WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: You couldn’t ask for the ridge to be in a better spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 20 minutes ago, BooneWX said: You couldn’t ask for the ridge to be in a better spot That 1/30 timeframe has rapidly become interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z GFS = close but no cigar. Plenty of cold air, shockingly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It looks to form too far offshore to me but it’s early. 18 z gfs not bad but not there either. Need it to dig slightly more and west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The brand new 12 run CFS ens, similar to the new Weeklies, looks absolutely beautiful for the 3 weeks Feb 10th-Mar 2, especially Feb 17th-Mar 2, prime time climo for moderate+ Nino’s! So, once again the 3 main extended ensembles are in agreement on calling for about as favorable a pattern as one would want to see looking so far out. They’re still subtly suggesting a good chance for at least one Miller A/GOM low thanks to a characteristic El Niño moist split flow at 500 mb. These models are far from crystal balls and thus could end up being way off, but we like to hunt down potential well ahead of time in these forecast threads and I’d much rather see them than not! Also, keep in mind the nature of ensemble runs (these are the equivalent of 48 member runs (12 runs x 4 members)) tends to reduce the intensity of anomalies. Here are some of the latest 12 run CFS ens maps for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the aforementioned 3 week period. Feb 17-24: chilly along with wet most of SE Feb 24-Mar 2: similar 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 To go along with the post above, here are the 18 3”+ RDU snow and/or sleet storms during moderate or stronger El Niños since 1889 that cover Feb 10th+: 2/21/1889: 10.0” 2/10-11/1912: 6.5” 3/3-4/1912: 3.0” 3/6/1912: 3.0” *2/13/1914: 3.8” *2/26/1914: 7.0” *3/22/1914: 3.0” *3/30-1/1915: 3.7” *4/3/1915: 10.0” 3/13/1926: 4.2” 3/24/1940: 7.0” *2/26/1952: 3.5” 2/15/1958: 3.0” 3/1/1969: 9.1” 2/10/1973: 4.5” *3/24/1983: 7.3” 2/16-17/1987: 5.0” 2/27/1987: 5.2” * No Dec/Jan measurable SN Dates: 2/10, 2/10-1, 2/13, 2/15, 2/16-7, 2/21, 2/26, 2/26, 2/27, 3/1, 3/3-4, 3/6, 3/13, 3/22, 3/24, 3/24, 3/30-1, 4/3 -9 during 2/10 through 2/27 -8 during 3/1 through 3/30-1 -1 on 4/3 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Larry excellent stuff man. Keep it coming. Love your posts and info big man. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Larry, Where's the mjo going to be you think during this time? 8-1-2? I know that's in the noise range currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Larry, Where's the mjo going to be you think during this time? 8-1-2? I know that's in the noise range currently With the MJO being difficult for the models to predict 3-6 weeks out, it’s almost anyone’s guess/way out in noise range. Even just 2 weeks out is often a challenge. The bc CFS (not a good MJO model) and 1/19 Euro Weeklies mean are saying it gets stuck within the top of the circle. But that’s merely the mean of members being all over the place. Being that I like to see it inside, near, or just outside the circle (especially LEFT side), I hope their means happen to verify well though. Could they be mainly in 8-1-2? It’s certainly possible. I just prefer that they be low amp. *Corrected typo…left not right side 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nikhil Trivedi: “In summary, I’d expect the Eastern US to be mild through Jan 29 with a brief storm window Jan 29-31. We’re mild again to start Feb, with snow chances returning as we near mid Feb. The magnitude of the storm threats rely on what the NAO ends up doing.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nikhil Trivedi: “In summary, I’d expect the Eastern US to be mild through Jan 29 with a brief storm window Jan 29-31. We’re mild again to start Feb, with snow chances returning as we near mid Feb. The magnitude of the storm threats rely on what the NAO ends up doing.”I could of told you that Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I think we are grasping at straws now. We missed our opportunity, maybe something could happen in mid February but I'm not putting much faith in it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Remember back in the day when we didn’t need all of these PNA, MJO, NAO, etc silly acronyms and it would just snow? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, lilj4425 said: Remember back in the day when we didn’t need all of these PNA, MJO, NAO, etc silly acronyms and it would just snow? I'll give you one more acronym for why we don't get snow...MIA! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: I think we are grasping at straws now. We missed our opportunity, maybe something could happen in mid February but I'm not putting much faith in it. With the last 2 Februarys being way above average, I am one not counting on snow or even real cold for that month anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GEFS NAO forecast showing it headed downward towards the end of 15 day period and visually looks to be headed that direction via 12Z GEFS towards end of run. Need ridge to pop out west and then you have a favorable synoptic set up say Feb 10 onward for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Eric Webb: “ Over the next several weeks, we're repeating the same pattern progression we had in late Dec thru mid-Jan, except the cold(er) pattern on the backend of next week's Pacific Jet extension likely lasts longer (per usual for El Nino) Aside from Nino climo, +IOD collapse favors a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean forcing late in Feb into Mar, helping to keep the gravy train going. Remember that unlike Dec-Jan, Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar actually signals cold in the eastern US.” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 29 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Eric Webb: “ Over the next several weeks, we're repeating the same pattern progression we had in late Dec thru mid-Jan, except the cold(er) pattern on the backend of next week's Pacific Jet extension likely lasts longer (per usual for El Nino) Aside from Nino climo, +IOD collapse favors a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean forcing late in Feb into Mar, helping to keep the gravy train going. Remember that unlike Dec-Jan, Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar actually signals cold in the eastern US.” Pretty desperate if we're already talking about March. I don't believe there's a chance of any winter weather here past February. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 52 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Pretty desperate if we're already talking about March. I don't believe there's a chance of any winter weather here past February. Brick. Have you tried to play golf in March the last few years? I swear I saw that mammoth from Ice Age walking across the 6th fairway last year. Good to hear from you BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 New Euro Weeklies for Feb 12-19: Does this look at all like winter is over in the SE? Not to me unless we’re playing the game of opposites. H5 hts are lowest of any run so far in SE and also suggests split flow with both a +PNA and BN hts from S CA/Baja eastward typically associated with moist subtropical jet: Easily both the strongest and also most widespread BN temperature signal yet by far and it has been getting progressively colder: Check out the wet subtropical flow from S CA/Baja into SW US/MX and then over N GOM/Gulf coast/S GA/S SC to NC coast and offshore SE US with all of the SE near to wetter than normal: This combo of maps is suggesting an El Niño induced GOM Miller A mixing with widespread cold that would be a near perfect setup for a widespread major SE winter storm near the most favorable climo for it (moderate or stronger Nino in mid Feb). I couldn’t have drawn week 4 maps any better than these to suggest such potential. Now whether or not these maps are matching anything likely even close to what will happen is probably something worth discussing as they are after all out at week 4. But I’d much rather see them than not! And the same ideas keep showing up starting around this period. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, GaWx said: New Euro Weeklies for Feb 12-19: Does this look at all like winter is over in the SE? Not to me unless we’re playing the game of opposites: H5 hts lowest of any run in SE and also suggests split flow with both a +PNA and BN hts from S CA/Baja eastward typically associated with moist subtropical jet Easily both the strongest and also most widespread BN temperature signal yet by and it has been getting progressively colder: Check out the wet subtropical flow from S CA/Baja into SW US/MX and then over N GOM/Gulf coast/S GA/S SC to NC coast and offshore SE US with all of the SE near to wetter than normal This combo of maps is suggesting an El Niño induced GOM Miller A mixing with widespread cold that would be a near perfect setup for a widespread major SE winter storm near the most favorable climo for it (moderate or stronger Nino in mid Feb). I'll believe it when it happens. Just think we'll get more of the same. Dry when it's cold and rain when it warms up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: New Euro Weeklies for Feb 12-19: Does this look at all like winter is over in the SE? Not to me unless we’re playing the game of opposites. H5 hts are lowest of any run so far in SE and also suggests split flow with both a +PNA and BN hts from S CA/Baja eastward typically associated with moist subtropical jet: Easily both the strongest and also most widespread BN temperature signal yet by far and it has been getting progressively colder: Check out the wet subtropical flow from S CA/Baja into SW US/MX and then over N GOM/Gulf coast/S GA/S SC to NC coast and offshore SE US with all of the SE near to wetter than normal: This combo of maps is suggesting an El Niño induced GOM Miller A mixing with widespread cold that would be a near perfect setup for a widespread major SE winter storm near the most favorable climo for it (moderate or stronger Nino in mid Feb). I couldn’t have drawn week 4 maps any better than these to suggest such potential. Now whether or not these maps are matching anything likely even close to what will happen is probably something worth discussing. But I’d much rather see them than not! Hopefully in the next few days we can move the timeframe up a bit. I saw the MJO looks to be progressing faster on todays plots after looking like it was going to slow down in the warm phases. The back half of winter was always the timeline with a strong nino, it’s obviously just not comforting to many of us on a 700+ day snowless streak. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 22 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Hopefully in the next few days we can move the timeframe up a bit. I saw the MJO looks to be progressing faster on todays plots after looking like it was going to slow down in the warm phases. The back half of winter was always the timeline with a strong nino, it’s obviously just not comforting to many of us on a 700+ day snowless streak. These Euro Weekly maps of today are subtly moving up the timeframe. The 3 main extended ensembles as a whole had been suggesting a little bit later in Feb as the start of the best shot but todays Euro is saying that near or just before Feb 15th could end up being the start of good opportunities. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The new extended GEFS (0Z 1/21) is still another ensemble run that looks to me to be loaded with potential, especially for 2/15-23. There are many members with Arctic surface highs with centers that later cross near or just S of the Ohio Valley while sfc lows cross the GOM with plentiful moisture as can be seen here, all consistent with a split flow of +PNA/strong subtropical jet (thank you El Niño) accompanied by a solid -AO and developing -NAO: The Euro Weeklies, extended GEFS, and CFS ensemble keep on giving me lots of hope for the period 3-5 weeks from now. They’re not at all stopping as we slowly get closer. If these keep up, we’ll start seeing the start of this favorable period getting into the 15-16 day ensembles around this weekend. *Corrected for typo to 3-5 weeks from now 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Even our fantasy storms are shit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, JoshM said: Even our fantasy storms are shit now Trade my sleet for Missouri snow please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Even our fantasy storms are shit now Yeah, don't worry yourself. It will be all rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 hours ago, JoshM said: Even our fantasy storms are shit now great La Niña we’re having 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Even our fantasy storms are shit now Ill take what i can get at this point.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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