Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Bryan63]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Shit 

Can't help but feel like this ship has sailed for us. Warm temps always seem to prevail when they're in the cards 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Fisher loves the warmest model. 

Guy dream of global warming hype pitches for TV


.

[Brewbeer]

impressive posting rates ITT, averaging 25 posts per hour over the last 12

at this rate, 4,000 posts will be ITT before the snow starts flying in New England

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost like he doesn't realize that those models "smooth" that gradient out due to insufficient resolution.

Has Dick Tolleris issued a map?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Never understood this, I could care less about a Jack.

Imagine rooting for the most snow possible on a weather forum....nuts

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Has Dick Tolleris issued a map?

9-12" for most of SNE.

I expect that marine influence line to be just past me down through the I495 belt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost like he doesn't realize that those models "smooth" that gradient out due to insufficient resolution.

I doubt the CF is up by Concord NH initially. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tetris??

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I doubt the CF is up by Concord NH initially. 

Right....that's my point. That is a point to be mentioned, but you also need to specify where you actually think that sets up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tetris??

Nah, some youtube kid beat it lol

[BuildingScienceWx]

Trying to determine if I should stay in CT or head up to my weenie spot in southern VT. I was originally going to stay down here but it's hard to deny the north trend. Front-end looks more exciting in CT (but I'm on the southern edge currently and tainting looks likely), but that h850 easterly flow into VT at 2300' would probably do pretty well. I NEED SNOW in my life. Any suggestions?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, BuildingScienceWx said:

Trying to determine if I should stay in CT or head up to my weenie spot in southern VT. I was originally going to stay down here but it's hard to deny the north trend. Front-end looks more exciting in CT (but I'm on the southern edge currently and tainting looks likely), but that h850 easterly flow into VT at 2300' would probably do pretty well. I NEED SNOW in my life. Any suggestions?

Got to VT

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the 6" contour on those positive depth change maps for the approximate position of the CF.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gives people a much more realistic idea of accumulations they may see when they defer to positive snow depth change in my opinion 

[CoastalWx]

That probably works well near the coast, but will fail in the interior.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Trying to determine if I should stay in CT or head up to my weenie spot in southern VT. I was originally going to stay down here but it's hard to deny the north trend. Front-end looks more exciting in CT (but I'm on the southern edge currently and tainting looks likely), but that h850 easterly flow into VT at 2300' would probably do pretty well. I NEED SNOW in my life. Any suggestions?

Go to Canada. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gives people a much more realistic idea of accumulations they may see when they defer to positive snow depth change in my opinion 

Those typically tend to be too low especially as you move up and in 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Those typically tend to be too low especially as you move up and in 

I think for the CP they are very solid 

[BuildingScienceWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Go to Canada. 

Thanks Jon, but in looking at that positive depth chart, my house is in the bullseye lol. My wife isn't going to like it, but I'll offer to take the kids....

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably works well near the coast, but will fail in the interior.

Yes, but I think even in the interior it provides a prudent floor for accumulation ranges.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think for the CP they are very solid 

So 0” along the entire coastlines of MA, RI and CT?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nothing should be ripped and read...that is why we have forecasters. Each of these tools has value if applied and incorporated into a forecast appropriately.

[radarman]

I'd go 6-10" in the Pioneer Valley.  We always have our red flags and failure modes, but for the most part we've been in the middle of guidance for a while, so might as well be bullish.

[Greg]

It's all going to narrow down to true final storm track and temperature profile of the air columns. A glitch here and a glitch there and one can have a chilly rain mixed with sleet or an all-snow event.

[weathafella]

Just now, Greg said:

It's all going to narrow down to true final storm track and temperature profile of the air columns. A glitch here and a glitch there and one can have a chilly rain mixed with sleet or an all-snow event.

No one off the cape is getting either of those extremes.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thanks Jon, but in looking at that positive depth chart, my house is in the bullseye lol. My wife isn't going to like it, but I'll offer to take the kids....

Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is between 0 to -1C at 975 around BOS. That IMO should be like a 32-33 paste if it comes down good. You would think that shouldn't be a huge issue.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably works well near the coast, but will fail in the interior.

Yeah gonna be too light over interior.