WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 At least Roanoke, Richmond, and mountainous Northwest North Carolina got some decent snow. Until we get a western ridge, I am not hopeful for the Triad. We need the Eastern trough to be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, not along the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A tick northward with the Friday light snow chance. Rinse, wash, repeat: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: A tick northward with the Friday light snow chance. Rinse, wash, repeat: We (anyone outside of mountains and south of Virginia) are cooked. Looking at burning 2 more weeks of prime climo with nothing showing besides historical analogs and LR pattern analysis. Seriously, there has been so much time spent over the last month analyzing what will turn out to be 4 below normal days with a warmup for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The 6z GFS features a period with 7 out of 8 days having measurable precip. Might as well just swap climates with Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 We (anyone outside of mountains and south of Virginia) are cooked. Looking at burning 2 more weeks of prime climo with nothing showing besides historical analogs and LR pattern analysis. Seriously, there has been so much time spent over the last month analyzing what will turn out to be 4 below normal days with a warmup for next week. Don’t forget the snow pack . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+: 1903: 0” 1914: 17.2” 1915: 14.3” 1919: 3.3” 1924: 4.5” 1941: 1.8” 1952: 4.7” 1983: 11.8” 1992: 0” So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J. OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.) The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season. But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating couple of years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here. The coldest month on record at GSP is Janaury 1977 and there were days in the 50's and even a 55 on Janaury 27. The coldest February on record at GSP is February 1980. We had 8" of snow that month with 3 events. We also had 4 days in the 70's including a 76 a few days before March 1, 1980. Anyone around the Carolinas then remembers what happened March 1-2, 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating ***6*** years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here. Fixed it for you No one expects wall to wall cold, that’s not the problem. It’s purely that we simply haven’t had many cold shots and have had well fewer than normal opportunities to track since December 2018. We just spent 2 months discussing a pattern change that led to this week which clearly wasn’t the cold outbreak we expected. With 70’s showing up next week and the next chance at wintry weather looking like February at the earliest, it’s pretty safe to say that 2/3 of our best wintry months will have been wasted. And before anyone tells me it can snow in march, I DO NOT CARE. Banking snow in march is like playing the lottery here. Heck, in our new climate, past Valentine’s Day seems almost impossible. If this was year 2 or 3 of the snow drought, yea I’d be gaslighting. But year 6 and this is feeling like less of a drought and more like the new norm. It sucks but that’s where we are at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 48 minutes ago, GaWx said: RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+: 1903: 0” 1914: 17.2” 1915: 14.3” 1919: 3.3” 1924: 4.5” 1941: 1.8” 1952: 4.7” 1983: 11.8” 1992: 0” So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J. OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.) The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season. But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up. Please no 1903 or 1992. We need 1914. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Fixed it for you No one expects wall to wall cold, that’s not the problem. It’s purely that we simply haven’t had many cold shots and have had well fewer than normal opportunities to track since December 2018. We just spent 2 months discussing a pattern change that led to this week which clearly wasn’t the cold outbreak we expected. With 70’s showing up next week and the next chance at wintry weather looking like February at the earliest, it’s pretty safe to say that 2/3 of our best wintry months will have been wasted. And before anyone tells me it can snow in march, I DO NOT CARE. Banking snow in march is like playing the lottery here. Heck, in our new climate, past Valentine’s Day seems almost impossible. If this was year 2 or 3 of the snow drought, yea I’d be gaslighting. But year 6 and this is feeling like less of a drought and more like the new norm. It sucks but that’s where we are at Yep. It stinks. Snow drought is probably an appropriate term. The 1950s had a similar snow drought in the SE. Still think Feb holds some opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 56 minutes ago, GaWx said: RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+: 1903: 0” 1914: 17.2” 1915: 14.3” 1919: 3.3” 1924: 4.5” 1941: 1.8” 1952: 4.7” 1983: 11.8” 1992: 0” So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J. OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.) The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season. But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up. You can go ahead and say no measurable snow in 10 of 32 now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 @GaWx since I have no idea where you get your data, how many times has RDU had two snowless winters in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Correct me if I am wrong. I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89. Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. For sure. it's currently 21/11 in Birmingham Alabama. Little Rock has been below freezing since Saturday afternoon. Also the projected difference in temps between just east of the mountains and just west is wild for tomorrow morning. Negative teens in Eastern TN and teens here, or 52 degrees below average in TN and 15 degrees below average here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: For sure. it's currently 21/11 in Birmingham Alabama. Little Rock has been below freezing since Saturday afternoon. Also the projected difference in temps between just east of the mountains and just west is wild for tomorrow morning. Negative teens in Eastern TN and teens here, or 52 degrees below average in TN and 15 degrees below average here The Appalachians are a powerful force… Temp is dropping quickly here now. Down from 39.6 an hour ago to 37.4 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. I think it might have more to do with the southeast ridge slowing down heavy cold air plus the Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Correct me if I am wrong. I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89. Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96. Early 90's weren't very snowy but there were a few good storms mainly for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Correct me if I am wrong. I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89. Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96. I have done a lot of research on this (probably not as much as GaWx) but snow is very cyclical for most of the south. At my location, it's extremely common to have 2 or 3 snowless winters in a row before having 2 or 3 winters with snow. 2011-12 and 2012-13 were both meager with only a dusting of snow, sleet and ice here. 2006-07 and 2007-08 and 2008-09 were all pretty lousy with only one or 2 small events here. While 2009-10 and 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15 had multiple snows here. It's been rare to have a blockbuster winter then a shutout the following winter and many winters were saved by 1 storm (1992-93, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2021-22) With all of that being said, I almost expected this winter to be poor because of the cyclical nature of things. Next winter could be as well to finish the cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro tries to lay some snow down north of Raleigh Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This isn’t scientific, but illustrates the struggle for snow lovers: 2018-19: 1 event (December, ~7” changed to rain in afternoon) 2019-20: 1 event (February, ~1.5”. Didn’t stick to roads) 2020-21: 1 event (January, ~2”. Didn’t stick to roads) 2021-22: 1 event (good storm. 3-5” from triangle-east) 2022-3: blanked 2023-4: blanked (so far) RDU averages 5.9” of snow per season. Our total cumulative snowfall over the past 5 seasons just barely hits that mark. Totals aside, unless I’ve forgotten another minor event in there, there have been just 4 events over the last 6 years in my neck of the woods and none of them featured a season with multiple events. It’s the first time (I believe) in my life (born in 89) that we have had a snow drought this substantial for that duration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 27 minutes ago, mclean02 said: I think it might have more to do with the southeast ridge slowing down heavy cold air plus the Appalachians Brad P doesn’t think this is a case of the Appalachians blocking the cold. He says: “actually, no, this has nothing to do with the mountains. The flow is out of the Southwest, and it's colder and snowing to our southwest. It's just where the trough is located, and the moisture, so the mountains play no role in this.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 41 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: @GaWx since I have no idea where you get your data, how many times has RDU had two snowless winters in a row? Twice for non measurable: -1948-9, 1949-50 -1990-1, 1991-2 -11 seasons without measurable -So, 2 of 11 seasons w/o measurable had no measurable the subsequent winters https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looking at the longrange on the 12Z GFS today is not good for us snow lovers in the SE. Any cold intrusions after this weekend look sparse going into the first week of February. Remains to be seen if the cold returns as moldeled earlier. NAO looks to head positive, PNA stays positive (good), but MJO is headed to 6 before maybe COD. Not the trends we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: Twice for non measurable: -1948-9, 1949-50 -1990-1, 1991-2 -11 seasons without measurable -So, 2 of 11 seasons w/o measurable had no measurable the subsequent winters https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Thank you! So, if we end this season without measurable snow, it would be an exceptionally rare occurrence that we had two snowless seasons in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Could easily slip away and it is a longshot already. The good news is no additional tick north in the happy hour run. This is the last hope before we torch for a bit: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I will agree with another poster the other day that this pattern is not helping many of us in NC and SC. All we can do is wait a few weeks and hope February and maybe the first week of March will save us. We still have plenty of time so I have faith that February will deliver the goods. So let’s hope for a repeat of February 2004 if you know you know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Make or break is the first week of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, hickory said: I will agree with another poster the other day that this pattern is not helping many of us in NC and SC. All we can do is wait a few weeks and hope February and maybe the first week of March will save us. We still have plenty of time so I have faith that February will deliver the goods. So let’s hope for a repeat of February 2004 if you know you know . I have had blooming trees the first week of March the past two years. Worst part about any snow by then is it’s usually white rain followed by 72 degrees in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This isn’t scientific, but illustrates the struggle for snow lovers: 2018-19: 1 event (December, ~7” changed to rain in afternoon) 2019-20: 1 event (February, ~1.5”. Didn’t stick to roads) 2020-21: 1 event (January, ~2”. Didn’t stick to roads) 2021-22: 1 event (good storm. 3-5” from triangle-east) 2022-3: blanked 2023-4: blanked (so far) RDU averages 5.9” of snow per season. Our total cumulative snowfall over the past 5 seasons just barely hits that mark. Totals aside, unless I’ve forgotten another minor event in there, there have been just 4 events over the last 6 years in my neck of the woods and none of them featured a season with multiple events. It’s the first time (I believe) in my life (born in 89) that we have had a snow drought this substantial for that duration Atleast for Charlotte, historically the snowiest day on average is March 2nd Plenty of time to go 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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