WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Can we swing that 50 miles south so that RDU gets over 1”? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 hours ago, GaWx said: -For RDU for the 31 El Niños that were moderate or stronger, keep in mind for snowfall that only 29% (2.2”) fell on avg through 1/20 with 5.4” 1/21+. -Regarding the 15 (one every other winter) 6”+ storms, median date not til Feb 10-11 -More 6”+ events in Mar (4) than Feb (3) or Jan (3) -Peak 10 day frequency for 6”+ 2/21-3/2 (4) So you’re saying… Fabulous February will save us??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: You just couldn't help getting premium so you could see how much we suck in fine detail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: So you’re saying… Fabulous February will save us??? It may very well based on the extended models, non-east based El Niño climo, and the MJO. If not, don’t give up on Magnificent March. One year Amazing April even did it! Plus there are the couple of opportunities in the middle of Jumping January next week for at least something modest. It is still very early and Feb is looking promising. Even Eric Webb is excited about Feb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z NAM showing precipitation over northern NC Tuesday night for possibly some snow that could give a dusting by Wednesday AM. This was advertised earlier on an earlier GFS run today. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z ICON is solid.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 thing that hasn't been mentioned is the ground temps. They are pretty cold and will get colder tonight and tomorrow... whatever falls Monday/Tuesday should begin sticking right away.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: It may very well based on the extended models, non-east based El Niño climo, and the MJO. If not, don’t give up on Magnificent March. One year Amazing April even did it! Plus there are the couple of opportunities in the middle of Jumping January next week for at least something modest. It is still very early and Feb is looking promising. Even Eric Webb is excited about Feb. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like the NW Georgia Peeps could cash in along with people in the Tennessee Valley that struggle many times to score. If the HI-RES EURO is right, more people in NW Georgia and North Georgia could score. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looking rather toasty around day 10-14. But signs of another pattern change after. We need a hard reset for early February anyway. Anything after the first week of February is normally drippy slop, which I'm not really about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Looking rather toasty around day 10-14. But signs of another pattern change after. We need a hard reset for early February anyway. Anything after the first week of February is normally drippy slop, which I'm not really about Yeah this has been talked about for weeks. Nothing new and it's basically just a reset. The weeklies and eps look really good after this relaxation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 13 hours ago, HWY316wx said: Looks like the NW Georgia Peeps could cash in along with people in the Tennessee Valley that struggle many times to score. If the HI-RES EURO is right, more people in NW Georgia and North Georgia could score. I remember you were also at Peach State Wx. Folks, looking further ahead: A warmup is expected during late January. This has been progged for quite some time as @Met1985just said. Warmups are normal, especially after a 10 day cold dominated period, and considering a then strong MJO 5/6, strong +AO/NAO, and a neutral PNA. Further out (early Feb) and although longer range MJO amp forecasts have been underdone, the MJO is projected fwiw to approach and quite possibly go near or inside the circle (weak MJO tends to be more favorable to E US cold chances than strong MJO despite what’s about to happen). (We’ll see if the MJO really does weaken then.) If it doesn't go inside the circle, it should traverse the colder left side (hopefully not too strongly). For all of Feb, yesterday's Euro weeklies have a solid Aleutian low/+PNA dominating. The SE US gets colder in early Feb. The same weeklies also give a solid -NAO and -AO for Feb 12-26. With the solid +PNA/-NAO/-AO/El Nino combo, the SE is mainly cool to cold then, especially Feb 19-26, along with threats of a GOM/Miller A winter storm. Feb is the most favorable met winter month for cold/snowy in the SE US per non-east based El Niño climo. The last 12 runs of the CFS averaged out have cool to cold dominating the SE US in all 4 weeks of Feb. Although it may be overdone, I can’t recall the last 12 run average of the CFS having a BN SE US in every week. So, it like the Euro Weeklies doesn’t appear to have a cold bias. If that weren’t enough, we’re on the verge of a 10 mb strat wind reversal 1/15-17. Perhaps that is connected to some extent to the -NAO/-AO being progged by the EPS for Feb 12-26. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The maps below are from the brand new 12 run averaged CFS for Feb 11-18, which is during/near prime El Niño climo for a major SE winter storm. GOM/FL SLPs are BN, which then moves to offshore the SE US. Note the coldest anomalies being in the Mid-Atlantic, which appears to be a result of Arctic high pressure going through the Ohio Valley, which would be a perfect track as opposed to a plunge. This all suggests GOM/Miller A potential. Yesterday’s Euro Weekly was similar: 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, GaWx said: The maps below are from the brand new 12 run averaged CFS for Feb 11-18, which is during/near prime El Niño climo for a major SE winter storm. GOM/FL SLPs are BN, which then moves to offshore the SE US. Yesterday’s Euro Weekly is similar: Excellent stuff Larry. Much appreciated. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It is always cold and dry or warm and wet. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We need the Arctic plunges to enter the US in the East, not the West or Plains to eliminate the need for cold to get over the formidable Appalachians. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Miss after miss after miss. We're going to be running out of time all too soon. We are on track to be blanked for the second winter in a row. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We still have time but now looking like February for sure which gets close to if not at winter 4th qtr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Miss after miss after miss. We're going to be running out of time all too soon. We are on track to be blanked for the second winter in a row.I rarely post much, just really enjoy reading and learning. The majority of your posts belong in another forum. Most are written presumably out of frustration and are not constructive. With all due respect.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said: I rarely post much, just really enjoy reading and learning. The majority of your posts belong in another forum. Most are written presumably out of frustration and are not constructive. With all due respect. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Thanks for the hot take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Good luck Winston! We’ve got nothing working just north of RDU but would love to see a snow flurry! Perhaps Friday AM for our brief snow/rain mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, CaryWx said: We still have time but now looking like February for sure which gets close to if not at winter 4th qtr. very much 4th quarter… 2 minute drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: very much 4th quarter… 2 minute drill We know the ending already! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Need Tony the great Romo instead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I disagree with the the February hate. Over the past 30 years, RDU has averaged 2.7" of snow per January. If you take out the 1999-2000 outlier (25"), the average is much lower. Over the same 30 years, RDU has averaged 1.4" of snow per February. Not all that different in the grand scheme of things. Once we get to March, I agree that we are toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, AppalachianWedge said: I rarely post much, just really enjoy reading and learning. The majority of your posts belong in another forum. Most are written presumably out of frustration and are not constructive. With all due respect. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Warm and rain. Cold and dry. There…you learned everything. Oh and GO PACK GO!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Honestly, if you really want snow you need to move north. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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