PackGrad05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Highs in the 30s are more rare than highs in the 70s this time of year. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just from what I'm seeing at 144,the UKMET,ICON,and Canadian have more shortwave energy further north in CO,OK.and northern TX. Euro a tick south of there,GFS way way south of there. Oh and the GFS is scoring very poorly lately,way behind the other three. NOAA/NWS Headline Scores: ACC 31 Days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 EPS shows 20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County. GEFS shows 3% chance. GEFS pretty much lost the storm with the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We’re back to thoughts and prayers status for this winter. I get it I agree, pattern looks great on LR. But it’s about to be mid February when it does and we know what happens here with climo and everything else. When it was apparent we’d be punting 4 weeks I think most understood the writing was on the wall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We have the entire month of February and even some of March. 5 days ago, we weren't even discussing February 5-6. It is still worth watching. Is it possible we go without? Absolutely. But nothing is guaranteed. There's still plenty of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And if it doesn’t work out, will be happy to get off work on a Friday and hit golf balls and not freeze to death. I don’t like cold just for the sake of being cold. i have a feeling at lead a flizzard will occur at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 0z GFS came north a lot, but it's too warm. 540s up in Pennsylvania. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Canadian might be a hit for western NC,foothills,western piedmont. Heck of a storm off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Canadian is about as close as you can get without it snowing west of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 45 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z GFS came north a lot, but it's too warm. 540s up in Pennsylvania. The further north track and warming from recent GEFS runs to the 0Z GEFS is similar to the 0Z op GFS. The source of cold to the north in advance is much warmer than in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The angle of the cold air was all wrong to begin with. We are going to have to wait for mid February for a proper reload. Even then, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6z brings in a lot of rain next week. Temps stay in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 33 and rain, it's a southeast tradition! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The 6z GEFS still has the signal for a solid storm for NC/VA... the OP just will not cooperate lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Also the 0z CMC ensembles are a hit. Unfortunately the Euro isn't much and the EPS is very minimal.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: The angle of the cold air was all wrong to begin with. We are going to have to wait for mid February for a proper reload. Even then, who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 hours ago, GaWx said: The further north track and warming from recent GEFS runs to the 0Z GEFS is similar to the 0Z op GFS. The source of cold to the north in advance is much warmer than in recent runs. The idea of there being much less cold air to the north in advance of any storm on the 0Z GFS suite was also on the 0Z Euro suite vs its 12Z run as well as on the 6Z GFS suite. Not a good trend on these last two GFS suites or the 0Z Euro suite for SE wintry prospects as they’re too warm. They’re going to need to reverse course or else that would be all she wrote for SE wintry prospects from this system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 OTOH I just saw that the 0Z ICON was much colder than its 12Z run along with some snow and similar to the cold 18Z and prior GFS runs. (For whatever reason, the extended portion didn’t come out until much later.) This is very much a fwiw and I‘m not buying it considering the trend of the 0Z Euro and 0Z/6Z GFS suites, which will need to reverse course to revive any significant non-mountain SE wintry prospects from this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, JoshM said: 33 and rain, it's a southeast tradition! At some point you just have to laugh. A solid storm track and just not quite cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 A weaker/further north HP and the storm track is ideal but too warm at the surface. A stronger HP and it's cold enough but too far south. We kinda gotta hope that modeling is just not putting all the possible scenarios on the table right now. FWIW the GEFS mean is showing a bit of CAD. That may be our only path to frozen. Which would depend on a relatively weak HP, but the low in Atlantic Canada needs to be strong enough and in an ideal spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The idea of there being much less cold air to the north in advance of any storm on the 0Z GFS suite was also on the 0Z Euro suite vs its 12Z run as well as on the 6Z GFS suite. Not a good trend on these last two GFS suites or the 0Z Euro suite for SE wintry prospects as they’re too warm. They’re going to need to reverse course or else that would be all she wrote for SE wintry prospects from this system. The trough is too far northeast. The lack of cold air is alarming much like December again. It's going to take time to cool North America back down. We were punting until Mid Feb anyways right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 EPS and GEFS both have the 5/6 system... EPS backed off the last 3 runs.. We will see if the trend reverses. Still there, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The trough is too far northeast. The lack of cold air is alarming much like December again. It's going to take time to cool North America back down. We were punting until Mid Feb anyways right? The 6Z EPS continues the 0Z Euro suite trend toward a further NE trough/less cold air available for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, GaWx said: OTOH I just saw that the 0Z ICON was much colder than its 12Z run along with some snow and similar to the cold 18Z and prior GFS runs. (For whatever reason, the extended portion didn’t come out until much later.) This is very much a fwiw and I‘m not buying it considering the trend of the 0Z Euro and 0Z/6Z GFS suites, which will need to reverse course to revive any significant non-mountain SE wintry prospects from this storm. Here's the 0Z ICON clown, which I'd obviously love to verify with its 3" of snow imby (would be biggest snow since Dec of 1989) but am not at all buying now considering how much warmer are the GFS/Euro suites, the general inferiority of this model vs those, how much colder this run is vs yesterday's 12Z ICON, it still being out a week, and the extreme rarity of snows like this here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: Here's the 0Z ICON clown, which I'd obviously love to verify with its 3" of snow imby (would be biggest snow since Dec of 1989) but am not at all buying now considering how much warmer are the GFS/Euro suites, the general inferiority of this model vs those, how much colder this run is vs yesterday's 12Z ICON, it still being out a week, and the extreme rarity of snows like this here: Are the weeklies still showing a good pattern or have they moderated too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Are the weeklies still showing a good pattern or have they moderated too? The Weeklies clearly moderated over the weekend vs those with a stronger cold signal late last week. Also, there are some signs of can kicking of the start of the good pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, GaWx said: The Weeklies clearly moderated over the weekend vs those with a stronger cold signal late last week. I'm still trying to hold out an ounce of hope for mid February but it's getting harder to be excited with all these teases from the ENS and now weeklies. A good pattern is always on the other side but you can never reach it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 ICONic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICONic Far different from 0Z ICON. Cold press to the NE significantly weaker vs 0Z and further N track of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: Far different from 0Z ICON. Cold press to the NE significantly weaker vs 0Z and further N track of storm. Seems to be the theme all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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