Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And how's this one for reliability? Just not sure myself. 

Not good lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice Krafty look at the end there on RGEM. Most of my eggs in that basket as far as snow goes I think. Unless the front end pounds.

Both NAM and Reggie brought back the better ending in eastern areas. I’m hoping that trend is real and then some of us over interior E MA could pull double digits. 

[Greg]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I’m skeptical Keene only gets 2.7”

If the phase is earlier and the track of the main offshore low is further south, then that can happen. Not likely though with the FV3 model with its southern bias.

[weatherwiz]

Nothing better than the sound of neighbors starting up snowblowers in preparation for the storm. Sometimes multiple neighbors will be doing so at once and it sounds like an symphony.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12" 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both NAM and Reggie brought back the better ending in eastern areas. I’m hoping that trend is real and then some of us over interior E MA could pull double digits. 

It does

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It does

GFS too now. Nice ending. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice.. 

Funny how it went from the weak outlier to the strong one. 

[weathafella]

We take gfs.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d take the gfs here. Would achieve warning criteria anyway 

[MuddyWx]

solid with the kraftian finish

[dryslot]

GYX will have to extend there watches i think.

[weatherwiz]

Think it's becoming clear where the swath of highest totals will be

southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, and central Mass into eastern Mass. 

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is like the antichrist of my methodology...shifting the JP north into my own BY? 

Eh....

You’re in a great spot for this storm. You might not jackpot but you’re gonna be in one of the higher zones. You also have good wiggle room for any last second trends. 

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12" 

Ha, lovely...count on that timing. Need to be in Ridgefield for my kids bball game at 3, should be a great ride back

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not since 2015.

Last year it was All 2 snowfalls that we had and it had the local icestorm here 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Last year it was 

There was no winter last year.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

solid with the kraftian finish

Still a solid look for us in CT. I was a little concerned, but in general we've been in that range of five to 10 in on average for the last several days. If we got more that's just a bonus. But I'm happy with 5 to 10

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Think it's becoming clear where the swath of highest totals will be

southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, and central Mass into eastern Mass. 

I will be happy with my 3-5”

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a great spot for this storm. You might not jackpot but you’re gonna be in one of the higher zones. You also have good wiggle room for any last second trends. 

You'll probably have one hell of a paster.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

So from a trace to 12 inches. I'm glad the models have come to some agreement. 

Don’t be silly.. but a weather on your Willy 

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

solid with the kraftian finish

Kuchera model is eye candy but for realism I'd use the 10-1 ratio for a true forecast. Not the Kuchera

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs tickled south a tad but mainly noise 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs tickled south a tad but mainly noise 

Came north

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You'll probably have one hell of a paster.

Yes thanks 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You'll probably have one hell of a paster.

I really don’t need to lose power. But there’s def like a 1 in 3 shot I do. Hopefully we’re able to turn the flow more NNE faster so that we don’t have as much 31-32F paste. 

[tunafish]

33 minutes ago, PWMan said:

The totals have fluctuated, but that sharp northeastern cutoff near PWM has been consistent. Just looking forward to seeing something at this point.

I will say, there's an OES signal that's been showing up for us down through PSM that get's going 00z Sunday that drops an inch or two before the main event.  That'll help.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes thanks 

Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days

[dryslot]

Just now, tunafish said:

I will say, there's an OES signal that's been showing up for us down through PSM that get's going 00z Sunday that drops an inch or two before the main event.  That'll help.

Yeah, You will have inflow from the ESE so OES is a possibility.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really don’t need to lose power. But there’s def like a 1 in 3 shot I do. Hopefully we’re able to turn the flow more NNE faster so that we don’t have as much 31-32F paste. 

Still don't know what to think here. I'm staying conservative but could be upside if front end really thumps and get that CCB going.