Coach McGuirk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That's a heavy rainfall risk map..... not a severe thunderstorm map. my bad, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Heavy rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Heavy rainfall Nothing like a heavy east coast rain storm in January to remind you of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 yay more rain! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 Rain storms over the next ten days. Then maybe snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: 4 Rain storms over the next ten days. Then maybe snow? Maybe after the cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 0Z EPS, which is colder than the GEFS, is the coldest run yet overall for midmonth (1/14+) for the C & E US, including 5-10 BN SE. This includes extreme cold anomalies over the C Plains and a very cold Midwest. It implies two Arctic highs coming down into the Plains feeding cold but not plunging into the SE. This of course doesn’t necessarily mean there would be a widespread significant SE winter storm near or just after this cold period (1/14-21+) as widespread big SE winter storms are pretty infrequent. I’m not even saying I’d bet on it. But if there actually would be a 10+ day period averaging 5-10 BN in the SE during mid to late Jan (at/near the coldest climo means of the year) in El Niño, that would imply an above climo chance for SE wintry precip overall, including a significant winter storm chance. What would be best for snow would be for a very cold high to plunge into the Midwest and then move E near the Ohio Valley instead of into TX/OK because it would allow for the chance for moisture to return while it is still cold. Looking at indices, whereas the progged strong right side MJO isn’t at all favorable, the -NAO/-AO keeps the door open. If I get time, I’ll check to see if I can find a big SE winter storm when the MJO was strong on the right. Is the EPS right or is it too cold? I don’t know the answer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 We have a real window of opportunity coming so I hope that we cash in before the pattern relaxes. GFS operational has been showing some long range digital winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: We have a real window of opportunity coming so I hope that we cash in before the pattern relaxes. GFS operational has been showing some long range digital winter weather. Honestly in my opinion we are in a relaxation currently. We've really not got into the meat and potatoes of a favorable pattern. Hell it's only January 6th. We've got a lot of time to see this play out. For most of yall one storm is all yall need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I was referring to the upcoming pattern not now so I definitely agree. A single event will work given that RDU has gone about 700 days now without accumulating snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I was referring to the upcoming pattern not now so I definitely agree. A single event will work given that RDU has gone about 700 days now without accumulating snow. . Yeah I hope everyone can cash in this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: These are often overdone but 30-40 mph seems reasonable. RAH is thinking a potential gravity wave event may occur which would briefly induce higher winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Note: this is likely overdone but gusts to 40 outside thunderstorms are likely. NWS Raleigh also mentions the possibility of a gravity wave event which could locally enhance winds for a short time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: These are often overdone but 30-40 mph seems reasonable. RAH is thinking a potential gravity wave event may occur which would briefly induce higher winds. Right now the highest winds are timed with the slug of moisture. This would elevate the threat beyond what we normally would get from baraclonic winds, along with a small amount of instability. 925mb sustained winds are 65-75 mph around that same frame so some of that would be brought down by any convection. Maybe it could gust to 50 especially East of the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Note: this is likely overdone but gusts to 40 outside thunderstorms are likely. NWS Raleigh also mentions the possibility of a gravity wave event which could locally enhance winds for a short time. Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent. Hard to say exactly where it will setup but they did say the mountains actually have a higher risk of it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z EPS, which is colder than the GEFS, is the coldest run yet overall for midmonth (1/14+) for the C & E US, including 5-10 BN SE. This includes extreme cold anomalies over the C Plains and a very cold Midwest. It implies two Arctic highs coming down into the Plains feeding cold but not plunging into the SE. This of course doesn’t necessarily mean there would be a widespread significant SE winter storm near or just after this cold period (1/14-21+) as widespread big SE winter storms are pretty infrequent. I’m not even saying I’d bet on it. But if there actually would be a 10+ day period averaging 5-10 BN in the SE during mid to late Jan (at/near the coldest climo means of the year) in El Niño, that would imply an above climo chance for SE wintry precip overall, including a significant winter storm chance. What would be best for snow would be for a very cold high to plunge into the Midwest and then move E near the Ohio Valley instead of into TX/OK because it would allow for the chance for moisture to return while it is still cold. Looking at indices, whereas the progged strong right side MJO isn’t at all favorable, the -NAO/-AO keeps the door open. If I get time, I’ll check to see if I can find a big SE winter storm when the MJO was strong on the right. Is the EPS right or is it too cold? I don’t know the answer. Followup on my search for a big SE winter storm when MJO was strong on the right: Couldn’t find any when right side strong like GEFS has (amp 2+) but found 3 big and 2 moderate storms when MJO was right side moderate (like EPS has): -1/24/1991: mod SN ATL-CLT; mod phase 4 -3/13/1993: historic SN for many; mod phase 4 -12/18/1996: mod SN ATL-GSP; mod phase 5 -1/9-10/2011: big storm for many; mod phase 5-6 -1/17/2018: big storm for many; mod phase 4 So, the progged MJO is a negative factor as most of us already knew. However, if it would end up moderate like the EPS instead of the GEFS’ strong, history says that there’d be a shot at a moderate to big winter storm over a good portion of the SE should the SE get as cold as the EPS shows (5-10 BN averaged over up to 10 days). Note that 3 of the 5 were during 1/9-24, in/near the progged cold period and near coldest climo though none were during El Niño. How was NAO/AO/PNA/EPO during these 5? 1. NAO range was -0.3 to +1.3. 2. AO range was wide: -3.4 to +2.2 (3 +, 2 -) 3. PNA range VERY narrow: -0.2 to -0.4 4. EPO range -320 to +60 with 4 of 5 strong - So, weak -PNA and strong -EPO prevailed. None had a moderate or stronger -NAO. AO all over the place. Has anyone seen an EPO prog? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GEFS 12z looks good so far. Operational not so much as it hangs cold out west too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Followup on my search for a big SE winter storm when MJO was strong on the right: Couldn’t find any when right side strong like GEFS has (amp 2+) but found 3 big and 2 moderate storms when MJO was right side moderate (like EPS has): -1/24/1991: mod SN ATL-CLT; mod phase 4 -3/13/1993: historic SN for many; mod phase 4 -12/18/1996: mod SN ATL-GSP; mod phase 5 -1/9-10/2011: big storm for many; mod phase 5-6 -1/17/2018: big storm for many; mod phase 4 So, the progged MJO is a negative factor as most of us already knew. However, if it would end up moderate like the EPS instead of the GEFS’ strong, history says that there’d be a shot at a moderate to big winter storm over a good portion of the SE should the SE get as cold as the EPS shows (5-10 BN averaged over up to 10 days). Note that 3 of the 5 were during 1/9-24, in/near the progged cold period and near coldest climo though none were during El Niño. How was NAO/AO/PNA/EPO during these 5? 1. NAO range was -0.3 to +1.3. 2. AO range was wide: -3.4 to +2.2 (3 +, 2 -) 3. PNA range VERY narrow: -0.2 to -0.4 4. EPO range -320 to +60 with 4 of 5 strong - So, weak -PNA and strong -EPO prevailed. None had a moderate or stronger -NAO. AO all over the place. Has anyone seen an EPO prog? Last I saw was this from the Euro weeklies a couple days ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Considering how much he's enjoyed destroying all our hope the last few years, this is one person I'm glad to see on board lol https://x.com/webberweather/status/1743727117710368793?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Considering how much he's enjoyed destroying all our hope the last few years, this is one person I'm glad to see on board lol https://x.com/webberweather/status/1743727117710368793?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ On cue, the GFS serves up a day 9 overrunning event 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Last I saw was this from the Euro weeklies a couple days ago. So, the 0Z 1/4 EPS was forecasting a strong -EPO for mid Jan, the period I’m analyzing for SE winter storm chances. That would be a pretty big deal if it verifies. 80% of the moderate right side MJO with widespread SE mod to heavy wintry precip had a strong -EPO. This shows an 8 straight day period of sub -150. How often does that occur in any one winter? There have been 40 instances since 1948 or about one every other winter on average. No winter has had more than two. So, if that EPS is right, it would be a pretty big deal, especially when combined with a -AO. But this is all looking to go against a robust MC MJO. The lengthy strong EPO strings fully in Jan were (temps/wintry precip are for SE): 1/10-18/1957: cold (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/18-29/1961: very cold/wintry (+PNA, -AO, neut NAO) 1/15-22/1962: cold/wintry (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/9-31/1963: very cold (+PNA, -AO, -NAO) 1/17-26/1969*: slightly AN (-PNA, -AO, -NAO) 1/1-11/1974: mild (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/1-9/1979: very cold to cool (MJO mod 7-6) (-PNA, -AO, neut NAO) 1/20-28/1991: cold/wintry (MJO mod 3-4) (neut PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/4-14/1993: mild (MJO strong 8-1-2) (-PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/1-9/2005*: warm (MJO mod 4-5) (-PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/14-23/2009: very cold (MJO strong to mod 7-8-1)(+PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/20-28/2014: very cold/wintry (MJO mod 6-7) (+PNA, -AO, +NAO) 1/1-11/2015*: cold (MJO mod to strong 5-6) (neut PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/1-8/2017: cold/wintry (MJO rt side COD) (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) * = El Nino Analysis: - 10 of 14 were cold - 5 of 14 were wintry - MJO: all over the map - +PNA: all 4 very cold - All mild to warm had -PNA but half the -PNAs cold - Twice as many -PNA as +PNA - -AO averaged colder (4 of 5 cold) than the more common +AO but 2/3 of +AO still cold - Only 2 of 14 -NAO and one of those mild - 6 of 7 neut NAO and 3 of 5 +NAO cold Conclusions for upcoming -EPO: - Having a -AO will favor cold - Progged to have weaker -PNA than the 8 -PNAs listed. Thus, I don’t think it would prevent cold though it likely would prevent extreme cold. - Better chance for cold without than with widespread significant wintry precip but that’s no surprise since it is the SE. But 5 of 14 (36%) being wintry beats the odds of most 8-12 day periods in Jan. - And cold looking very likely per EPS. All 5 wintry cases were cold. That’s 5 of 11 (45%) cold cases being wintry. That’s high for the SE for an 8-12 day period in Jan! -Weak -PNA would likely neither hurt nor enhance the wintry chance. -If MJO is strong like what GEFS has, that may hurt wintry chance. Hoping MJO more like EPS. -Oddly enough, -AO/-NAO surprisingly didn’t seem to help with wintry when considering these 14 cases fwiw though I’d still rather have them. Anyone have the latest EPS (or any model) EPO forecast? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z gfs is cold with a chance of snow 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 lol just wanna see the 0z go one tick further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, goldman75 said: lol just wanna see the 0z go one tick further . I just want to see a good snow storm. It has been since January 2018 since the Hampton Roads got a snow storm. 8-14 inches. 40 50 mph winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 3 hours ago, GaWx said: So, the 0Z 1/4 EPS was forecasting a strong -EPO for mid Jan, the period I’m analyzing for SE winter storm chances. That would be a pretty big deal if it verifies. 80% of the moderate right side MJO with widespread SE mod to heavy wintry precip had a strong -EPO. This shows an 8 straight day period of sub -150. How often does that occur in any one winter? There have been 40 instances since 1948 or about one every other winter on average. No winter has had more than two. So, if that EPS is right, it would be a pretty big deal, especially when combined with a -AO. But this is all looking to go against a robust MC MJO. The lengthy strong EPO strings fully in Jan were (temps are for SE): 1/10-18/1957: cold (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/18-29/1961: very cold/wintry (+PNA, -AO, neut NAO) 1/15-22/1962: cold/wintry (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/9-31/1963: very cold (+PNA, -AO, -NAO) 1/17-26/1969*: slightly AN (-PNA, -AO, -NAO) 1/1-11/1974: mild (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/1-9/1979: very cold to cool (MJO mod 7-6) (-PNA, -AO, neut NAO) 1/20-28/1991: cold/wintry (MJO mod 3-4) (neut PNA, +AO, neut NAO) 1/4-14/1993: mild (MJO strong 8-1-2) (-PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/1-9/2005*: warm (MJO mod 4-5) (-PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/14-23/2009: very cold (MJO strong to mod 7-8-1)(+PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/20-28/2014: very cold/wintry (MJO mod 6-7) (+PNA, -AO, +NAO) 1/1-11/2015*: cold (MJO mod to strong 5-6) (neut PNA, +AO, +NAO) 1/1-8/2017: cold/wintry (MJO rt side COD) (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO) * = El Nino Analysis: - 10 of 14 were cold - 5 of 14 were wintry - MJO: all over the map - +PNA: all 4 very cold - All mild to warm had -PNA but half the -PNAs cold - Twice as many -PNA as +PNA - -AO averaged colder (4 of 5 cold) than the more common +AO but 2/3 of +AO still cold - Only 2 of 14 -NAO and one of those mild - 6 of 7 neut NAO and 3 of 5 +NAO cold Conclusions for upcoming -EPO: - Having a -AO will favor cold - Progged to have weaker -PNA than the 8 -PNAs listed. Thus, I don’t think it would prevent cold though it likely would prevent extreme cold. - Better chance for cold without than with widespread significant wintry precip but that’s no surprise since it is the SE. But 5 of 14 (36%) being wintry beats the odds of most 8-12 day periods in Jan. - And cold looking very likely per EPS. All 5 wintry cases were cold. That’s 5 of 11 (45%) cold cases being wintry. That’s high for the SE for an 8-12 day period in Jan! -Weak -PNA would likely neither hurt nor enhance the wintry chance. -If MJO is strong like what GEFS has, that may hurt wintry chance. Hoping MJO more like EPS. -Oddly enough, -AO/-NAO surprisingly didn’t seem to help with wintry when considering these 14 cases fwiw though I’d still rather have them. Anyone have the latest EPS (or any model) EPO forecast? This looks to be playing out on the latest run with a few days of sub 30 degree temps after the over running event on 1/16. With another snow storm moving through the southeast as shown below. Would love 7 days of below freezing weather in south maybe kill some bugs ha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Last I saw was this from the Euro weeklies a couple days ago. The 0Z 1/7/24 EPS mean has maintained the Jan 11-18 period of near or sub -150 (-1.5) EPO that was on this 0Z 1/4/24 run. An 8+ day long period of -150 or lower has occurred about once every two winters on average since 1948 with no winter having more than two of them. The 0Z 1/7/24 EPS run is implying that the low of this period would probably be sub -300. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The Op Euro maintains a SE Ridge throughout the 10 day period. Is this another instance of the cold showing up 2 weeks then it never arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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