tarheelwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I think we are going to need some legit cold air. Right now, I'm not seeing anything notable through about 2/10. Hope I'm wrong. I'd really like to see a storm (snow or ice, I really don't care) with temps in the 20's as opposed to a 32/33 degree slop fest. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The 12Z GEFS starts to establish a strong Aleutian Low toward the end of the run (Feb 10-11), which would be right on schedule with regard to the longer term long modeled more favorable pattern getting established for mid to late month. I’m not trusting it but I’d rather see it than not. So far, no can kicking…fingers crossed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Take it with a grain/don’t trust it, but fwiw the new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain through the end of the run (Mar 4-11). The week of Feb 19-26 is by far the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the SE of any single week per this run with Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Take it with a grain/don’t trust it, but fwiw the new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain through the end of the run (Mar 4-11). The week of Feb 19-26 is by far the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the SE of any single week per this run with Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): With the info you have posted for El Niño February's this doesn't surprise me in the least. This matches up very well with some of the great February Niños. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I know a better pattern is likely coming, but goodness, the fact this is rain is just depressing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 EPS really likes the Feb 5-9 time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, PackGrad05 said: EPS really likes the Feb 5-9 time period Is this like some kind of "blue horseshoe" comment from the Wall Street movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Blue horseshoe does like that time period for frozen precipitation in the Raleigh Durham area. I can’t disclose my external source beyond the EPS because synoptic setup not quite ideal yet but source is confident for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I dunno, but i like the look of that at this range. Maybe flizzard potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 0z looking good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Well that would shut down the whole state… . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This looks good. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This looks good. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkIm tired of tennessee getting all our snow, but ill take this all day!. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Im tired of tennessee getting all our snow, but ill take this all day! . Something will hit statewide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Well the cats out of the bag now. I hinted before 0z came out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I smell a big dog at the end….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Canadian says game on as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It is sad that we are getting excited about a fantasy storm that is only a little snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro with a day 9 BOMB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, coastal front said: Euro with a day 9 BOMB Looks nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Man, I'm gonna have to light a cigarette after that run! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18 minutes ago, Tullioz said: Looks nice. At least we get a fantasy storm. We need more cold air though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: At least we get a fantasy storm. We need more cold air though. I thought you were done with this winter... you implied that it was over.... have you repented of your sins? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6z GFS not what we’re looking for. Has above average surface temps for most of us every day except February 4-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 45 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I thought you were done with this winter... you implied that it was over.... have you repented of your sins? No kidding! The whiplash in this thread is for weenies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 FWIW, the 6z GFS OP was a miss but.... the 6z GEFS was a big hit!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 58 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW, the 6z GFS OP was a miss but.... the 6z GEFS was a big hit! Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Been a while since we've seen anything this promising on the means. Let's see if it holds at 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 EPS currently showing a 38% chance of trace of snow for Wake over next 14 days. 18% chance of 1 inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: EPS currently showing a 38% chance of trace of snow for Wake over next 14 days. 18% chance of 1 inch. Does it show the Wake County gradient? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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