BornAgain13 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like the next system misses to the north but we may get some ZR in Southern VA.... both NAMS showing it.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Welp, another craptastic winter. Today was 37-34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Time to open your windows by the end of the 0z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, JoshM said: Time to open your windows by the end of the 0z GFS Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Whatever, another bust of a winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Welp. This season started with such hope. Maybe ranking among the best of all time. 79-80 and even 95-96 were mentioned when talking about this year. However, we’re headed into late January and we suck again having lost 4/5. Oh and this winter sucks too. Hoping for that February turnaround and great March for both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This isn’t designed to be a pessimistic post but the reality is that outside of the mountains, we’re all going to have to dial back our expectations going forward and we should ignore the Mets who love to throw out lofty analog years every given winter. The oceans are cooking right now. The Atlantic is breaking all-time records for warmth this time of year and a warm pacific has contributed to an absurdly bad pacific pattern for us not only now but for years. It was challenging to get snow decades ago and it’s a big ask now when our region is constantly torn between mild pacific patterns and a SER that just can’t help itself with the Caribbean temperatures 100 miles off our coastlines. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This isn’t designed to be a pessimistic post but the reality is that outside of the mountains, we’re all going to have to dial back our expectations going forward and we should ignore the Mets who love to throw out lofty analog years every given winter. The oceans are cooking right now. The Atlantic is breaking all-time records for warmth this time of year and a warm pacific has contributed to an absurdly bad pacific pattern for us not only now but for years. It was challenging to get snow decades ago and it’s a big ask now when our region is constantly torn between mild pacific patterns and a SER that just can’t help itself with the Caribbean temperatures 100 miles off our coastlines. We need a major volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike at this point. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We need a major volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike at this point.Well 1 of the 2 is happening right now…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, eyewall said: We need a major volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike at this point. the first one smells like a pattern that leads to suppressed storm tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: I’m between 4 and 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 22 hours ago, GaWx said: RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+: 1903: 0” 1914: 17.2” 1915: 14.3” 1919: 3.3” 1924: 4.5” 1941: 1.8” 1952: 4.7” 1983: 11.8” 1992: 0” So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J. OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.) The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season. But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up. More on these 9 (moderate or stronger Nino with no measurable snow Dec and Jan): -Even though 1/3 of them had less snow than climo Feb 15+, the 9 together still averaged almost a normal full season just for Feb 15 through April with 5.4”. This compares to an average of 3.6” for Feb 15+ for the 22 moderate+ Nino seasons that had measurable SN in either Dec or Jan. So, keep the snow away til Feb lol. -Keep in mind that even the 3.6” is ~1” snowier than climo for all years for just Feb 15+. So, the 5.4” for Feb 15+ for the 9 years is double climo. -Feb/Mar temp anomalies for these 9: 1903: +1/-3, 1914: -6/-6, 1915: +1/-9 1919: -3/+1, 1924: -4/-3, 1941: -6/-7 1952: 0/-3, 1983: -4/-1, 1992: +1/-1 Avg of the 9: Feb -2/Mar -4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looking at the long range out 14 days to first week of Feb., the cold in Canada looks better today and looked even better overnight. NAO looks to stay positive but so does PNA. MJO looks to maybe get through 6 and some plots have it going into 7. Still feel like we get our chance in February. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 water temperatures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 54 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Looking at the long range out 14 days to first week of Feb., the cold in Canada looks better today and looked even better overnight. NAO looks to stay positive but so does PNA. MJO looks to maybe get through 6 and some plots have it going into 7. Still feel like we get our chance in February. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml I agree with you. I believe we score in February. The big snow February 12/13/2014 didn’t have A -NAO best I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: Looking at the long range out 14 days to first week of Feb., the cold in Canada looks better today and looked even better overnight. NAO looks to stay positive but so does PNA. MJO looks to maybe get through 6 and some plots have it going into 7. Still feel like we get our chance in February. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Me as well. For the mjo I don't look too far beyond 7 days for the mean. Even there it has tightened ever so slightly in the last few days closer to the center circle in it's rotation That phase 7 curl back to 6 at day-14? Yeah, not sure we are going to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Kinda feels like we’ve got one shot left. We burn that first week in February we are definitely running out of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Kinda feels like we’ve got one shot left. We burn that first week in February we are definitely running out of time We have two imo. Early first couple (few?) days in Feb and then a period between the 14th and 21st but that's airing it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Kinda feels like we’ve got one shot left. We burn that first week in February we are definitely running out of time Yeah, I hear you. If you look at the long range link I sent today, and I'm not the expert others are, it would seem to me maybe the 5th, which is start of week 2, would be the earliest for a true pattern change. However, winter is a fast flow so things can change fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: water temperatures Hurricane season is going to suck if we get a low shear environment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, CaryWx said: We have two imo. Early first couple (few?) days in Feb and then a period between the 14th and 21st but that's airing it out The idea you can accurately project the weather form a month from now is laughable. Things can change very quick. You should not trust weather 7-10 days out, much less a period a month from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, mclean02 said: Hurricane season is going to suck if we get a low shear environment. La Niña is gonna have guys like Josh Morgerman and Reed Timmer taking short trips this summer and fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36 minutes ago, Divine said: The idea you can accurately project the weather form a month from now is laughable. Things can change very quick. You should not trust weather 7-10 days out, much less a period a month from now. Agreed but the larger feature indices are all we have to go on. Granted many have low score verification, especially in the noise range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 hours ago, BooneWX said: This isn’t designed to be a pessimistic post but the reality is that outside of the mountains, we’re all going to have to dial back our expectations going forward and we should ignore the Mets who love to throw out lofty analog years every given winter. The oceans are cooking right now. The Atlantic is breaking all-time records for warmth this time of year and a warm pacific has contributed to an absurdly bad pacific pattern for us not only now but for years. It was challenging to get snow decades ago and it’s a big ask now when our region is constantly torn between mild pacific patterns and a SER that just can’t help itself with the Caribbean temperatures 100 miles off our coastlines. VA Beach got a 14 inch snowstorm as recent as 2018. It can happen and will happen again but less frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, Divine said: The idea you can accurately project the weather form a month from now is laughable. Things can change very quick. You should not trust weather 7-10 days out, much less a period a month from now. Look no further than how warm the Dec 26th run of the Euro Weeklies had for the week of Jan 15-22 (2-7 F WARMER than normal in most of the E US) vs current progs of 10-20 F COLDER than normal in most of the same areas) for a perfect example of how far off it was just 20 days prior! So, the Dec 26th run’s Jan 15-22 will end up ~12-27 F too warm! Twenty days from now is only Feb 7th. So, for those who feel confident about mid Feb and beyond, keep this in mind as regards the severe limits of our abilities to accurately forecast out just 3 weeks. Also, keep in mind moderate+ Nino climo, which often favors Feb 15th and beyond for the best stretch of the winter. Due to limits on attachments (I hate them) and thus instead of reposting them here, here’s the link to my post about this along with the Euro Weeklies maps in the TN Valley forum: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 No one outside of the mountains after hour 126 on 0z GFS goes below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Get those shorts out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 For what it’s worth, the GEFS looks worse than awful the entire run. Op in perfect alignment, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Saw that and noticed the same thing. Who knows at this point? I personally hate dry cold like this so the warm up will be welcomed by me. Perhaps things turn around after that and if we get a beneficial SSW.event then we could turn the NAO -. Griteater may have to adjust his snow possibility meter for early February unless ensembles show signs of a true + PNA like we were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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