Met1985 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. I’ve got my flame-proof suit on! Take the following new (1/24) EW maps with a HUGE grain. They may end up way off like the late Dec/early Jan runs. They’re far from trustworthy. 2. So, fwiw, the last 3 weeks of the run are each the coldest yet of their respective weeks. Even though they’re not even close to being trustworthy, I still prefer seeing them with BN dominating and like seeing the cold signal strengthening, especially since El Niño climo would support it. Feb 12-19: only 1 close to this cold is 1/21 run: Feb 19-26: by far coldest run going back 2 weeks Feb 19-26 precip: ~1” ATL, 1.5” Gainesville, FL This would definitely line up with what the ensembles are show for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18z happy hour run was not very happy but obviously still doesn’t go out to the possible pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This feels like last winter. Everything is a week away. In this case, 2 weeks away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. .In the arms of an angel…. Fly awayyyyyyyyyy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. .It will be 42 inches at 12z . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 LOL back to back events on that run at 240+ hours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 30 minutes ago, eyewall said: LOL back to back events on that run at 240+ hours. Back to back to back*** 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 You know what's coming... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: 6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. . In all seriousness I think we will start seeing fantasy storms showing up over the next several days for this period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Happy anniversary to the Carolina Crusher! I took this shot in Southern Pines NC on Midland Road on 1/25/2000 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, eyewall said: Happy anniversary to the Carolina Crusher! I took this shot in Southern Pines NC on Midland Road on 1/25/2000 The middle of the state White Whale. Good time for many!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Could it be? High pressures and southern storm systems moving in tandem? The last couple years had me thinking that low in the lakes was a permanent feature lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I realize the 6Z GFS is a cold outlier and thus of course don't buy it, but fwiw it only barely gets RDU to just over 50 only one day after Jan 28. IF it were to somehow verify closely and considering the cold potential of mid to late Feb, the chances for the coldest SE US Feb overall since 2015 would be greatly increased. That was during another El Nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RDU 6 coldest Febs since 1980 were all during El Nino: 2015, 1980, 2010, 1987, 1983, 2007 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Eric Webb: I’m still not buying the idea of a “torch” in early Feb over much of the Eastern US. Although we are getting a jet extension here, the southward shift of the Pacific Jet favors undercutting of the Canadian Ridge, keeping temps more seasonable east and south of the Great Lakes…. I still can’t quite figure out where the “true" beginning of spring lies in the longer-term over the Eastern US Even out to near the middle of March, we still might be stuck in this -NAO/east-southeastern US trough-type look. Imho, once we get past next week's Pacific Jet extension, we're in it for the long haul.” 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 As expected what the 6z giveth the 12z taketh away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Aa Jethro Bodine once said: “ Where’s all the moon maidens?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Could it be? High pressures and southern storm systems moving in tandem? The last couple years had me thinking that low in the lakes was a permanent feature lol Anddd the GLL is back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z developed a nice stout PNA ridge near the end in response to the Aleutian low. And 12z has a trough stuck west of the Rockies with a central pacific ridge. Fantasy land so it doesn't matter but it at least shows us the features we need to be looking for. Decent north Atlantic blocking looks like a given, but as always which way will the pacific go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The 12Z GEFS by a good margin has the lowest H5 hts, the coldest 850 mb/2M temperatures, and the heaviest qpf in the SE of any run to date for Feb 4-6. Unlike prior runs, it has many members with an E GOM low that then crosses the FL pen. To clarify, the run isn’t suggesting this would likely be cold enough for wintry precip. as the surface cold air supply is lacking. But it does suggest there’d likely be no warmth around this period if it were to verify. 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The one run was fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18z GFS still has the storm around the 5th. Not as impressive as the 6z but will be something to watch. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS still has the storm around the 5th. Not as impressive as the 6z but will be something to watch. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Last 2 runs of EPS also show snow around that time period... at least about 10/50 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 DT ALERT*: ⚠️**ALERT ** MAJOR CHANGES AT 500mb ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL END MILD PATTERN MUCH SOONER THAN INTIALLY THOUGHT⚠️ ...as I said in the Tuesday edition of THIS WEEK IN WEEK ... this is called UNDERCUTTING ... rare PAMELA ANDERSON Pattern change ... NEXT WEEK things are looking VERY different than what they appeared only 3-4 days ago. The 12z Models are showing some important changes. …TENN VALLEY southern Mid Atlantic snowstorm FEB 4-5?https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: DT ALERT*: ⚠️**ALERT ** MAJOR CHANGES AT 500mb ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL END MILD PATTERN MUCH SOONER THAN INTIALLY THOUGHT⚠️ ...as I said in the Tuesday edition of THIS WEEK IN WEEK ... this is called UNDERCUTTING ... rare PAMELA ANDERSON Pattern change ... NEXT WEEK things are looking VERY different than what they appeared only 3-4 days ago. The 12z Models are showing some important changes. …TENN VALLEY southern Mid Atlantic snowstorm FEB 4-5?https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g The ensembles are catching onto this today as well. Doesn't look like an all out dumpster fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Yeah, I don't think you can trust DT. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Yeah, I don't think you can trust DT. If you follow the ensembles they have cooled greatly just over the past few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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