, Charlotte is in a massive snow drought. Last year was the first year in Charlotte's recorded history, going back to 1878, that it had not seen a trace of snow.

[wncsnow]

UK only goes to 144 but it looked promising 

[CaryWx]

20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dr. Jonathan Wall

@_jwall

What does NC need for this storm to work out? Example: 1) A low track from TX/OK border thru the SE. 2) A Low anchored in the NE, aka 50/50 low, that helps drive in our cold air given we don’t have a banana High or large HP cold source.

 

Thanks for the deep dive.

[SnowDawg]

Confluence from the 50/50 will be key. We need an amped slow moving 50/50 in the right spot to help enhance our HP. Can at least hope this is a case of undermodeled CAD, and in the short range our HP and confluence will improve. 

[BornAgain13]

GFS has Snow/Significant ICE for southern VA/NC... ICON has Significant snow in NC... CMC has the Low but to warm = cold rain... interesting for sure.. it does look like we are going away from suppression and more into needing the cold air.

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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Confluence from the 50/50 will be key. We need an amped slow moving 50/50 in the right spot to help enhance our HP. Can at least hope this is a case of undermodeled CAD, and in the short range our HP and confluence will improve. 

Agreed.


.

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS is a solid hit for the foothills and mountains of VA and NC... also wintry into the Piedmont of NC and VA

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[PackGrad05]

23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS is a solid hit for the foothills and mountains of VA and NC... also wintry into the Piedmont of NC and VA

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Yeah roughly 10 out of 30 show something for central NC...   more so at the mountains.

[CaryWx]

49 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Agreed.


.

Me as well.  I hate counting on the "undermodeled" but is has and does happen with CAD

[BooneWX]

Better cad signature on the euro this run but it’s still not going to cut it

[BooneWX]

Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps. 

[wncsnow]

Euro has a weaker low that's more strung out.  Never gets moisture north of SC. 

[BooneWX]

Not an awful look. 

[BornAgain13]

Definitely better CAD signature on the Euro. Just no precip with it!

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[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps. 

Trying to understand here.  Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt?  I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Trying to understand here.  Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt?  I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.

Climbing the coast doesn’t create negative tilt, we just need the energy to dig a bit more and consolidate, which gives us a better chance at a negatively tilted storm. Right now it’s weak and strung out.  It’s shooting out to sea at the moment because it has no room to lift north because of the 50/50 low blocking it near Nova Scotia. The trend during 12z is to scoot that 50/50 low further east, letting the storm have more room to climb and high pressure feeding cold air down the spine of the apps. All positive steps but a slightly more amplified storm would help a bit. 

[BooneWX]

Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor. 

[CaryWx]

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor. 

You're referring the one in the OV showing up on the ensembles correct?  I need it just a hair east and anchored. 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

You're referring the one in the OV showing up on the ensembles correct?  I need it just a hair east and anchored. 

While we’re putting out requests, mark me down for it to be a 1040

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

While we’re putting out requests, mark me down for it to be a 1040

a 1040 might knock you off the mountain.  

[GaWx]

 Trend of 12Z models overall continues with the idea of a much weaker cold press from the NE/lowered wintry threat for most of the SE without that strong cold air that was on yesterday’s models and today’s 0Z ICON. There’s still time for a reversal or the possibility of some wintry from the cold air upstairs associated with the upper low, but my overall interest from a wintry aspect has dropped significantly from where it was yesterday. It was too warm for wintry when it first showed up and has now gone back in that direction quite a bit though not entirely as of yet.