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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A tick northward with the Friday light snow chance. Rinse, wash, repeat:

image.thumb.png.d2064aeaa40eaabaaa3de1c439da1494.png

We (anyone outside of mountains and south of Virginia) are cooked. Looking at burning 2 more weeks of prime climo with nothing showing besides historical analogs and LR pattern analysis. Seriously, there has been so much time spent over the last month analyzing what will turn out to be 4 below normal days with a warmup for next week. 

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We (anyone outside of mountains and south of Virginia) are cooked. Looking at burning 2 more weeks of prime climo with nothing showing besides historical analogs and LR pattern analysis. Seriously, there has been so much time spent over the last month analyzing what will turn out to be 4 below normal days with a warmup for next week. 

Don’t forget the snow pack ;)


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 RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+:

1903: 0”

1914: 17.2”

1915: 14.3”

1919: 3.3”

1924: 4.5”

1941: 1.8”

1952: 4.7”

1983: 11.8”

1992: 0”

 So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J.

 OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.)

 The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season.
 

 But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up.

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I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating couple of years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here.

The coldest month on record at GSP is Janaury 1977 and there were days in the 50's and even a 55 on Janaury 27.

The coldest February on record at GSP is February 1980.  We had 8" of snow that month with 3 events.  We also had 4 days in the 70's including a 76 a few days before March 1, 1980.  Anyone around the Carolinas then remembers what happened March 1-2, 1980. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating ***6*** years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here.

Fixed it for you B)

No one expects wall to wall cold, that’s not the problem. It’s purely that we simply haven’t had many cold shots and have had well fewer than normal opportunities to track since December 2018. We just spent 2 months discussing a pattern change that led to this week which clearly wasn’t the cold outbreak we expected. With 70’s showing up next week and the next chance at wintry weather looking like February at the earliest, it’s pretty safe to say that 2/3 of our best wintry months will have been wasted. And before anyone tells me it can snow in march, I DO NOT CARE. Banking snow in march is like playing the lottery here. Heck, in our new climate, past Valentine’s Day seems almost impossible. If this was year 2 or 3 of the snow drought, yea I’d be gaslighting. But year 6 and this is feeling like less of a drought and more like the new norm. It sucks but that’s where we are at 

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48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+:

1903: 0”

1914: 17.2”

1915: 14.3”

1919: 3.3”

1924: 4.5”

1941: 1.8”

1952: 4.7”

1983: 11.8”

1992: 0”

 So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J.

 OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.)

 The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season.
 

 But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up.

Please no 1903 or 1992. We need 1914.

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fixed it for you B)

No one expects wall to wall cold, that’s not the problem. It’s purely that we simply haven’t had many cold shots and have had well fewer than normal opportunities to track since December 2018. We just spent 2 months discussing a pattern change that led to this week which clearly wasn’t the cold outbreak we expected. With 70’s showing up next week and the next chance at wintry weather looking like February at the earliest, it’s pretty safe to say that 2/3 of our best wintry months will have been wasted. And before anyone tells me it can snow in march, I DO NOT CARE. Banking snow in march is like playing the lottery here. Heck, in our new climate, past Valentine’s Day seems almost impossible. If this was year 2 or 3 of the snow drought, yea I’d be gaslighting. But year 6 and this is feeling like less of a drought and more like the new norm. It sucks but that’s where we are at 

Yep. It stinks.  Snow drought is probably an appropriate term.  The 1950s had a similar snow drought in the SE.  Still think Feb holds some opportunities 

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56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+:

1903: 0”

1914: 17.2”

1915: 14.3”

1919: 3.3”

1924: 4.5”

1941: 1.8”

1952: 4.7”

1983: 11.8”

1992: 0”

 So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J.

 OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.)

 The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season.
 

 But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up.

You can go ahead and say no measurable snow in 10 of 32 now :ph34r:

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3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. 

For sure. it's currently 21/11 in Birmingham Alabama. Little Rock has been below freezing since Saturday afternoon. Also the projected difference in temps between just east of the mountains and just west is wild for tomorrow morning. Negative teens in Eastern TN and teens here, or 52 degrees below average in TN and 15 degrees below average here

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

For sure. it's currently 21/11 in Birmingham Alabama. Little Rock has been below freezing since Saturday afternoon. Also the projected difference in temps between just east of the mountains and just west is wild for tomorrow morning. Negative teens in Eastern TN and teens here, or 52 degrees below average in TN and 15 degrees below average here

The Appalachians are a powerful force… Temp is dropping quickly here now. Down from 39.6 an hour ago to 37.4 now

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16 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. 

I think it might have more to do with the southeast ridge slowing down heavy cold air plus the Appalachians

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13 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Correct me if I am wrong.  I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89.  Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96.  

Early 90's weren't very snowy but there were a few good storms mainly for WNC. 

december_20-21_1993_nc_snowmap.gif

december_22-24_1993_nc_snowmap.png

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15 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Correct me if I am wrong.  I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89.  Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96.  

I have done a lot of research on this (probably not as much as GaWx) but snow is very cyclical for most of the south. At my location, it's extremely common to have 2 or 3 snowless winters in a row before having 2 or 3 winters with snow. 2011-12 and 2012-13 were both meager with only a dusting of snow, sleet and ice here. 2006-07 and 2007-08 and 2008-09 were all pretty lousy with only one or 2 small events here. While 2009-10 and 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15 had multiple snows here. It's been rare to have a blockbuster winter then a shutout the following winter and many winters were saved by 1 storm (1992-93, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2021-22)

 

With all of that being said, I almost expected this winter to be poor because of the cyclical nature of things. Next winter could be as well to finish the cycle. 

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This isn’t scientific, but illustrates the struggle for snow lovers:

2018-19: 1 event (December, ~7” changed to rain in afternoon)

2019-20: 1 event (February, ~1.5”. Didn’t stick to roads)

2020-21: 1 event (January, ~2”. Didn’t stick to roads)

2021-22: 1 event (good storm. 3-5” from triangle-east) 

2022-3: blanked

2023-4: blanked (so far)

RDU averages 5.9” of snow per season. Our total cumulative snowfall over the past 5 seasons just barely hits that mark. Totals aside, unless I’ve forgotten another minor event in there, there have been just 4 events over the last 6 years in my neck of the woods and none of them featured a season with multiple events. It’s the first time (I believe) in my life (born in 89) that we have had a snow drought this substantial for that duration 

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27 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I think it might have more to do with the southeast ridge slowing down heavy cold air plus the Appalachians

Brad P doesn’t think this is a case of the Appalachians blocking the cold. He says:  “actually, no, this has nothing to do with the mountains. The flow is out of the Southwest, and it's colder and snowing to our southwest. It's just where the trough is located, and the moisture, so the mountains play no role in this.”

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41 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

@GaWx since I have no idea where you get your data, how many times has RDU had two snowless winters in a row? 

Twice for non measurable:

-1948-9, 1949-50

-1990-1, 1991-2

-11 seasons without measurable

-So, 2 of 11 seasons w/o measurable had no measurable the subsequent winters

 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

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Looking at the longrange on the 12Z GFS today is not good for us snow lovers in the SE.  Any cold intrusions after this weekend look sparse going into the first week of February.  Remains to be seen if the cold returns as moldeled earlier.  NAO looks to head positive, PNA stays positive (good), but MJO is headed to 6 before maybe COD.  Not the trends we want.  

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16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Twice for non measurable:

-1948-9, 1949-50

-1990-1, 1991-2

-11 seasons without measurable

-So, 2 of 11 seasons w/o measurable had no measurable the subsequent winters

 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

Thank you! So, if we end this season without measurable snow, it would be an exceptionally rare occurrence that we had two snowless seasons in a row

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I will agree with another poster the other day that this pattern is not helping many of us in NC and SC. All we can do is wait a few weeks and hope February and maybe the first week of March will save us. We still have plenty of time so I have faith that February will deliver the goods. So let’s hope for a repeat of February 2004 if you know you know


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1 hour ago, hickory said:

I will agree with another poster the other day that this pattern is not helping many of us in NC and SC. All we can do is wait a few weeks and hope February and maybe the first week of March will save us. We still have plenty of time so I have faith that February will deliver the goods. So let’s hope for a repeat of February 2004 emoji846.png if you know you know emoji1303.png


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I have had blooming trees the first week of March the past two years. Worst part about any snow by then is it’s usually white rain followed by 72 degrees in a few days.

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7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This isn’t scientific, but illustrates the struggle for snow lovers:

2018-19: 1 event (December, ~7” changed to rain in afternoon)

2019-20: 1 event (February, ~1.5”. Didn’t stick to roads)

2020-21: 1 event (January, ~2”. Didn’t stick to roads)

2021-22: 1 event (good storm. 3-5” from triangle-east) 

2022-3: blanked

2023-4: blanked (so far)

RDU averages 5.9” of snow per season. Our total cumulative snowfall over the past 5 seasons just barely hits that mark. Totals aside, unless I’ve forgotten another minor event in there, there have been just 4 events over the last 6 years in my neck of the woods and none of them featured a season with multiple events. It’s the first time (I believe) in my life (born in 89) that we have had a snow drought this substantial for that duration 

Atleast for Charlotte, historically the snowiest day on average is March 2nd

Plenty of time to go

 

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