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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

So what activities do you guys like to do in the spring?

Besides bemoaning the pathetic Piedmont winter that preceded it, it's all things watersports. Kayaking, paddleboarding, boating. Also have gotten into disc golf the last few years. Fortunate to have a really nice course within walking distance.

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15 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Besides bemoaning the pathetic Piedmont winter that preceded it, it's all things watersports. Kayaking, paddleboarding, boating. Also have gotten into disc golf the last few years. Fortunate to have a really nice course within walking distance.

Love it! We’re on the north side of lake hickory. For years I had grown to hate summers and then boating completely changed it. Fell back in love with that stretch of the year and even the heat to a degree. Access to water recreation really does make or break summers in the south imo. 

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41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Chasing native brookies. Something that's getting harder and harder these days. 

Amen. But that’s what makes them all the more rewarding to net. That’s by far my favorite fish to catch on a fly. A big brown and a smallmouth are close behind though. 

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22 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Amen. But that’s what makes them all the more rewarding to net. That’s by far my favorite fish to catch on a fly. A big brown and a smallmouth are close behind though. 

20 or so years ago when I was a teenager trout fishing was so much better and places like the Upper Wilson Creek tributaries were somewhat secluded. I would catch huge native brookies (which is like 10 inches) Now it's a shitshow up there in the spring. Same with South Toe and other places. The road being washed out helped a little up there. Covid really brought the people to places I never expected to see full. Now it's almost always full. 

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36 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The EPS and other models only show 4 "warm" days out of the next two weeks.  The rest of the days are pretty seasonal for this time of year.

January 29/30 isn't far from something, either.

1. 1/30-2/1 will be interesting to follow as it is on the 6Z gfs quite cold (though not as cold as current), but it is colder than any other recent run and is an outlier vs GEFS. Also, it is mainly dry other than mtn upslope and far NE NC/E VA as the cold mainly follows the precip. Regardless, this period offers a good chance for a break in the middle of the mild pattern with a cooldown to at least normal.

2. 1/28 on GEFS shows what could be a +2 NAO, which would be the highest for any day  in met winter in over 8 years.

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Actual weather discussion in the weather thread?!?! Nice to see models throwing a gap in the torch. Unfortunately the +2 NAO is just awful but at least the 70’s appear limited to next week. I really don’t like the ensemble look from the 2nd through the end of the runs but with the nino, pac and lack of blocking, even the warmups are going to be tough to lock in for long with everything flying around. Seasonal seems to be the call, which doesn’t bode well for snow but will keep the blooming at bay. It’ll be interesting once we get in range of mid month to see if changes start appearing on the ensembles. Some agreement across guidance of a pattern change would go a long way to brighten the spirits of this board. All we can do is wait for everything to get in range. That end of month period might work out for the mountains though. I’m glad parts of the region are having a better winter than last couple years. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Actual weather discussion in the weather thread?!?! Nice to see models throwing a gap in the torch. Unfortunately the +2 NAO is just awful but at least the 70’s appear limited to next week. I really don’t like the ensemble look from the 2nd through the end of the runs but with the nino, pac and lack of blocking, even the warmups are going to be tough to lock in for long with everything flying around. Seasonal seems to be the call, which doesn’t bode well for snow but will keep the blooming at bay. It’ll be interesting once we get in range of mid month to see if changes start appearing on the ensembles. Some agreement across guidance of a pattern change would go a long way to brighten the spirits of this board. All we can do is wait for everything to get in range. That end of month period might work out for the mountains though. I’m glad parts of the region are having a better winter than last couple years. 

 Based on the timing of recent extended models (besides the likely cool to cold 1/30-2/1), I’m looking to see the +PNA ridge start to repump ~2/12-3 along with the possible return of the -AO. Hopefully that will hold up. That would start showing up at the end of the 16 day GEFS/GEPS on ~the 1/27-8 runs and on the 1/28-9 EPS.

 I found this elsewhere for way out on 3/4 on yesterday’s weeklies fwiw:

IMG_8958.thumb.png.f9cf904ee8fc0051ab9086d82644827c.png

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11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The torch in December also wasn’t as torchy as we thought it’d be. A couple well above average days but mostly muted by endless rainstorms - which, looks exactly like the upcoming pattern. 

True. 40 degrees drizzle wedge is what we do best!

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48 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Also that 28-30th time period would favor a cold source in New England vs the Midwest. Much more favorable around these parts. At least something to watch 

Agree.  Orientation of the cold in February is much more conducive to winter weather on this side of the apps.  Of course it changes every 24 hours which is probably a good sign.  

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5 minutes ago, Chuck said:

 

Years from now this will be the optimistic southeast weather peeps waiting for a substantial snow...

1705782198180_23406800680496.gif.28a336b9fc200bb7dbea6ffdf8525721.gif

At the same time, consider my former abode of West Seneca, NY for the last seven days. I think I'd prefer what we've gotten. Anything over a foot and a half was rough to deal with while living there in my teenage years.Screenshot_20240120_153130_Opera-01.thumb.jpeg.f5a1260496b2a906b67b73bf5c3f2996.jpeg

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 I can’t help but love what the new Weeklies are showing for especially 2/12-26, which is similar to recent runs but even colder and wetter. There’s a clear pattern change to a +PNA/-AO/-NAO induced chilly SE along with near to AN precip. This happens to be during a prime time period for Nino winter storm climo. I mean what more can one ask for looking 3-5 weeks out. Man I hope this ends up verifying closely because the SE would be facing the potential of a memorable mid to late Feb (possibly going into early Mar).

 Week of 2/12-19: hint of Deep South Miller A low: 

IMG_8961.thumb.webp.563fa17936acc5099596e0bea09398f4.webp
 

IMG_8959.thumb.webp.6d0a05d9fbd9cb0d068953e9a32e73d0.webp


Week of 2/19-26: similar

IMG_8962.thumb.webp.094a835e42d312c3b0334899e1b81d3d.webp
 

IMG_8960.thumb.webp.959980c4673be7de8ea381ad4caeb35a.webp

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