Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 We go from today to a nice cool down.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 We then get another reinforced shot of cooler air behind the initial cool down. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: DT ALERT*: ⚠️**ALERT ** MAJOR CHANGES AT 500mb ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL END MILD PATTERN MUCH SOONER THAN INTIALLY THOUGHT⚠️ ...as I said in the Tuesday edition of THIS WEEK IN WEEK ... this is called UNDERCUTTING ... rare PAMELA ANDERSON Pattern change ... NEXT WEEK things are looking VERY different than what they appeared only 3-4 days ago. The 12z Models are showing some important changes. …TENN VALLEY southern Mid Atlantic snowstorm FEB 4-5?https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Regarding the bolded, that would just make the already frustrated NC folks that much madder as that’s exactly what happened in the middle of this month. The sanitarium thread would be overwhelmed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Then we have kind of a lagging trough in the NE to a much cooler pattern along the East Coast in general. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro Weeklies are still a go. The EPS is still a go. I think we end up with a muted torch. Now does that mean snow? I haven't a clue. But if there is colder air around our chances will be better than an all out torch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Regarding the bolded, that would just make the already frustrated NC folks that much madder as that’s exactly what happened in the middle of this month. The sanitarium thread would be overwhelmed! Why? DT and many other people include North Carolina into the definition of “southern Mid-Atlantic.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Look at the jet screaming out of the SW. This is classic NINO look. Although this is the STJ on roids.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This is about as good a look as your going to get. Just beautiful. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: Regarding the bolded, that would just make the already frustrated NC folks that much madder as that’s exactly what happened in the middle of this month. The sanitarium thread would be overwhelmed! Hopefully the region would score and not just the mountains West. I know that is extremely frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 36 minutes ago, Met1985 said: If you follow the ensembles they have cooled greatly just over the past few days. Yeah, we have a couple things warring against the MJO Phase. SSW affects instigating blocking. The Central Pac( modoki area) Convection enhancing the STJ. Even though the MJO is in the western area this helps to counter it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 28 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Why? DT and many other people include North Carolina into the definition of “southern Mid-Atlantic.” But our SE subforum of AmericanWx has not only NC but also VA. So, even VA is included in many other cases as SE, not mid Atlantic. Some do count VA as being in the southern Mid Atlantic. If DT’s considering NC as S Mid Atlantic, he’s off imo. The link below has VA in pink, which it is calling S Mid Atlantic: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_(United_States) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, we have a couple things warring against the MJO Phase. SSW affects instigating blocking. The Central Pac( modoki area) Convection enhancing the STJ. Even though the MJO is in the western area this helps to counter it. The MJO hasn't really fully Bern a dominant factor this season. Been lot's of talk but we've had an eclectic number of pattern drivers throughout the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, GaWx said: But our SE subforum of AmericanWx has not only NC but also VA. So, even VA is included in many other cases as SE, not mid Atlantic. Some do count VA as being in the southern Mid Atlantic. If DT’s considering NC as S Mid Atlantic, he’s off imo. The link below has VA in pink, which it is calling S Mid Atlantic: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_(United_States) I know how this forum breaks down geography. But DT didn’t post this on this forum. Although it’s hotly debated, many consider NC part of the Mid-Atlantic. It’s even been debated here for years, but that’s not an invitation to revisit that debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I know how this forum breaks down geography. But DT didn’t post this on this forum. Although it’s hotly debated, many consider NC part of the Mid-Atlantic. It’s even been debated here for years, but that’s not an invitation to revisit that debate. I posted that because of the substantive analysis by DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 42 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I know how this forum breaks down geography. But DT didn’t post this on this forum. Although it’s hotly debated, many consider NC part of the Mid-Atlantic. It’s even been debated here for years, but that’s not an invitation to revisit that debate. I just went to DT’s site and sure enough I see he has NC in what he calls the Mid Atlantic region. So, NC can now relax since he’s including it for wintry potential lol. He has DE as the most N state in the M.A. and excludes NJ, PA, and NY, which are normally included. I’ll just say that his definition of M.A. is highly unusual in that it is centered much further S than in any other case I’ve seen it used. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: DT and many other people include North Carolina into the definition of “southern Mid-Atlantic.” This is correct. DT considers the northern 1/3 of NC as being part of the Mid-Atlantic. WHAT DOES WXRISK MEAN WHEN THEY SAY "MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION"? The WPC includes all of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, Tullioz said: This is correct. DT considers the northern 1/3 of NC as being in the Mid-Atlantic. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/983420895038502 The WPC includes all of NC. DT actually includes all of NC as Mid-Atlantic. For example, Charlotte is included. Also, I didn’t know that WPC includes NC in it. What a difference in what they consider SE vs what the SE includes here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: DT actually includes all of NC as Mid-Atlantic. For example, Charlotte is included. Also, I didn’t know that WPC includes NC in it. What a difference in what they consider SE vs what the SE includes here. DT isn't always consistant, so I'm not surprised that he has conflicting definitions of what he considers to be the Mid-Atlantic. In the Facebook post I linked to he defines it this way: "So to answer the question directly when we say that term MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION wxrsk is referring to the northern third of North Carolina ...all of Virginia - except maybe the Southeast corner-- the eastern half OF West Virginia... All of Maryland & Delaware ...all of New Jersey and most of Pennsylvania ... the southern third of New York State... NYC & Long Island." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Tullioz said: DT isn't always consistant, so I'm not surprised that he has conflicting definitions of what he considers to be the Mid-Atlantic. In the Facebook post I linked to he defines it this way: "So to answer the question directly when we say that term MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION wxrsk is referring to the northern third of North Carolina ...all of Virginia - except maybe the Southeast corner-- the eastern half OF West Virginia... All of Maryland & Delaware ...all of New Jersey and most of Pennsylvania ... the southern third of New York State... NYC & Long Island." Indeed, at this link, DT’s quite different: https://wxrisk.com/operational-weather-forecasts/ The Middle Atlantic Operational Forecast includes coverage for the next two weeks. It is an all-purpose forecast that covers: West Virginia North Carolina Virginia Maryland Delaware 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Easy to tell that the 00z and 06z runs were less then exciting. My recollection is that DT stated he considered N NC as part of the southern mid-atlantic region. I did a Google search for "mid atlantic region" and went to images. Most run from VA up to NY. However, there is certainly some variance - even TN made one map (from some doctor's group). The first image is from Wikipedia. So I'd say there's nothing set in stone as to where the borders for the mid atlantic region is. However, I beleive DT has clearly stated what he refers to as the southern extent of the mid atlantic. I'm not sure where he says the northern boundary is, but I don't really care as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Weather regions should not be drawn by political or metropolitan boundaries rather geographically and atmospherically. However geo political are more readily accepted and easier to view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The fact this forum is debating geographic regions instead of analyzing digital blue today is telling… 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The fact this forum is debating geographic regions instead of analyzing digital blue today is telling… We're analyzing long range patterns in prime climo while I'm sitting at 65 degrees. How about you? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Some good news on the 12z GFS. The little disturbance dropping down from the lakes right at the start of Feb tries spark off a coastal low. The disturbance has been consistently modeled but the coastal re-development hasn't been as much. This run brings some precip into the Piedmont. As far as snow, it is borderline but not impossible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 29 minutes ago, eyewall said: Some good news on the 12z GFS. The little disturbance dropping down from the lakes right at the start of Feb tries spark off a coastal low. The disturbance has been consistently modeled but the coastal re-development hasn't been as much. This run brings some precip into the Piedmont. As far as snow, it is borderline but not impossible. Yeah it's definitely quite warm at the surface right now but if the coastal can get going it's got a shot. Problem is these late blooming coastals have been slow to develop and supressed all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The 12Z GEFS run suggests a good chance for no more widespread multiple day warmth for quite awhile in the bulk of the SE (including NC/VA lol) after this weekend. We’ll see though as ensemble means smooth out extremes due to timing differences. It wouldn’t surprise me if there are still a couple of warm ones sneaking in during Feb 1-10 before the hoped change to more sustained BN soon after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Not warm but definitely not cold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Look at this.. even if it doesn't snow in the next few weeks this weird pattern is going to be something to behold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 29 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Look at this.. even if it doesn't snow in the next few weeks this weird pattern is going to be something to behold The storms undercutting the ridge up north is going to bring us something. I mean the jet is going to be bringing in a ton of moisture. Heck we just need a thread the needle type storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now