Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Not only is NAM pretty juiced but was looking at some soundings and it has one helluva MAUL. 700-500 lapse rates are quite steep. We get maximized lift in there and snowfall rates could end up being something like 2''+ per hour for a bit somewhere.

question: i used to use this site for vertically averaged f-gen but it seems it hasnt been updated since march 2023, you have an alternative? i know sites like pivotal and some others have 700mb or other layers but i found this one useful because it did like 600-800 vertically averaged frontogensis, tagging @Ginx snewx as well

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Giving what is coming for Wednesday I will take this

I think this is a pretty tough forecast for CT. I guess though it depends on what one is expecting in terms of snowfall totals but I would hedge towards the lower side of the spectrum. 

[dryslot]

Lot of bitterness, Hate to see it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

question: i used to use this site for vertically averaged f-gen but it seems it hasnt been updated since march 2023, you have an alternative? i know sites like pivotal and some others have 700mb or other layers but i found this one useful because it did like 600-800 vertically averaged frontogensis, tagging @Ginx snewx as well

I've been in contact with Walt and the hope is it will be fixed soon. 

I've been mostly using the 700 fronto on the NAM on cod or TT. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Lot of bitterness, Hate to see it.

Ya NAMs are heavy snow to Canada .. Enjoy it.  Always fun for a last second positive trend, sucks for us but we can handle it we are more prone and used to it.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think this is a pretty tough forecast for CT. I guess though it depends on what one is expecting in terms of snowfall totals but I would hedge towards the lower side of the spectrum. 

Take em down? Mesos always do this with southern streamers and they are almost always correct. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya NAMs are heavy snow to Canada .. Enjoy it.  Always fun for a last second positive trend, sucks for us but we can handle it we are more prone and used to it.. 

Brian is in a better position where he is then over this way, I'm not expecting more then 3-6" right now unless other guidance tickle north, Lows moving ENE if then dont get to the Capes Lat don't bode very well here.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

question: i used to use this site for vertically averaged f-gen but it seems it hasnt been updated since march 2023, you have an alternative? i know sites like pivotal and some others have 700mb or other layers but i found this one useful because it did like 600-800 vertically averaged frontogensis, tagging @Ginx snewx as well

You can get fronto on TT. You can do x-sections of it as well although I never figured it out on a tablet…seems you need a mouse.

[CoastalWx]

3K NAM is pretty warm lol. 

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM is pretty warm lol. 

over/under on an inch here?  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is still the nam , so I wouldn’t put that much weight into it 

 

did have a faster secondary vort that caught first piece just in time to get a CCB going for E SNE and SE CNE. Mid levels strengthened quite a bit between 18z and 21z and CCB got established for a few 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take em down? Mesos always do this with southern streamers and they are almost always correct. 

One concern I've always had with this is where will your subsidence zone be? Anytime you are dealing with CCB you're going to have a subsidence zone. I was thinking some days ago we could see two fronto bands develop (one north closer to 700 warm front and one just north of the sfc low). Then it was a question would these two converge, and where? 

I think the one thing we have to watch is how organized this storm becomes...how tightly wrapped do the 850 and 700 lows get? As the system is developing and strengthening, the fronto band is going to be far removed from the lows...so this makes sense that dendrite's area could be in a great spot. But as or if things tighten, we would see the banding drop south, closer to the lows. This is going to be important when looking for the higher amounts across Connecticut. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can get fronto on TT. You can do x-sections of it as well although I never figured it out on a tablet…seems you need a mouse.

I forgot you can do x-sections. I'm pretty sure though you do need a mouse to do them. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM is pretty warm lol. 

Damn

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s still pretty good though esp away from the water. EMAATT does very well.

[Prismshine Productions]

Congratulations Dendrite.

I will gladly take a foot

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Damn

Time for a pope rising from ashes meme

thou I think he said suppressed and Mild

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Time for a pope rising from ashes meme

thou I think he said suppressed and Mild

He had it OTS

[CoastalWx]

We'll ride the 12k.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is still the nam , so I wouldn’t put that much weight into it 

 

did have a faster secondary vort that caught first piece just in time to get a CCB going for E SNE and SE CNE

Hate to say it but that 850 inflow on the NAM is impressive 

[dendrite]

That’s the run that draws Freak in

[SJonesWX]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully I didn’t trigger any canines with that post. The cc reference was just sarcasm. Please don’t bite me.

don't worry, he will be full after he eats all the chickens.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

That’s the run that draws Freak in

The sweater run, You knew it was coming.

[Typhoon Tip]

Clearly sampling difference out west are translating to these morphology ...

The question of NAM's NW bias then re-enters the discussion. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

don't worry, he will be full after he eats all the chickens.

In my town we’re allowed to shoot dogs that attack farm animals. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

When the model runs are good there is a dopamine drip

But remember when they aren’t there is the weather weenie hot line, we are fully staffed give us a call ..before you scream at wife or kids . We have been there and we understand .

[KTBFFH1905]

21 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Giving what is coming for Wednesday I will take this

We have action on Wed in CT? I though the 15th was the next hope.

[KTBFFH1905]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When the model runs are good there is a dopamine drip

But remember when they aren’t there is the weather weenie hot line, we are fully staffed give us a call ..before you scream at wife or kids 

A quick 3 min ice bath with juice those dopamine levels after the model shifts. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, KTBFFH1905 said:

A quick 3 min ice bath with juice those dopamine levels after the model shifts. 

Do you have time to volunteer on the hotline today 

[DJln491]

2 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

We have action on Wed in CT? I though the 15th was the next hope.

We have action alright if you like 3 inches of rain