GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 0Z GEFS is forecasting towards midmonth easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010. Both of these times, ATL and other areas had measurable snow with 2011 being major in much of the SE US. It is also forecasting a very strong -AO. In addition, it is forecasting a strong MJO phase 4 and moderate -PNA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, GaWx said: The 0Z GEFS is forecasting towards midmonth easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010. Both of these times, ATL and other areas had measurable snow with 2011 being major in much of the SE US. It is also forecasting a very strong -AO. In addition, it is forecasting a strong MJO phase 4 and moderate -PNA. Battle between the PNA, NAO, MJO and AO. I'm still not convinced we get a snowy period though because the PNA seems to be running the show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: Battle between the PNA, NAO, MJO and AO. I'm still not convinced we get a snowy period though because the PNA seems to be running the show. The SE may very well not as snow is so unpredictable and there is a mix of factors. However, sometimes such a strong combo of -NAO and -AO will dominate enough to overcome the others. For example, the Jan 9-11, 2011, big winter storm had a moderate MJO phase 5-6 along with a neutral to slightly -PNA. It did have a potent -EPO, which may be in its forecast. Anyone have a GEFS EPO forecast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Eric Webb: This is the first time all winter that I’ve seen a pattern that has legit potential to produce significant wintry weather in the southern tier of the country. (Mainly talking about near-just after mid-January) It’s still a long shot even in a good pattern, but the ingredients are there. For ex, to get a good storm in the south, you typically like to see the southern edge of the snowpack over the CONUS get down to about the I-70 corridor or so. This is generally what the EPS is forecasting here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z GEFS is forecasting towards midmonth easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010. Both of these times, ATL and other areas had measurable snow with 2011 being major in much of the SE US. It is also forecasting a very strong -AO. In addition, it is forecasting a strong MJO phase 4 and moderate -PNA. It's just unreal how we seldom get the MJO in favorable phases with a formidable -NAO . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 That is one legit block at the end of the GFS run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10. To be perfectly honest they need it considering they need to build their snowpacksSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Does anyone have stats on how often: if we get into Feb w/o measurable snow, how often we strike out for the season? People always argue with me (yes I know it’s happened before), but after Feb 15, things start getting really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 49 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Does anyone have stats on how often: if we get into Feb w/o measurable snow, how often we strike out for the season? People always argue with me (yes I know it’s happened before), but after Feb 15, things start getting really hard. Posted an Eric Webb tweet the other day that said half of all major snowstorms in NC happen after Feb 15th in El Nino years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10. Classic case of the Euro looking worse simply because it only goes out 240. That mid-month time period is exactly when we should expect the blocking to start shifting the cold eastward. Everything over the top still looks great on the Euro though, blocking going bonkers by the end of the run and the NAO retrograding westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hope is perpetually 2 weeks away. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 55 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either. My guess, a period of cold and dry weather mid to late January. Maybe early February we have a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: Hope is perpetually 2 weeks away. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Jumpin January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nikhil Trivedi: After a quiet December, we've entered a very active period of weather which won't be shutting down anytime soon. What will change, however, is who is favored to see snow. This pattern will force a major storm cutting through the Great Lakes (Jan 10), bringing some much needed snow to the Midwest. This storm should push deep into Canada and greatly amplify our -NAO. Our Pacific ridge will build poleward in tandem with this. We start with our retracted jet inducing a Pacific ridge and Western US trough. This frankly ridiculous high-latitude blocking regime should squeeze our polar vortex into Southern Canada, which will likely force an arctic outbreak in the US in 7-10 days. The associated arctic high should force a mountain torque event which intensifies the jet. This should allow our trough to surge east in 10-14 days, opening the door for our next Eastern US snow opportunity. Given the suppressive nature of the Arctic-influenced pattern, it could honestly be one that favors the Southeast for snow. We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This should allow our trough to surge east in 10-14 days, opening the door for our next Eastern US snow opportunity. Another opportunity 10-14 days out. Whopee! The heck with opportunities...I want some ACTION 10-14 hours out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cold keeps shifting west on the ensembles. The clock is ticking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The good news, as that is much needed, is that the snowpack will be building to our north, We need a significant snow pack in the midwest and northern tier if we want significant cold to reach here later this month and early Feb. I'm keeping an eye out one how that major cold dump out west gets handled and if the models start showing it oozing east after the first dump mid next week. Our time is typically mid January to mid Feb anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dr Jonathan Wall: Upper air pattern is favorable for a snowstorm in NC 1/17+ (see analog on right for big NC snows) — there’s just one problem: we need a STJ s/w instead of a northern stream dominate s/w and so far that classic split flow has yet to appear. If pattern holds, possibly 1/20-1/30? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Patience folks. Well know in about 10 days or so where things are headed probably. Can kicking won't mean much after that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Dr Jonathan Wall: Upper air pattern is favorable for a snowstorm in NC 1/17+ (see analog on right for big NC snows) — there’s just one problem: we need a STJ s/w instead of a northern stream dominate s/w and so far that classic split flow has yet to appear. If pattern holds, possibly 1/20-1/30? To build upon this (I'm not J Wall btw lol), if we look at the Teleconnections from the 00z EURO Ensemble, we see hints of this also. First, the PNA. It's been a huge thorn in our side but it finally looks to move positive by JAN 20. This is huge for us, especially in combination with a big -NAO that looks to relax a bit (but still be negative) towards the same period. Per Tomer Burg, winter storms in the eastern U.S. tend to pop up when a -NAO relaxes a bit and we see this happen in that JAN 17-20 timeframe as well: Rounding out our other main teleconnections, both the EPO and AO look to remain negative throughout the period as well. With all that said, perhaps we sneak out a winter storm for the southeast (and possibly up the east coast, Miller A style) in that JAN 15-20ish period. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I got you guys. Headed to Mt Rushmore for a project on the 21st. High temps there starting next week in the single digits. I'll drag that cold pool right on home with me on the 24th for a Burger Boom kind of system. Its coming, it has to be coming. That is an enormous dome of sub zero temps stacking up in the midwest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I got you guys. Headed to Mt Rushmore for a project on the 21st. High temps there starting next week in the single digits. I'll drag that cold pool right on home with me on the 24th for a Burger Boom kind of system. Its coming, it has to be coming. That is an enormous dome of sub zero temps stacking up in the midwest. We appreciate your sacrifice for us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 hours ago, olafminesaw said: No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun Welcome to the new normal, a January east coast thunderstorm threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z gfs says look at my fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 34 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Welcome to the new normal, a January east coast thunderstorm threat. That's a heavy rainfall risk map..... not a severe thunderstorm map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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